Food security is the most basic form of security. No, importing food is not acceptable. Ever heard of gouging and American's plan to blockade China? You can live without iPhones or fridges, but you can't last more than a few days without food.
I think this is a very foolish way to look at things. Autarky is generally, not a good thing. You simply make things more expensive for yourself.
Bro, your source shows only a 5% increase in rice yields/acre over 10 years and a 2% increase in overall rice production in 10 years.
Well, you should only be looking a yield. The actual "production" will respond naturally to market forces. If people start preferring wheat products over rice products, rice production will naturally decrease or stay static. So yeah, a 5% increase in yield is significant. What's more, other countries do in fact have greater yields, so we know that production efficiency can be increased even further.
That's not sufficient to support 3 Billion people. Even taking 1999 estimates, a 4% increase in rice production over 20 years will barely make a dent in your carrying capacity.
How long do you think it'll take China to get to 3 billion people? It'll take a lot more than 20 years, I promise you that.
Overdependence on importation of food is a national security risk. Food security is the most basic of securities man, you can't have the US Navy just blockade your ports, and your entire starves to death.
Lol, if the US Navy is blockading your ports to starve you, food security is probably not the biggest concern.
The concept of arable land is widely known, and you are not the first to propose human interventions to expand arable land via irrigation, canals, or $80 Billion
that China is already doing. However, it's extremely expensive to create projects like South-North water transfer projects because of eminent domain and construction costs. People already live on the land that has 'arable potential' or along the pathway of irrigation canals, you either have to bulldoze entire villages, cities, etc...and relocate them with new housing for them. Yes, it is possible with, but difficult and costly to expand arable land area.
If the Chinese population reverses its decline and starts increasing again at a rate of say... 1%, it'll take in excess of 60 years for its population to grow from 1.4 billion to 2.8 billion. So yes, these kinds of engineering and technological marvels are exactly what the party should undertake in order to provide for its future. This is exactly my point, these problems aren't insurmountable. In fact, such solutions should be welcomed, this is whole purpose of technology and human progress.
If China's population in 2023 was 1.8 Billion due to lack of One Child Policy, the GDP per capita would be much much lower. Living standards would be lower. More people is better than less is too simplistic.
On the contrary, I believe that if China's population was greater, your GDP would be higher, your economic growth would be even more meteoric, and living standards would be roughly the same.
You still haven't provided a source for 3 Billion population carrying capacity. You can't just cite 2% "Rice Years" growth, when an average person needs 213 kg of grain, 25 kg of meat, 10 kg of eggs, 6 kg of vegetables, and 8 kg of vegetable oil and sugar each. How much water and grassland for cattle, meat, chicken production?
There was no such study done. But I base my assessment on several factors.
1. China is largely self-sufficient in food right now. I believe the latest projection for 2023 is 650 million tons of grain produced. Which is well in excess of the international minimum of 400 kg.
2. China still hasn't fully mechanized its agriculture.
3. China is still behind in agriculture productivity. Though admittedly, the numbers I've seen are at least a decade old.
Regardless, I still expect China to have
significant room to grow.
I think your outlook is far too pessimistic on Chinese agricultural potential. I believe China is more than capable of being self-sufficient in food even with much larger population than it currently is. But aside from self-sufficiency, there are also a lot of gains to be gained from importing food.
And, I hardly expect US Navy to be capable of blockade Chinese ports anyway
If anything, we (United States) might be getting kicked out of WESTPAC within the next 10 years.