I wouldn’t use a 1999 study to support today’s projections. Chinese yields rice per acre has
gone up.
Bro, your source shows only a 5% increase in rice yields/acre over 10 years and a 2% increase in overall rice production in 10 years.
That's not sufficient to support 3 Billion people. Even taking 1999 estimates, a 4% increase in rice production over 20 years will barely make a dent in your carrying capacity.
And it still hasn’t reached California’s levels. I don’t expect crop yields to grow indefinitely, but there are lots of efficiencies to be gained. Furthermore, food security doesn’t necessitate autarky. There is nothing wrong with importing
Overdependence on importation of food is a national security risk. Food security is the most basic of securities man, you can't have the US Navy just blockade your ports, and your entire starves to death.
As I understand it, admittedly I did not study agriculture economics, but with access to people who do, the main “bottleneck” isnt land. There is plenty of land. The issue is water, and getting water to places where you want to farm. That’s a problem that can be solved with technology and investment, something China is stellar at.
The concept of arable land is widely known, and you are not the first to propose human interventions to expand arable land via irrigation, canals, or $80 Billion
that China is already doing. However, it's extremely expensive to create projects like South-North water transfer projects because of eminent domain and construction costs. People already live on the land that has 'arable potential' or along the pathway of irrigation canals, you either have to bulldoze entire villages, cities, etc...and relocate them with new housing for them. Yes, it is possible with, but difficult and costly to expand arable land area.
I just don’t think that China has a population problem. Its generally better to have more people rather than less people. And while I dont think that China is facing a “demographic apocalypse” like most Western pundits, I do think its an area of concern and that the one child policy was not a good solution.
If China's population in 2023 was 1.8 Billion due to lack of One Child Policy, the GDP per capita would be much much lower. Living standards would be lower. More people is better than less is too simplistic.
Sure, but I dont attribute India’s problems to its population size. I attribute it to their weak and inefficient government. China had a billion people since like 1980 when it was very poor compared to today. China lifted itself up through hard work and smart reform that harnessed their people’s desire to build a better future. India can do the same.
In my opinion, China shouldn’t be afraid of having a large and stable population, whether its 2 billion or 3 billions. Our planet’s resources are limited, but we’ve barely begun to tap into them. Don’t be a Malthusian. Western “anti-growth” sentiment spearheaded by economic illiterates like Greta Thunberg is one of the most harmful Western ideological exports.
You still haven't provided a source for 3 Billion population carrying capacity. You can't just cite 2% "Rice Years" growth, when an average person needs 213 kg of grain, 25 kg of meat, 10 kg of eggs, 6 kg of vegetables, and 8 kg of vegetable oil and sugar each. How much water and grassland for cattle, meat, chicken production?