The Russian is playing for time. And he knows exactly what he's going to achieve. Ukraine's Crimea, that's out. General Shandor tames optimism
"I am skeptical that there is any chance that by autumn Ukraine will have regained the territories it lost, firstly after 2014 and secondly after 24 February last year," says General Andor Shandor, a renowned security adviser and former head of the country's Military Intelligence Service. He speaks of a war of attrition. "The Russians are playing brutally for time and they know well what they will achieve."
While the West is talking about supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary, behind the scenes there is talk of a war ultimatum for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the German daily Bild reports. According to the newspaper, this will be to pressure Kiev if the Ukrainian counter-offensive is unsuccessful and Ukraine fails to recapture the occupied territories by autumn.
"First. Personally, I am sceptical that there is any chance that by autumn Ukraine will recapture the territories it lost, firstly after 2014 and secondly after February 24 last year. Secondly. Western support is also limited in that everything Ukraine asks for to be successful the West either cannot or will not give it. Cannot give is about not having the equipment and especially the ammunition that the Ukrainians would need. The armies are already at their limits. Then there are weapons systems that we don't want to give it, that is, aircraft and other equipment, when we refer to the fact that they don't need it. See Biden's latest comments on F16s," comments security advisor General Andor Shandor.
Sándor sees a dilemma between how we politically support Ukraine and show something that we are not able to fulfill. How public PR is at odds with what we are able or willing to do. “It's very controversial to say whether we should support Ukraine long enough to win before the Russians break it all. We have a number of politicians who believe that Ukraine can win, and any other opinion is ostracized. On the other hand, the option that Ukraine does not have to win is being realistically considered," described Sándor, who reminds us that Russia is a country used to hardship. "A country that has far greater potential, both military and human. It is a country that, unfortunately, has not suffered as much from the sanctions. At the same time, we should say that Russia is not isolated at all. There are many more countries that have not acceded to sanctions. Even Turkey, a country of the North Atlantic Alliance, did not accede to sanctions," Sándor said. “Russia is capable of continuing the conflict for much longer than Ukraine. Therefore, I can imagine that it has two dimensions. One politically open, but also the other, when there may be challenges. It is possible that Biden's trip to Kyiv on February 20 was also about starting to consider a different solution than insisting that Ukraine liberate its entire territory this year. Unrealistic," he added.
The security adviser describes the situation on the battlefield as follows: "Although the Ukrainians recorded some tactical successes, they had successes at the operational level, they liberated the Kharkiv region and part of the Kherson region. Unfortunately, they are not winning at the strategic level."
The North Atlantic Alliance could offer Ukraine a security agreement that would make available to Kiev more modern military technology after the end of the war with Russia. This should prompt Kiev to start truce talks with Russia. But is it realistic? “Finding a way aka smart burner. Will it not be NATO membership, but something more than neutrality or some other form of cooperation? I'm afraid that, of course, one of the reasons for the illegal Russian invasion was Russian objections to the militarization of Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia will like this. We can argue that the Russians have nothing to do with it. But practically, the Russians are trying to destroy the country so that it is not militarized. They fear that an attack on the Russian Federation could be launched from the territory of Ukraine," Sándor said.
A security treaty would not carry as much weight as full membership in the Alliance. Thus, Ukraine would not be covered by the obligation of mutual defense between NATO countries, and the North Atlantic Alliance's soldiers would not be permanently stationed in the country. However, the greater availability of modern Western weapons could deter Moscow from further attacks on a neighboring country.
"I do not think that this is the way to resolve the conflict so that Russia does not interfere in the events in Ukraine. Russia has been interfering in events in Ukraine since 2008, when Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance began to be considered. It is some kind of solution. The question is whether the Ukrainians themselves will do it. In principle, it means that they will leave part of the territory to Russia," said Sándor. "In the rhetoric presented by Zelenskyi, it would require a great statesmanship decision to favor some other way of seeing the end of the conflict, to take into account that the prolongation of the conflict will lead to thousands and thousands more dead, wounded and maimed and the destruction of the country. I understand that the Ukrainians do not want to give up the territory. But if they do not have the power to reverse Russian aggression, then it is appropriate to think about other ways to end the conflict. Sunak's proposal could contribute to this. Although I am skeptical that it could be implemented somehow," he added.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was supposed to come up with the proposal. According to the media, Germany and France also agreed. But is it likely? At the same time, the considerations behind the scenes are in sharp contrast to the speeches of US President Joe Biden and other Western leaders who emphasize unity against Russian aggression. "I don't see it as very happy. I'm not sure how Russia would react to this," Sándor added.
What China is proposing is unacceptable to the US
China has now called on Ukraine and Russia to negotiate a ceasefire and has come up with a twelve-point plan to end the war. The Americans swept that off the table. "It shows that what China is proposing is unacceptable to the US, that is to admit that Russia will get all the territories it has conquered, that the sanctions will be lifted... It would mean that Russia would have a free hand and everything at its disposal, which had before the invasion began. Of course, if the peace plan were accepted by everyone, it would increase China's role," Sándor said, adding that China knows very well why it does not want a weakened Russia. "Together with Russia, they will create an effective balance. In my opinion, the US is unnecessarily creating a big enemy out of China, although I understand that China has a number of security problems both with India and including the much-discussed Taiwan. That they mark China as the main adversary for the next decade and at the same time tie their hands in Russia does not strike me as an ideal policy," he added. And he recalled the events of the past: "I think it is a repetition of exactly the same mistake that George Bush Jr. made, when, although he had designated Iran as a country of the axis of evil, he invaded in 2003 to remove Saddam Hussein from the government, who was a counterweight in Iraq Shiite Iran. In doing so, he catapulted Iranian influence in the Middle East, leading to disruption in the Middle East, which I didn't think was brilliant. Rather, it seemed completely stupid to me. Politics should be done a little more sensibly. Not creating so many enemies at once. Then it is difficult to deal with it as a whole," he pointed out.
"Russian tactics are deadly for Ukrainian troops."
In the direction of Bachmut, the situation becomes more and more complicated. And what or who does he think will matter how the war ends? "Russian tactics are deadly for Ukrainian troops. They keep the Ukrainian troops in touch with daily artillery shelling and short sorties, forcing them to fight without a break, maximum loss of human lives occurs, on both sides. There is a wear roller. Ukrainians can hardly rest, which complicates the state of the Ukrainian army. It is an attrition tactic on the part of the Russians to make it impossible for the Ukrainians to prepare a spring counter-offensive, on which the further fate of the country could depend," said Sándor. "Contrary to the expectations of many of us, when we thought we would see some big encircling operations of the Russian army, they rather choose this path of daily exhaustion. Ukrainian resources are not unlimited. We see that the promises of technology deliveries are not being fulfilled in terms of numbers, and are delayed. The Russian plays brutally for time and knows very well what he will achieve by doing so. A number of experts and the Americans are appealing to the Ukrainians to stop defending Bakhmut and exhausting themselves in this area, and rather concentrate the limited forces they have to improve their position on the battlefield somewhere else. The idea that Russia will lose Crimea is unrealistic at the moment," concludes the security adviser.