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Sardaukar20

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This is yet another proof that the Chinese media are not some blind 'CCP' propaganda media. Even the 'notorious' GT reports bad news here and then. Chinese media does report both the good and the bad news coming out of China. They just don't sensationalize the news.

Obviously, the first negative population growth in 61 years is generally not good news. Nevertheless, this problem is not necessarily a terminal problem for China. Japan, South Korea, and Western Europe are all in the same boat. Some are in even worse shape than China.

The main issue of shrinking population that the Western economists always argue about is the shrinking availability of a productive workforce. But China is ahead of the West in AI R&D and application. China is already starting to fix this issue decades ahead of any potential crisis point. All while the West, Japan, & SK, who they themselves are in an even more dire demographic situation are doing relatively little to address it. India, with its still booming population is the obvious candidate by the West to replace China's declining workforce. But when China manages to finally reenergize its production with automation and AI, it is going to bring manufacturing costs down so low, even low-waged workforce is gonna find it hard to compete. So things are gonna kinda balance out for China eventually.

China's demographic decline is also not terminal. The West argues that China is not a place that is attractive for immigration. That is not true, there are many people from around the world who are enjoying their life and career in China. Its just that China has strict immigration rules. As a rule of thumb, China does not give citizenship to foreigners. However, if things get truly desperate for China, which I doubt it'll ever be. Then China can still open up citizenship options to worthy foreigners. Also, China could encourage fellow overseas Chinese to return to the motherland. Most of them still retain strong family connections with China.

P.S. With regards to the India vs China demographics dividend BS story. I have an unusual example to argue against it: fireworks production. India is a major fireworks producer, but its still not in the top 15 list. Indians burns alot of fireworks for their Diwali festival. To produce them, India relies on a large, low-wage manual workforce. So India can produce fireworks at very cheap prices. But India still cannot produce nearly enough for world-wide exports. In China OTOH, since their manufacturers are innovative, and have started to introduce some basic automation. They have maintained their economies of scale. Their fireworks prices have dropped by alot over the decades, some are even up to more than half. China was, and still is the undisputed leader in firework production, not because of raw manpower, but because of innovation. And innovation is something that India is truly lacking. Modi is also making new generations of Indians turn to religion more than science, so good luck to India. Let's see how far India have come in the next 10-20 years time.
 

jwnz

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Are they serious or is this just made-up crap from the notoriously anti-China Business Insider? Are they trying give Russians the idea that the Varyag is Russian territory like Ukraine so Russia goes to war with China over an abandoned unfinished carrier?
Equally interesting is reading the comments, people are using the opportunity to look down on China, you know the usual China can't develop nor innovative, can only copy and steal, so will always be behind the US, and how the 11 US carrier groups will kick everyone's ass protecting the democracy of allies, etc.

And I was thinking... hopefully the Pentagon planners and Washington politicians think the same.
 

eprash

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm more concerned about my own country When 4th industrial revolution inevitably kicks in what are we supposed to do with all those jobless young people, it might result in instability and crime, UBI only works if you have enough capital and huge industrial output to subsidize it, We don't have neither
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
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This is yet another proof that the Chinese media are not some blind 'CCP' propaganda media. Even the 'notorious' GT reports bad news here and then. Chinese media does report both the good and the bad news coming out of China. They just don't sensationalize the news.

Obviously, the first negative population growth in 61 years is generally not good news. Nevertheless, this problem is not necessarily a terminal problem for China. Japan, South Korea, and Western Europe are all in the same boat. Some are in even worse shape than China.

The main issue of shrinking population that the Western economists always argue about is the shrinking availability of a productive workforce. But China is ahead of the West in AI R&D and application. China is already starting to fix this issue decades ahead of any potential crisis point. All while the West, Japan, & SK, who they themselves are in an even more dire demographic situation are doing relatively little to address it. India, with its still booming population is the obvious candidate by the West to replace China's declining workforce. But when China manages to finally reenergize its production with automation and AI, it is going to bring manufacturing costs down so low, even low-waged workforce is gonna find it hard to compete. So things are gonna kinda balance out for China eventually.

China's demographic decline is also not terminal. The West argues that China is not a place that is attractive for immigration. That is not true, there are many people from around the world who are enjoying their life and career in China. Its just that China has strict immigration rules. As a rule of thumb, China does not give citizenship to foreigners. However, if things get truly desperate for China, which I doubt it'll ever be. Then China can still open up citizenship options to worthy foreigners. Also, China could encourage fellow overseas Chinese to return to the motherland. Most of them still retain strong family connections with China.

P.S. With regards to the India vs China demographics dividend BS story. I have an unusual example to argue against it: fireworks production. India is a major fireworks producer, but its still not in the top 15 list. Indians burns alot of fireworks for their Diwali festival. To produce them, India relies on a large, low-wage manual workforce. So India can produce fireworks at very cheap prices. But India still cannot produce nearly enough for world-wide exports. In China OTOH, since their manufacturers are innovative, and have started to introduce some basic automation. They have maintained their economies of scale. Their fireworks prices have dropped by alot over the decades, some are even up to more than half. China was, and still is the undisputed leader in firework production, not because of raw manpower, but because of innovation. And innovation is something that India is truly lacking. Modi is also making new generations of Indians turn to religion more than science, so good luck to India. Let's see how far India have come in the next 10-20 years time.
Bro again perfect analysis Bravo!!!, from my observation, huge population is antithetical for innovation and China is an exception. From India to the Philippine I see gov't revenue going to public services and less on innovation, due to lack of basic scientific infrastructure, most of them had to work and further their career abroad resulting to Brain drain at a huge cost of public money educating them. Leaving the uneducated contributing less to the society so instead of demographic dividend, we become an exporter of cheap labor.:(
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm more concerned about my own country When 4th industrial revolution inevitably kicks in what are we supposed to do with all those jobless young people, it might result in instability and crime, UBI only works if you have enough capital and huge industrial output to subsidize it, We don't have neither
The real losers of the 4th Industrial Revolution are the developing countries

They are truly screwed because for all these decades they have been growing their economies by the developed countries offloading low-value industries to them so they can buy these goods in low prices

Now however, with increased automation, developed countries can afford to keep these industries thus cutting off the Global South's way to industrial development.

Btw, you are right to worry about India. India thought that it could be the second China, but that's impossible. The West won't allow that, the 4th industrial revolution won't allow it, its' politics won't allow it
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
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India has
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To be fair, Jugaad works. All developing nations have their own version of Jugaad. The Chinese did plenty of their own Jugaad when times were not so prosperous. Chinese farmers had their famous the 2-wheel tractor which the have used even to this day. But the Chinese have moved on to more modern stuff like AI tractors and agri-drones. While the Indians are still mostly stuck in Jugaad mode.
 
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