That's a good thing in your view? That a Russian entrepeneur had to start one of the biggest social media apps in the world outside of Russia, in order for it to be succesful? You might have your own way of looking at things, but the CEO of Telegram was pretty clearcut that he felt Russia is no place for starting a business.
He started VKontakte. A Facebook clone. It was being used to organize mass protests in Russia which wanted to overthrow the Russian government. He claimed the Russian government wanted him to hand out contact details of the protest organizers and he balked at it. The Russian government said they did not want any contact information, they just wanted him to block those conversations. This is in the court records which are public which pretty much corroborate what government public speakers said. At this point he was already a minority shareholder in VKontakte. Later he said he was resigning in a post online. The board of the company then kicked him out. He claimed he was not being serious when he posted he was resigning. The board gave him a boatload of money for his remaining shares and did not reinstate him back. So he went to sulk with his billions in the UAE and founded Telegram there. Telegram since its founding has blocked conversation streams as ordered by the US and EU in order to not be blocked in those jurisdictions.
Consider what happened in the US after the White House protests when protester conversations were not just blocked but information of the protesters was given to the government for prosecution. In China there is also no way VKontakte would be allowed to operate like it did when he was there. Pavel Durov became a billionaire in Russia with his first business, he sold his remaining stake in VK to Russian investors for $1.5 billion USD when he left. So it is quite rich for him to say Russia isn't a place to start a business in.
And? As long as the current policies in Russia continue, there's unlikely to be a normalization of relations with the West and thus point still stands that those tech workers will unlikely come back. As for what's left in Russia, all they have left to work with is the Russian market and a few ex-Soviet states. Which is pretty tiny and unlikely to give further rise to globally competitive companies.
About the same population as Japan. And there are a lot more people speaking Russian in ex-USSR. Unlike Japan where basically no one outside Japan speaks Japanese. It remains a decent market. As for "globally competitive" good luck doing that with SWIFT sanctions. They tried to blackhole Russia. They also removed Russian websites from Western hosting companies, and deleted their security certificates from Western certificate autorities. Try to visit a lot of websites, and it will claim they are a security hazard, because the West deleted their HTTPS certificate. And they also refuse to accept Russian certificate authorities in the web of trust. The West cut several ties from the Russian Internet to the West in major backbones, so if you try to access Russian websites the speed will slow down to a crawl.
The US has also tried to block Syria from the Internet in the past so it might happen to Russia in the future as well. At the same time they want to operate Starlink in Russia without permission from the Russian government.
No, the head of Russian Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media said that 80% of the Russian IT workers who left the country continue working in Russian companies, so it had little to do with SWIFT.
Russian companies with Western clients.
From the article, he also said that the number of IT workers who left the country and did not return is 10% of total. For example, around 30-40% of Yandex's employees are working outside of Russia right now according to Vedomosti's source.
Some might have left because they did not want to be drafted as well. Which is why the Russian government made sure IT workers won't be drafted. Not that you would want a bunch of chair sitting geeks in the field with an AK-47 anyway. But for the most part the main reason was the SWIFT ban. I know people who work in the IT sector in Russia and they are still working there. Russian company with Russian clients.
Yandex has plenty of foreign customers. Those Yandex employees, Yandex have a huge business doing cloud services in Europe for clients outside Russia. Most of the people you talk about are doing precisely that.
Another interesting thing - Russian government says that 85% of the IT workers who initially left the country eventually returned, which means that at the peak around 70% of the IT workforce were out of the country. That's pretty crazy unless the government has wrongly estimated the percentage of people who returned.
I don't see how you can extrapolate the second number from the first but whatever.
Russia meanwhile was already superpower, screwed it up once, and are miraculously on the path to screwing it up for the second time. They have fewer options to grow their economy and their demographics are even worse than China's. Point is, compared to China Russia's trajectory for sometime has only been downhill.
Sure but their demographics aren't any worse than in Europe. Or whites in the US for that matter.
Well I didn't say only Russia, I said the market Russia multinationals cater to in addition to Russia were the former Soviet countries, which is still in the end a tiny market. There are bigger markets than the West? Well no shit, everyone knows today that China is the biggest market in the world. In which case okay, do you forsee in the future Russia coming up with a smartphone brand, tech app, electric vehicle, or home appliance that Chinese will absolutely go gaga over compared to their own brands? Maybe one day a Mandarin version of Yandex will come swooping in, eat Baidu's lunch, and I'll eat my words.
China itself cannot do smartphones under US sanctions, see what happened to Huawei, so what do you expect Russia with its much smaller market to do really. Russia as a main market for electric vehicles will never make sense. Electrics have lower range in cold climates and Russia's vast distances make electrics a lot less useful than in other places. Outside Moscow or St. Petersburg they will always be just a curiosity. Also, I don't know about you but I use a lot of Yandex services. War Thunder and DCS are also pretty successful Russian games. So whatever. With the sanctions, especially the SWIFT sanctions, it will be hard for companies in Russia to continue to operate in the global market anyway. What is the point in operating services you cannot profit from?
But with the brain drain that Russia has experienced, in conjunction with the existing corruption, cronyism, and the greater control over ideaology and nationalism that Putin has exerted on the country, none of this exactly screams, "I want to start my groundbreaking business here!"
Actually, were I any younger I might have migrated to Russia. IT companies are currently exempt from paying taxes. IT workers are exempted from the draft and they qualify for low interest loans when they want to buy a house. Houses are really cheap in Russia as it is. Food and fuel are also cheap. The Western software companies all left the market so there is little competition. Seems like a great place to start a software company to be honest.
Yeah, Russia still has a ton of nukes and produces a lot of food.
That makes Russia a gas station, not a superpower.
That is what Obama said. The truth is Russia produces pretty much everything. They produced more cars than France and roughly twice as many cars as Italy before the sanctions. They might be cheap cars but they produced them. Right now their car production is probably on the level of Italy with the sanctions, but should recover in 2 years time. Production of small cars dropped to 25% of last year's level one month after the sanctions hit but right now it is back up to 50%. Will likely be 80% next year and 100% the year after that.
I don't even know what this sentence means buddy. But as for you last few points you make. Aviation? 2 years ago perhaps one could've said Russia was still competitive in fighter jet engines, but now that China has the WS-10 and soon to have the WS-15, its not the case anymore.
Russia is still doing better in jet engines overall. Where is the comparable engine to the VK-2500? Or the PD-14? No in service Chinese engines have TVC and the latest Chinese engines are only now approaching Russian engines from a decade ago like the Al-41F1 in terms of performance. The Su-57 engine came out originally in 2010. Chinese manufacturers claim "much better" lifetime of variants of WS-10A by comparing with the original variant of Al-31 engine from the 1970s. A disingenuous comparison. You think that means China has caught up in jet engines already. I think it will take another 5 years. And that is assuming China continues to speed up their pace of engine development as they have been doing.
The PD-35 is probably a good example of what to expect in terms of materials from latest generation Russian combat jet engine technology when it comes out. Ceramic matrix composites in the hot parts, and composite fan blades.