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emblem21

Major
Registered Member
The square-jawed Qin Gong is blunt and doesn't mince words. That's why he is denigrated by some as the "wolf-warrior" diplomat.

Today's fine example of Western "values":
Men's prison should provide tampons:

Children's drag show:
Hmmmm, okay, this is friggen disgusting. I have never understood nor supported this whole LGBTQ bullsh!t but encouraging this sort of nonsense into children, who ever is teaching the future generation this is ok, they should hurry up and GTFO. I know some in this forum might support this kind of thing but sure hope that the majority isn’t trying to force others to accept this nonsense
 
D

Deleted member 23272

Guest
Considering this is a China focused forum, I'll just end it with these thoughts.
It is foremost Nuclear Power, food production
Yeah, Russia still has a ton of nukes and produces a lot of food.
its energy industry delivery in harsh circumstance is second to none in all directions
That makes Russia a gas station, not a superpower.
has all the right demographics for growth for things that matter like Aviation, semicon, Food production
I don't even know what this sentence means buddy. But as for you last few points you make. Aviation? 2 years ago perhaps one could've said Russia was still competitive in fighter jet engines, but now that China has the WS-10 and soon to have the WS-15, its not the case anymore. As for commercial airlines, Russia still relies on Boeing and Airbus. Semiconductors? Nevermind TSMC, is there an equivalent to SMIC in Russia?
It built a society that is very attractive to Gulf Arabs.
What? Uh, I think its Russians flooding into Dubai, rather than the other way around. Plus while China is hardly a soft power juggernaut, at the very least Saudi Arabia has mandated Chinese language education in its schools, where's the same for Russian?
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Considering this is a China focused forum, I'll just end it with these thoughts.

Yeah, Russia still has a ton of nukes and produces a lot of food.

That makes Russia a gas station, not a superpower.
Remove Oil and Gas from US and see what happens.
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I don't even know what this sentence means buddy. But as for you last few points you make. Aviation? 2 years ago perhaps one could've said Russia was still competitive in fighter jet engines, but now that China has the WS-10 and soon to have the WS-15, its not the case anymore. As for commercial airlines, Russia still relies on Boeing and Airbus. Semiconductors? Nevermind TSMC, is there an equivalent to SMIC in Russia?
Engine is not some random thrust. You have to practically show what it can carry. Like Egyptian MIGs can lift 5 external fuel tanks with buddy refueling. There expectation of reliability and use is very different the higher the income level.
I will reserve my opinion on Civil aviation engines. Unless a Plane is fully tested in Mideast environment. SSJ is like half tested.
World will still rely on Western design chips whether its inside Apple, Intel or Samsung. so it does not change anything in medium term.
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What? Uh, I think its Russians flooding into Dubai, rather than the other way around. Plus while China is hardly a soft power juggernaut, at the very least Saudi Arabia has mandated Chinese language education in its schools, where's the same for Russian?
Mandate does not mean people will learn it to actually adopt it. Some things are mandate from Government. Some things are beneath the surface.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
That's a good thing in your view? That a Russian entrepeneur had to start one of the biggest social media apps in the world outside of Russia, in order for it to be succesful? You might have your own way of looking at things, but the CEO of Telegram was pretty clearcut that he felt Russia is no place for starting a business.
He started VKontakte. A Facebook clone. It was being used to organize mass protests in Russia which wanted to overthrow the Russian government. He claimed the Russian government wanted him to hand out contact details of the protest organizers and he balked at it. The Russian government said they did not want any contact information, they just wanted him to block those conversations. This is in the court records which are public which pretty much corroborate what government public speakers said. At this point he was already a minority shareholder in VKontakte. Later he said he was resigning in a post online. The board of the company then kicked him out. He claimed he was not being serious when he posted he was resigning. The board gave him a boatload of money for his remaining shares and did not reinstate him back. So he went to sulk with his billions in the UAE and founded Telegram there. Telegram since its founding has blocked conversation streams as ordered by the US and EU in order to not be blocked in those jurisdictions.

Consider what happened in the US after the White House protests when protester conversations were not just blocked but information of the protesters was given to the government for prosecution. In China there is also no way VKontakte would be allowed to operate like it did when he was there. Pavel Durov became a billionaire in Russia with his first business, he sold his remaining stake in VK to Russian investors for $1.5 billion USD when he left. So it is quite rich for him to say Russia isn't a place to start a business in.

And? As long as the current policies in Russia continue, there's unlikely to be a normalization of relations with the West and thus point still stands that those tech workers will unlikely come back. As for what's left in Russia, all they have left to work with is the Russian market and a few ex-Soviet states. Which is pretty tiny and unlikely to give further rise to globally competitive companies.
About the same population as Japan. And there are a lot more people speaking Russian in ex-USSR. Unlike Japan where basically no one outside Japan speaks Japanese. It remains a decent market. As for "globally competitive" good luck doing that with SWIFT sanctions. They tried to blackhole Russia. They also removed Russian websites from Western hosting companies, and deleted their security certificates from Western certificate autorities. Try to visit a lot of websites, and it will claim they are a security hazard, because the West deleted their HTTPS certificate. And they also refuse to accept Russian certificate authorities in the web of trust. The West cut several ties from the Russian Internet to the West in major backbones, so if you try to access Russian websites the speed will slow down to a crawl.
The US has also tried to block Syria from the Internet in the past so it might happen to Russia in the future as well. At the same time they want to operate Starlink in Russia without permission from the Russian government.

No, the head of Russian Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media said that 80% of the Russian IT workers who left the country continue working in Russian companies, so it had little to do with SWIFT.
Russian companies with Western clients.

From the article, he also said that the number of IT workers who left the country and did not return is 10% of total. For example, around 30-40% of Yandex's employees are working outside of Russia right now according to Vedomosti's source.
Some might have left because they did not want to be drafted as well. Which is why the Russian government made sure IT workers won't be drafted. Not that you would want a bunch of chair sitting geeks in the field with an AK-47 anyway. But for the most part the main reason was the SWIFT ban. I know people who work in the IT sector in Russia and they are still working there. Russian company with Russian clients.
Yandex has plenty of foreign customers. Those Yandex employees, Yandex have a huge business doing cloud services in Europe for clients outside Russia. Most of the people you talk about are doing precisely that.

Another interesting thing - Russian government says that 85% of the IT workers who initially left the country eventually returned, which means that at the peak around 70% of the IT workforce were out of the country. That's pretty crazy unless the government has wrongly estimated the percentage of people who returned.
I don't see how you can extrapolate the second number from the first but whatever.

Russia meanwhile was already superpower, screwed it up once, and are miraculously on the path to screwing it up for the second time. They have fewer options to grow their economy and their demographics are even worse than China's. Point is, compared to China Russia's trajectory for sometime has only been downhill.
Sure but their demographics aren't any worse than in Europe. Or whites in the US for that matter.

Well I didn't say only Russia, I said the market Russia multinationals cater to in addition to Russia were the former Soviet countries, which is still in the end a tiny market. There are bigger markets than the West? Well no shit, everyone knows today that China is the biggest market in the world. In which case okay, do you forsee in the future Russia coming up with a smartphone brand, tech app, electric vehicle, or home appliance that Chinese will absolutely go gaga over compared to their own brands? Maybe one day a Mandarin version of Yandex will come swooping in, eat Baidu's lunch, and I'll eat my words.
China itself cannot do smartphones under US sanctions, see what happened to Huawei, so what do you expect Russia with its much smaller market to do really. Russia as a main market for electric vehicles will never make sense. Electrics have lower range in cold climates and Russia's vast distances make electrics a lot less useful than in other places. Outside Moscow or St. Petersburg they will always be just a curiosity. Also, I don't know about you but I use a lot of Yandex services. War Thunder and DCS are also pretty successful Russian games. So whatever. With the sanctions, especially the SWIFT sanctions, it will be hard for companies in Russia to continue to operate in the global market anyway. What is the point in operating services you cannot profit from?

But with the brain drain that Russia has experienced, in conjunction with the existing corruption, cronyism, and the greater control over ideaology and nationalism that Putin has exerted on the country, none of this exactly screams, "I want to start my groundbreaking business here!"
Actually, were I any younger I might have migrated to Russia. IT companies are currently exempt from paying taxes. IT workers are exempted from the draft and they qualify for low interest loans when they want to buy a house. Houses are really cheap in Russia as it is. Food and fuel are also cheap. The Western software companies all left the market so there is little competition. Seems like a great place to start a software company to be honest.

Yeah, Russia still has a ton of nukes and produces a lot of food.
That makes Russia a gas station, not a superpower.
That is what Obama said. The truth is Russia produces pretty much everything. They produced more cars than France and roughly twice as many cars as Italy before the sanctions. They might be cheap cars but they produced them. Right now their car production is probably on the level of Italy with the sanctions, but should recover in 2 years time. Production of small cars dropped to 25% of last year's level one month after the sanctions hit but right now it is back up to 50%. Will likely be 80% next year and 100% the year after that.

I don't even know what this sentence means buddy. But as for you last few points you make. Aviation? 2 years ago perhaps one could've said Russia was still competitive in fighter jet engines, but now that China has the WS-10 and soon to have the WS-15, its not the case anymore.
Russia is still doing better in jet engines overall. Where is the comparable engine to the VK-2500? Or the PD-14? No in service Chinese engines have TVC and the latest Chinese engines are only now approaching Russian engines from a decade ago like the Al-41F1 in terms of performance. The Su-57 engine came out originally in 2010. Chinese manufacturers claim "much better" lifetime of variants of WS-10A by comparing with the original variant of Al-31 engine from the 1970s. A disingenuous comparison. You think that means China has caught up in jet engines already. I think it will take another 5 years. And that is assuming China continues to speed up their pace of engine development as they have been doing.

The PD-35 is probably a good example of what to expect in terms of materials from latest generation Russian combat jet engine technology when it comes out. Ceramic matrix composites in the hot parts, and composite fan blades.
 
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In my opinion, the NATO scenario is to destroy conventional Russian forces in Ukraine, including Crimea, which will cause massive discontent in Russia and the overthrow of Putin. I think NATO already has a scenario for a Russian Maidan after the Russian army is defeated in Ukraine and installing a puppet after Putin.

On that note, a few days ago I came across this thread on Twitter from a Chinese perspective.

You should read the whole thread:

defense of Ukraine is a Elensky affiliated account, a US vassal that deserves to be crush.

Phead128 said:
Looks like that twitter post got deleted? If that is truly an Official Ukrainian Gov't account, then China must have protested :)

China protested:

Ukraine deleted tweet:

Code:
Ukraine gave up very quickly lol.
Click to expand...
does not change that Elensky regime is a US vassal and undeserving of China goodwill.
 

def333

New Member
Registered Member
There has been much talk on Chinese (and HK) internet that Russia and China have reached some sort of agreement for China to invest in eastern Siberia particularly regarding agriculture and industries. Russia has no one but China, and there is no turning back (towards the west) for them, while China gets ample natural resources.

This has been talked about for years, but given current conditions, it might be true this time. Nothing official yet, let's hope we hear something soon.
Our investment cooperation is developing positively. The portfolio of the Intergovernmental Russian-Chinese Commission includes 79 significant and promising projects. The estimated value of the investments exceeds $160 billion, primarily in the field of mineral extraction and processing, industrial production, infrastructure construction and agriculture.

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D

Deleted member 23272

Guest
He started VKontakte. A Facebook clone. It was being used to organize mass protests in Russia which wanted to overthrow the Russian government. He claimed the Russian government wanted him to hand out contact details of the protest organizers and he balked at it. The Russian government said they did not want any contact information, they just wanted him to block those conversations. This is in the court records which are public which pretty much corroborate what government public speakers said. At this point he was already a minority shareholder in VKontakte. Later he said he was resigning in a post online. The board of the company then kicked him out. He claimed he was not being serious when he posted he was resigning. The board gave him a boatload of money for his remaining shares and did not reinstate him back. So he went to sulk with his billions in the UAE and founded Telegram there. Telegram since its founding has blocked conversation streams as ordered by the US and EU in order to not be blocked in those jurisdictions.

Consider what happened in the US after the White House protests when protester conversations were not just blocked but information of the protesters was given to the government for prosecution. In China there is also no way VKontakte would be allowed to operate like it did when he was there. Pavel Durov became a billionaire in Russia with his first business, he sold his remaining stake in VK to Russian investors for $1.5 billion USD when he left. So it is quite rich for him to say Russia isn't a place to start a business in.


About the same population as Japan. And there are a lot more people speaking Russian in ex-USSR. Unlike Japan where basically no one outside Japan speaks Japanese. It remains a decent market. As for "globally competitive" good luck doing that with SWIFT sanctions. They tried to blackhole Russia. They also removed Russian websites from Western hosting companies, and deleted their security certificates from Western certificate autorities. Try to visit a lot of websites, and it will claim they are a security hazard, because the West deleted their HTTPS certificate. And they also refuse to accept Russian certificate authorities in the web of trust. The West cut several ties from the Russian Internet to the West in major backbones, so if you try to access Russian websites the speed will slow down to a crawl.
The US has also tried to block Syria from the Internet in the past so it might happen to Russia in the future as well. At the same time they want to operate Starlink in Russia without permission from the Russian government.


Russian companies with Western clients.


Some might have left because they did not want to be drafted as well. Which is why the Russian government made sure IT workers won't be drafted. Not that you would want a bunch of chair sitting geeks in the field with an AK-47 anyway. But for the most part the main reason was the SWIFT ban. I know people who work in the IT sector in Russia and they are still working there. Russian company with Russian clients.
Yandex has plenty of foreign customers. Those Yandex employees, Yandex have a huge business doing cloud services in Europe for clients outside Russia. Most of the people you talk about are doing precisely that.


I don't see how you can extrapolate the second number from the first but whatever.


Sure but their demographics aren't any worse than in Europe. Or whites in the US for that matter.


China itself cannot do smartphones under US sanctions, see what happened to Huawei, so what do you expect Russia with its much smaller market to do really. Russia as a main market for electric vehicles will never make sense. Electrics have lower range in cold climates and Russia's vast distances make electrics a lot less useful than in other places. Outside Moscow or St. Petersburg they will always be just a curiosity. Also, I don't know about you but I use a lot of Yandex services. War Thunder and DCS are also pretty successful Russian games. So whatever. With the sanctions, especially the SWIFT sanctions, it will be hard for companies in Russia to continue to operate in the global market anyway. What is the point in operating services you cannot profit from?


Actually, were I any younger I might have migrated to Russia. IT companies are currently exempt from paying taxes. IT workers are exempted from the draft and they qualify for low interest loans when they want to buy a house. Houses are really cheap in Russia as it is. Food and fuel are also cheap. The Western software companies all left the market so there is little competition. Seems like a great place to start a software company to be honest.


That is what Obama said. The truth is Russia produces pretty much everything. They produced more cars than France and roughly twice as many cars as Italy before the sanctions. They might be cheap cars but they produced them. Right now their car production is probably on the level of Italy with the sanctions, but should recover in 2 years time. Production of small cars dropped to 25% of last year's level one month after the sanctions hit but right now it is back up to 50%. Will likely be 80% next year and 100% the year after that.


Russia is still doing better in jet engines overall. Where is the comparable engine to the VK-2500? Or the PD-14? No in service Chinese engines have TVC and the latest Chinese engines are only now approaching Russian engines from a decade ago like the Al-41F1 in terms of performance. The Su-57 engine came out originally in 2010. Chinese manufacturers claim "much better" lifetime of variants of WS-10A by comparing with the original variant of Al-31 engine from the 1970s. A disingenuous comparison. You think that means China has caught up in jet engines already. I think it will take another 5 years. And that is assuming China continues to speed up their pace of engine development as they have been doing.

The PD-35 is probably a good example of what to expect in terms of materials from latest generation Russian combat jet engine technology when it comes out. Ceramic matrix composites in the hot parts, and composite fan blades.
Well thank you for all that. Thing is though, I was debating with two other members about whether Russia, despite all that has passed and assuming Putin continues to govern until the end of his life, can still be a globally competitive economic force on the level of Japan or Germany, nevermind China and America. Your post has aptly argued that Russia punches above its weight, but considering your acknowledgments that being kicked out of SWIFT and being sanctioned have hurt Russia's ability to compete globally, my point still stands.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Bro we need something to talk about so why not raise the issue to find a settlement? like I said from this discussion maybe we might conjure up a Code of Conduct in the SCS that will nullify the FON of the Collective West ( there will no legal obligation for them to be there as we the competing party reach an agreement) and sign an oil deal. ;) A person to person talk with substance is better to create mutual trust rather than telegraphing it to virtual signaling...lol
Dude creating a hotline can be interpretted as attempt to maximize antagonising but short of going to war. US wanted a hotline to China but was declined for this reason. If they (Philipine) do not intent to escalate to dangerous level there is no need for hotline.

Just because the other candidate is worse don't make this guy good. He is a western stooge and other guy is a western puppet.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Well thank you for all that. Thing is though, I was debating with two other members about whether Russia, despite all that has passed and assuming Putin continues to govern until the end of his life, can still be a globally competitive economic force on the level of Japan or Germany, nevermind China and America. Your post has aptly argued that Russia punches above its weight, but considering your acknowledgments that being kicked out of SWIFT and being sanctioned have hurt Russia's ability to compete globally, my point still stands.
BRICS signaled the intent to create alternative systems to the US dominated global finance system based on the IMF, World Bank, USD dollar/treasuries, and SWIFT as time went by. They started with the New Development Bank to replace the World Bank, but unfortunately the BRICS replacement for SWIFT which Russia was pushing for after the invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the Iranian sanctions never went anywhere. Instead we see countries making their own national payments systems. China had one, India made one, Russia made one. The systems are not interlinked however and there is a high chance the US might threaten those countries who do interconnect to a parallel global system with a cut from SWIFT. But if such a system is created and does pick up adoption eventually, then the SWIFT sanctions might become more or less irrelevant for that part of the world.

As for IT the BRICS nations of Russia, India, and Brazil have all pretty large software development consultancy services. The main weakness of the block is semiconductor fabrication in general. If China can solve that and be a supplier of semiconductor technology for the whole block then these countries can be independent of the US led block if they want to. FYI Brazil tried and failed to be independent in terms of IT for several decades. They used to have, and still have, steep tariffs on imports of electronics products to promote fabrication in Brazil. India is similar. They never went anywhere in a big way however. Because of the weakness in the tools sector.
 
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TK3600

Major
Registered Member
BRICS signaled the intent to create alternative systems to the US dominated global finance system based on the IMF, World Bank, USD dollar/treasuries, and SWIFT as time went by. They started with the New Development Bank to replace the World Bank, but unfortunately the BRICS replacement for SWIFT which Russia was pushing for after the invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the Iranian sanctions never went anywhere. Instead we see countries making their own national payments systems. China had one, India made one, Russia made one. The systems are not interlinked however and there is a high chance the US might threaten those countries who do interconnect to a parallel global system with a cut from SWIFT. But if such a system is created and does pick up adoption eventually, then the SWIFT sanctions might become more or less irrelevant for that part of the world.

As for IT the BRICS nations of Russia, India, and Brazil have all pretty large software development consultancy services. The main weakness of the block is semiconductor fabrication in general. If China can solve that and be a supplier of semiconductor technology for the whole block then these countries can be independent of the US led block if they want to. FYI Brazil tried and failed to be independent in terms of IT for several decades. They used to have, and still have, steep tariffs on imports of electronics products to promote fabrication in Brazil. India is similar. They never went anywhere in a big way however. Because of the weakness in the tools sector.
I wont worry about threat of cut. SWIFT is the much bigger system, the cut is doing more damage to itself than harming Chinese system. In fact, it is the reason alternative system gained any traction at all.
 
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