I read a story (段子) about recent Negev summit in ME. Better treat it as a weekend entertainment unless you can verify with your own source. So here we go:
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Earlier this week, the top diplomats from Egypt, Morocco, Bahrain, the UAE and the United States arrived in Israel at the invitation of Israeli Foreign Minister.
US was seeking support from the other parties for taking Iran off the list of state-sponsored terrorism, which is the bottom line of Iran returning to JCPOA. The other parties went livid, worrying that would allow Iran to use its old (terrorist) tactics against them. US was trying really hard to convince them that they all need Iran to stabilize the energy markets. Otherwise, EU (Germany in particular) would be incurring ever higher economic costs and shat would be hitting lots of fans. And the other ME parties went nuts on this request.
This was the backdrop before the summit when UAE and Saudi refused to take calls from Biden.
So JCPOA is not being stalled by Russia, as western MSM led me to think. It was the US allies in the region who absolutely abhors the idea of letting Iran out of its cage now.
So how would this relate to the war in Ukraine right now? Well, US hopes that Iran would let the west buy some time on energy crisis before Russia is defeated.
But even if Russia is defeated in a few weeks, how would rekindling JCPOA help calm the same energy markets? Iran's current capacity cannot remotely make up the gapping hole left by Russia. And we all know that energy infrastructure is notoriously time consuming for construction.
If this scenario were to occur, (lots of big IFs but be that as it may), why would I see shadows of ChinaChinaChina...... all over the places......
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Have a nice weekend.
