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victoon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Zli said:
The Asian Tigers have the fastest emerging markets growth, ever. And in any case, China is growing at 5.5% *this year* and economic development tends to have a downward directionality on growth anyway so growth 13 years out is going to be substantially below 5.5%.
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China's economy is NOT growing at 5.5% this year. 5.5% is the government's goal. And this modest goal is inline with the desire to carry out economic transition to the next phase of higher quality and value added development, even though it depresses growth in the short term.
I just don't see how Tiger's growth can inform China's future growth. so I will not be responding to this line of argument anymore.
Post WWII US' growth has been declining. But very slowly. so I'd say it likely will take 30-50 years for China's growth rate to drop to 3%.
Zli said:
China has obvious headwinds to the downsides: technological embargo, tariffs and demographics that the Tigers didn't have and no real upsides that the Asian Tigers didn't have (higher human capital, competent public bureaucracies, urbanization & higher savings rates - all the Tigers had)
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Like I said huge market and (increasing) control of core tech. I would also add centrally located among the highest growth part of the world economy and highly integrated and most complete supply chain within its borders.
Zli said:
Economic growth is why America is the hegemon and able to deprive Chinese people of better livelihoods.
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so far the US and China have benefited from each other's trade and interactions. If you are referring to US embargos and sanctions, every action prompt a reaction. sure there will be some short pain. But IF the Chinese people rise up to the challenge, it would be a net gain in the longer term (space station, GPS, as examples). But of course, success is not guaranteed. my personal view is that the US has been pushing China to work harder and never be complacent. not a bad thing.
 
supercat

supercat

Major
victoon said:
China's economy is NOT growing at 5.5% this year. 5.5% is the government's goal.
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Since the trend for RMB is appreciation, the effective growth rate probably will be 6-8% next year, depending on how much the RMB appreciates. By the same token, Chinese economy probably will grow more than 5% a year effectively on average for the next decade.

Without China's cooperation, the effects of sanctions against Russia won't be clear-cut:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502081170955243521

It's such BS that "we hate your government only, not your people". Asian-Americans will be in big trouble if hostilities break out between China and the U.S.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502059827173986304
 
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