Miscellaneous News

Turkey has delusions of grandeur. They will get squashed like their currency - the lira's drop has been even worse than the collapse of the rouble in 2014-2016. Rouble went from 34.44 roubles per USD in June 2014 to the peak of 76.34 in March 2016 - i.e. around ~2.22x depreciation over almost 2 years, while the lira depreciated 2.11x times in just 3.5 months...

There’s nothing more dangerous than an upstart mediocre nation with delusions of grandeur and a chosen people myth， just look at imperial Japan

DarkStar said:

There’s nothing more dangerous than an upstart mediocre nation with delusions of grandeur and a chosen people myth， just look at imperial Japan

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Partially agree but their weak power projection means that they will be mostly confined to their neighborhood, not China. Considering that the EU is hostile to China, then a new troublemaker on their borders is a win.

To add to my previous post:
It's actually even worse than I assumed, the lira was 6.96 per USD in late Feb 2021, and now it's 17.49 per USD now, i.e. 2.51x drop over 10 months span.

xypher said:

Turkey has delusions of grandeur. They will get squashed like their currency - the lira's drop has been even worse than the collapse of the rouble in 2014-2016. Rouble went from 34.44 roubles per USD in June 2014 to the peak of 76.34 in March 2016 - i.e. around ~2.22x depreciation over almost 2 years, while the lira depreciated 2.11x times in just 3.5 months...

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Erdogan has publically said that he wants Turkey to follow China's model to become an export oriented country.

Someone please tell him that while China was poor it didn't pretend to be a superpower or whatever. Instead it sat back and quitely worked for decades while trying to be as a friendly as possible with all countries

Here, the stable genious Erdogan is making enemies out of everyone while starting the transition to the Chinese model..

Also someone tell him that businesses also want to have stability in order to invest money. With Turkish Lira in free fall every day, you are entering hyperinflation territory where everyone is jumping on the train of raising prices by double digits every month or so
This is spiralling out of control now.

I saw one analyst saying that if a weaker currency was all that was required to grow a country, Zimbabwe would already be a superpower lol

Sardaukar20 said:

I doubt there would be any war between the West and Erdogan's Ottoman Empire anytime soon. The West is just too powerful for Erdogan to fight against. My prediction is that Erdogan will flip-flop again. He always does that. I do think that he will betray China one day. He could play the Uighur card again like he did back in 2009. The Grey Wolves, TIP and ETIM are his pet terrorists. He could resume supporting them again against China at any time. It'll help to progress his Pan-Turkic agenda, while at the same time defuse a lot of the tensions with the West. The West would see him as a useful tool to destabilize China, and so they'll suddenly become great friends with him again.

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Turkey has never respected China and considered China to be their friends. They always have hostile attitude against China. Turkey never gave up Ottoman 2.0 and East-Turkestan dreams. Currently, Turkey is silent and avoid using Xinjiang problems to insult China, because they need Chinese money and technology.

First: Turkey tries to blackmail China in the Aircraft Carrier event. China has conceded Turkey with agreements related to investment and tourism

Second: Turkey shows friendly face, cheating China MLRS technology transfer.

Third: Turkey continues to deceive China in the HQ-9 bidding agreement. The truth is that Turkey wants to use China to put pressure on, forcing other countries to transfer the entire air defense technology and vice versa.

Fourth: Turkey repeated old tricks, wanting China to transfer them all Type-081's designs and technologies

And now, Turkey began to care about China's 5th generation aircraft technology and they wanted money from China

AssassinsMace said:

Erdogan does want Make Turkey Great Again and that means a return to the glory of the Ottoman Empire and that means not being a lap dog

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Ottoman Empire was by itself lapdog. so i am not sure what is that Great again.
The richest person in Ukraine is Volga Tartar. Does he really invest in Turkey? or does he even look like current Turkish cabinet?. there are plenty other turkic that stay away from it.

Overbom said:

Erdogan has publically said that he wants Turkey to follow China's model to become an export oriented country.

Here, the stable genious Erdogan is making enemies out of everyone while starting the transition to the Chinese model..

Also someone tell him that businesses also want to have stability in order to invest money. With Turkish Lira in free fall every day, you are entering hyperinflation territory where everyone is jumping on the train of raising prices by double digits every month or so
This is spiralling out of control now.

I saw one analyst saying that if a weaker currency was all that was required to grow a country, Zimbabwe would already be a superpower lol

Click to expand...

Indeed, the whole "this is fine, we want more exports" narrative while the currency is crashing is just a coping mechanism, really. Weak currency sure benefits the exports but there is a significant difference between currency going down 2.5 fold and a slow controlled depreciation to strengthen exports... your standards of living take a massive nosedive, real wages go into severe depression (because they simply cannot grow fast enough to dampen the effects of currency crash), etc. Even the manufacturers take a hit because they most likely import a lot of shit to produce something and a currency crash drastically raises the costs.

Erdogan is just another populist like Modi who tries to rile up Jai Turks for votes.

xypher said:

Indeed, the whole "this is fine, we want more exports" narrative while the currency is crashing is just a coping mechanism, really. Weak currency sure benefits the exports but there is a significant difference between currency going down 2.5 fold and a slow controlled depreciation to strengthen exports... your standards of living take a massive nosedive, real wages go into severe depression (because they simply cannot grow fast enough to dampen the effects of currency crash), etc. Even the manufacturers take a hit because they most likely import a lot of shit to produce something and a currency crash drastically raises the costs.

Erdogan is just another populist like Modi who tries to rile up Jai Turks for votes.

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There are a lot of similarities between him and Modi indeed.

BoraTas said:

There are a lot of similarities between him and Modi indeed.

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@BoraTas Sir a cautionary tale, Turkey is being prime for a Colored Revolution and Edrogan is foolish enough to give the US the ammunition to implement it. I'm afraid of the outcome, whatever opinion you have of Edrogan, he is a nationalist and popular , If removed by People power or Maidan type coup like what happen in Ukraine, we will have a civil war and it will set back Turkey a decade to recover.

It’s all rather simple, but pretty astonishing how so many do not get it and/or choose to ignore it.

As soon as your leaders reject hard data and inconvenient truths and indulge in wishful thinking and drink their own kool aid BS about how exceptional they are, then you are in trouble.

This has happened to everyone and can happen to anyone and applies to everything from economics to military to pandemic prevention.

In this instance, Turkey got itself into this mess by thinking they are too special for economic norms and realities. Since then they have only doubled down with more Micky mouse economics so is it any wonder things are going from bad to worse?

The same is happening to India under Modi. And the only reason America has managed to get away with a lot of its own Micky Mouse BS nonsense is because they are in the unique position of having the dollar as the global reserve currency and have controlling influence in mass media and key international institutions so they can change the rules and hide the truth in a way no one else can. But even with all that, even America can only suspend reality so far.