Japanese culture is such that they try to cover up negative stuff and focus on future
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Why are the so-called American "China EXPERTS" are so arrogantly DUMB and historically ignorant?
Wait what she just invested in BYD and Xpeng stock. Lol.
There is a Chinese saying for this: 爱国是生意，出国是生活
Oh I agree with that. Craziness is definitely not good for national development and can be considered paranoid. Lets be real though: every government is paranoid. However, I'm firmly against the idea of them being irrational. In my opinion, North Korean government has to consider several variables that even I as an ordinary citizen can think of:
1. South Korea can exploit the hypothetical reformation process to overthrow them. One can argue that China faced the same situation for Taiwan. While China was placed in a scenario like that for a while, Taiwan ultimately either never had any ambitions to reunify or was restricted from attempting to reunify. South Korea does though to this day. A color revolution may never occur like you said, but a North Korean reformation can create cracks like disgruntled officials, stalls in the reformation process and other unforeseen variables that an enemy nation can exploit.
2. Who would support them and provide a safe space for them to reform? The Russians are too poor despite what their ultranationalists claim. The Chinese can't force even South Korea to bend to its will (until recently, but even that's unclear). Sure, both of those nations covertly supported North Korea despite it being sanctioned, but that's not enough to provide a safe space to perform massive reforms. While China faced an even more dire situation in the 80's and early 90's, the Chinese had a couple of advantages the North Koreans didn't have: the US's need for China's pressure on the USSR and the sudden changes in the Middle East. North Korea has none of that.
3. North Korea has neither the historical clout nor the size to shrug off any attempts to destabilize it. China's size and the US's trauma from the Korean War protected China from any attempts for a successful Taiwan independence or reunification.
All of the above cast doubt on a successful North Korean reformation. Its easy for us to say "Just reform bro", but if you look at China's reformation process, it wasn't a walk in the park either and was, as a matter of fact, dangerous and difficult. In short, North Korea cannot reform as of now. Craziness is the only strategy they got.
South Korea can't exploit a hypothetical reformation process if no South Koreans are allowed in. It could be limited to friendly/neutral countries so the risk is manageable.
Remember they actually stopped most foreign contacts even prior to COVID.
And you don't want massive reforms. You want to test them before rolling out nationwide and implement in manageable chunks.
I think North Korea is big enough to start properly reforming at low-risk
Especially if China approves (which it will)
China is the big brother who is holding the sky for N.Korea.
If N.Korea cannot reform under such favourable circumstances, then it is "doomed" economically. S.Korea, China and the rest of the world will keep advancing while it remains stuck behind the world
Don't forget that at the beginning N.Korea had a larger economy than S.Korea. Look at the situation now, and then make a prediction about its future based on the world entering the 4th Industrial Revolution.
That it is stagnating so much only proves that its political system is not working. Instead of learning from China it tries to do its own thing which predictably leads to failure
I don't know, maybe it doesn't care anymore because it knows China will always protect it. If that's their thinking then it is correct, as China is also comfortable in this role.
In the end this is a win-win. Win for China and Win for Kim. As for the N.Korean people, that's another story for another time
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