You're pretty ignorant when it comes to those matters for sure.
EU can do better or worse without Russia - some countries will lose some money for sure but it won't be dangerous for them. Russia for sure can't do without Europe - I mean without natural resources (gas) export to EU for sure. They tried to play with embargos on things from EU in the past against some countries and it bite them in the ass more than anyone else.
Tell that to European farmers. The Russian counter sanctions were a massive hit. There were shortages in Russia as a result for like 1-2 years but Russian agribusiness supplies all their needs now, and Russia are even exporting their food surplus to the Middle East.
Russia produces more wheat today than the Soviet Union did when it still had Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Those European producers were not as lucky and a lot of them went bankrupt. The pork and poultry suppliers for example.
Russia isn't Saudi Arabia and a lot of the gas is used in their own economy to produce goods and services. If Europe doesn't want cheap gas, then industry will move towards where the cheap energy is. This is already happening to a degree.
So now they leveraged their only true trump card in their hand - oil and gas prices which Russia intentionally raised just before the winter in Europe and emptied their reserves in EU countries recently.
That is bullshit. You are reading too much Western propaganda. Russia's Gazprom wants long term stable fixed gas price contracts. This way they can properly fund gas field expansion and pipeline network construction. It is the EU which started a natural gas stock exchange in Amsterdam and bought the US propaganda about cheap US LNG. Guess what, that US LNG previously being sold below cost is now gone, with US both reducing its production and exporting what they do have towards Asian customers more willing to pay. At the same time both the Netherlands and Norway gas production is shrinking. Geez, just like Gazprom had warned for at least five years now, and used as rationale to build Nord Stream 2. The EU made its own mess here. Russia is for the most part not seeing benefit from those stock market gas price increases because they are locked into long term gas supply contracts. It is mostly the LNG speculators who are profiting. Gazprom has limited exposure to the LNG market to begin with. They mostly sell gas via pipe.
Once EU and Russia will agree on something else the border crisis will be ended. The only loser here will be of course Belarus because they will have to deal with the blowback (sanctions and thousands of illegal immigrants from Middle East countries). The EU eastern border's control will be even tighter than ever before with money and resources invested finally in those matters and Russia will happily resume gas export through Poland/Belarus and the new Nord Stream pipe for a hefty sum of money.
Russia is building gas pipelines to China. If Europe doesn't want the gas, there is a much larger market available. Power of Siberia 2 aka Soyuz Vostok will be connected to the same Yamal gas fields which export gas to Europe. They will be able to switch gas from one customer to the other at the flick of a switch.
That's how it works. Russia won't start a war in Baltic countries or against Poland unless it's put against a wall - similar to Japan-US relation in the early 40's though the gas exporter roles are reverted.
Russia does not need any more dependents to feed.
Putin already lost one satellite state - Ukraine and we all knew that he won't let that happen to Belarus no matter what. It will take some decades but there's no going back for Ukraine - the EU countries opened more for Ukrainians and now they see difference between their fellows like Czech Republic/Slovakia/Poland/Romania that was made in the past 30 years. Same goes for Belarus - if people were allowed to chose they of course would take closer ties with EU over Russia.
Ukraine is now the poorest country in Europe and is at the level of some African countries. There was a massive population exodus from Ukraine to all over Western Europe. Millions of people. If that is winning, well, you have a funny concept of winning.
And Baltic states/Poland aren't pushovers. Though Baltics are rather small they have healthy economies and Poland is growing stronger every year.
They might have pretensions but in case of conflict they just lack strategic depth. In case of full scale conventional war they wouldn't last a week. But like I said, Russia isn't interested in feeding dependents. It is much better to keep their mineral wealth to themselves thank you very much.
Would I call this Russia's success in politics over last 20-25 years? It depends probably on how you define success but I would say no.
They are doing as well as they can with the crummy hand they have been dealt with. If things were like the US wanted the Caucasus would have split into an Islamic Caliphate and the Russian Federation would have further disintegrated with perhaps Siberia being next.
Russian citizens don't live lives of luxury but they are way, way, better off than they were in the late 90s.