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B.I.B.

Captain
One interesting point to make is that while the situation in regards to the domestic situation hasn’t gotten so bad as of yet, the longer the government fails to address the current cargo ship crisis, border crisis, covid crisis and socio-economic crisis, somethings is eventually going to give and the resulting chaos maybe an even greater God send for the world (obviously not for the USA but this is a crisis brought onto itself by its incompetent leadership)
Cant see it happening in the way you have been describing.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
One interesting point to make is that while the situation in regards to the domestic situation hasn’t gotten so bad as of yet, the longer the government fails to address the current cargo ship crisis, border crisis, covid crisis and socio-economic crisis, somethings is eventually going to give and the resulting chaos maybe an even greater God send for the world (obviously not for the USA but this is a crisis brought onto itself by its incompetent leadership)
@emblem21 bro to answer lets make a comparison what is the barometer for appointing a gov't official. In Xi China MERITOCARCY in Biden Woke American its Incompetency. Which ever party wins in the 2024 presidential election the same thing will happen cause the Americans are BEREFT of Competent Leadership to choose from, it permeated from the top downward with political mobility is being restricted and CONTROLLED by the elites (lobbyist).
 
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horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Here is an acknowledgement that the US has come to realization of China rise and is in damage control and in my estimation an acceptance of equal may happen sooner with a JARGON of managing China rise appearing in major Western MSM maybe in 2025. Here I want to express my view on each 5 pillar.

Says Biden creating what Dean Acheson called “situations of strength” with 5 pillars.
1 - Strengthen US at home
This is what the Elite establishment or the deep state wanted, Strengthen their power at home, making the Jan 6 as an excuse and making America a police state. Focus is on the home front boys, China is merely a distraction and I'm happy for it may take the heat off China for another 10 years as the problem at home intensify , here American exceptionalism is warranted , they will be assertive and fight for their rights, as quoted from poet William butler Yeats "Center cannot hold Anarchy is the only Hope".

2 - Alliances
With major focus at home, the alliances are expect to carry half the load of US international commitment is a questionable strategy especially with conflicting and incoherent policy. Also where will the money coming from?

3 - Rejoin & reshape international institutions
Trust is broken and America is view as non compliant actor, Also there are new actors around and are BIG and influential, meaning they will have a hard time convincing people.

4 - Tilt military-diplomacy balance more towards diplomacy
Here I take my hats off to whoever official suggested it cause it's the right strategy instead of boxing themselves into a corner with bluff and threats.

5 - Set terms for competition with China
with a weaker hand "FORGET ABOUT IT"

Yeah brother, cannot disagree.

Maybe we can even summarize it down further.

Pillars 1 thru 4, that essentially throwing money at the problem. That is kind of a typical Liberal tax and spend policy, throwing money at the problem. Today it is more like print the money to throw at the problem.

With pillars 1 thru 4, if anywhere it involves foreigners, and the foreigners do not comply, then the coercion starts again. Forcing TSMC and Samsung to reveal their trade secrets and underwear, that is what they wanted, when they could not get what they wanted.

Last pillar 5, that is the strangest one of all. When China joined the WTO, it gave all the concessions. The United States set the rules. Then China excelled in this globalized environment. The rules of globalization was set by the United States. Even with the trade war, which was started by the United States, they set new rules with that trade deal. In Afghanistan, everything was set up by the United States, even their retreat. The Americans routinely ignore history. All these events all happen under the rules set by the United States. Now they say they will set more rules.

Guess this time it will be different! :p

These five pillars of how the United States will deal with China can be summarized into three principles.

1. Throw money at the problem.
2. Use coercion.
3. Ignore history.

Then the Liberal media would praise this plan.

:oops:
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
You're pretty ignorant when it comes to those matters for sure.

EU can do better or worse without Russia - some countries will lose some money for sure but it won't be dangerous for them. Russia for sure can't do without Europe - I mean without natural resources (gas) export to EU for sure. They tried to play with embargos on things from EU in the past against some countries and it bite them in the ass more than anyone else.

Tell that to European farmers. The Russian counter sanctions were a massive hit. There were shortages in Russia as a result for like 1-2 years but Russian agribusiness supplies all their needs now, and Russia are even exporting their food surplus to the Middle East.
Russia produces more wheat today than the Soviet Union did when it still had Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Those European producers were not as lucky and a lot of them went bankrupt. The pork and poultry suppliers for example.

Russia isn't Saudi Arabia and a lot of the gas is used in their own economy to produce goods and services. If Europe doesn't want cheap gas, then industry will move towards where the cheap energy is. This is already happening to a degree.

So now they leveraged their only true trump card in their hand - oil and gas prices which Russia intentionally raised just before the winter in Europe and emptied their reserves in EU countries recently.

That is bullshit. You are reading too much Western propaganda. Russia's Gazprom wants long term stable fixed gas price contracts. This way they can properly fund gas field expansion and pipeline network construction. It is the EU which started a natural gas stock exchange in Amsterdam and bought the US propaganda about cheap US LNG. Guess what, that US LNG previously being sold below cost is now gone, with US both reducing its production and exporting what they do have towards Asian customers more willing to pay. At the same time both the Netherlands and Norway gas production is shrinking. Geez, just like Gazprom had warned for at least five years now, and used as rationale to build Nord Stream 2. The EU made its own mess here. Russia is for the most part not seeing benefit from those stock market gas price increases because they are locked into long term gas supply contracts. It is mostly the LNG speculators who are profiting. Gazprom has limited exposure to the LNG market to begin with. They mostly sell gas via pipe.

Once EU and Russia will agree on something else the border crisis will be ended. The only loser here will be of course Belarus because they will have to deal with the blowback (sanctions and thousands of illegal immigrants from Middle East countries). The EU eastern border's control will be even tighter than ever before with money and resources invested finally in those matters and Russia will happily resume gas export through Poland/Belarus and the new Nord Stream pipe for a hefty sum of money.

Russia is building gas pipelines to China. If Europe doesn't want the gas, there is a much larger market available. Power of Siberia 2 aka Soyuz Vostok will be connected to the same Yamal gas fields which export gas to Europe. They will be able to switch gas from one customer to the other at the flick of a switch.

That's how it works. Russia won't start a war in Baltic countries or against Poland unless it's put against a wall - similar to Japan-US relation in the early 40's though the gas exporter roles are reverted.

Russia does not need any more dependents to feed.

Putin already lost one satellite state - Ukraine and we all knew that he won't let that happen to Belarus no matter what. It will take some decades but there's no going back for Ukraine - the EU countries opened more for Ukrainians and now they see difference between their fellows like Czech Republic/Slovakia/Poland/Romania that was made in the past 30 years. Same goes for Belarus - if people were allowed to chose they of course would take closer ties with EU over Russia.

Ukraine is now the poorest country in Europe and is at the level of some African countries. There was a massive population exodus from Ukraine to all over Western Europe. Millions of people. If that is winning, well, you have a funny concept of winning.

And Baltic states/Poland aren't pushovers. Though Baltics are rather small they have healthy economies and Poland is growing stronger every year.

They might have pretensions but in case of conflict they just lack strategic depth. In case of full scale conventional war they wouldn't last a week. But like I said, Russia isn't interested in feeding dependents. It is much better to keep their mineral wealth to themselves thank you very much.

Would I call this Russia's success in politics over last 20-25 years? It depends probably on how you define success but I would say no.

They are doing as well as they can with the crummy hand they have been dealt with. If things were like the US wanted the Caucasus would have split into an Islamic Caliphate and the Russian Federation would have further disintegrated with perhaps Siberia being next.
Russian citizens don't live lives of luxury but they are way, way, better off than they were in the late 90s.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Tell that to European farmers. The Russian counter sanctions were a massive hit. There were shortages in Russia as a result for like 1-2 years but Russian agribusiness supplies all their needs now, and Russia are even exporting their food surplus to the Middle East.
Russia produces more wheat today than the Soviet Union did when it still had Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Those European producers were not as lucky and a lot of them went bankrupt. The pork and poultry suppliers for example.

Russia isn't Saudi Arabia and a lot of the gas is used in their own economy to produce goods and services. If Europe doesn't want cheap gas, then industry will move towards where the cheap energy is. This is already happening to a degree.



That is bullshit. You are reading too much Western propaganda. Russia's Gazprom wants long term stable fixed gas price contracts. This way they can properly fund gas field expansion and pipeline network construction. It is the EU which started a natural gas stock exchange in Amsterdam and bought the US propaganda about cheap US LNG. Guess what, that US LNG previously being sold below cost is now gone, with US both reducing its production and exporting what they do have towards Asian customers more willing to pay. At the same time both the Netherlands and Norway gas production is shrinking. Geez, just like Gazprom had warned for at least five years now, and used as rationale to build Nord Stream 2. The EU made its own mess here. Russia is for the most part not seeing benefit from those stock market gas price increases because they are locked into long term gas supply contracts. It is mostly the LNG speculators who are profiting. Gazprom has limited exposure to the LNG market to begin with. They mostly sell gas via pipe.



Russia is building gas pipelines to China. If Europe doesn't want the gas, there is a much larger market available. Power of Siberia 2 aka Soyuz Vostok will be connected to the same Yamal gas fields which export gas to Europe. They will be able to switch gas from one customer to the other at the flick of a switch.



Russia does not need any more dependents to feed.



Ukraine is now the poorest country in Europe and is at the level of some African countries. There was a massive population exodus from Ukraine to all over Western Europe. Millions of people. If that is winning, well, you have a funny concept of winning.



They might have pretensions but in case of conflict they just lack strategic depth. In case of full scale conventional war they wouldn't last a week. But like I said, Russia isn't interested in feeding dependents. It is much better to keep their mineral wealth to themselves thank you very much.



They are doing as well as they can with the crummy hand they have been dealt with. If things were like the US wanted the Caucasus would have split into an Islamic Caliphate and the Russian Federation would have further disintegrated with perhaps Siberia being next.
Russian citizens don't live lives of luxury but they are way, way, better off than they were in the late 90s.
@gelgoog bro nice rebuttal and may add 1 more even though I'm not Russian, Sanctioning Russia makes her more powerful, self sufficient and therefore in geopolitics a MAJOR PLAYER. A mistake which the West instead of acknowledging are trying to double down, wishing and engineering a return to Yeltsin Russia era. That's why they hate Putin so much...lol
 

bajingan

Senior Member
@gelgoog bro nice rebuttal and may add 1 more even though I'm not Russian, Sanctioning Russia makes her more powerful, self sufficient and therefore in geopolitics a MAJOR PLAYER. A mistake which the West instead of acknowledging are trying to double down, wishing and engineering a return to Yeltsin Russia era. That's why they hate Putin so much...lol
@ansy1968 bro the sanctions and the west mindless hostility against russia, delivered russia firmly into China warm embrace, thus the anglos has effectively lost cold war 2 without even realizing it lmao
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
@ansy1968 bro the sanctions and the west mindless hostility against russia, delivered russia firmly into China warm embrace, thus the anglos has effectively lost cold war 2 without even realizing it lmao
@bajingan bro I'm not a religious person but the stars are aligned for a Rising China with blessings that keep on giving. ;) All of which had been facilitate by the West...lol

My understanding western hubris played a part especially during the Yeltsin era where the west really exploited Russia economically. It was on the edge and if it does fall off, spiritually (orthodox church), culturally and socially it will be like the situation currently prevailing in Ukraine were malaise is prevalent. Putin saved Russia and for that the West had an axed to grind cause their project failed.
 
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Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
@bajingan bro I'm not a religious person but the stars are aligned for a Rising China with blessings that keep on giving. ;) All of which had been facilitate by the West...lol

My understanding western hubris played a part especially during the Yeltsin era where the west really exploited Russia economically. It was on the edge and if it does fall off, spiritually (orthodox church), culturally and socially it will be like the situation currently prevailing in Ukraine were malaise is prevalent. Putin saved Russia and for that the West had an axed to grind cause their project failed.

Bro, the stars are aligned, and the Gods are smiling... :cool:

GUan Yu_99.jpg
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Belarus is an independent country, Russia and Putin have nothing to do with it. It was in retaliation to the imposition of illegal sanctions on Belarus by the EU.

The only shocking behaviour is the fact they are being refused asylum at the Polish border. The refugees are Syrian and Iraqi Kurds. The EU/NATO destroyed their country with two wars. Fixing that is a EU/American responsibility.

If Belarus is an authoritarian, brutal dictatorship as then Poland is legally obliged to offer them asylum. Several Belarussian athletes have fled Belarus and applied for asylum in Poland and other eastern countries, how is this any different?

Nothing will happen to Belarus that hasn't already happened, it will be the fake countries of eastern Europe that will suffer.
You know jack shit about how Asylum works. :D


You can translate it by google translate on Twitter.
---------------------------------

BTW. In my opinion, recent action by Belarus by bringing migrants from the Middle East to the border of Poland is to make trouble for UE.

Firstly, for sanction, UE gave Lukaszenka and Belarus.
Secondly, It may be a pretext for the EU to make further sanctions, and Putin may react by finally incorporating Belarus into Russia in a worst-case scenario. In either way, Russia will have more leverage over Belarus. Maybe Russia can install in Belarus a big military base.

Some videos from the border and not only.




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