Lyle J. Goldstein has been consistently saying Taiwan is undefendable.
Yet the most decisive factor will again be nationalism. Beijing has indicated that it is willing to bear any burden to reunify the nation. That determination sounds quite familiar from the American experiences in fighting both the Vietcong and also the Taliban. And so do the rather flimsy rationales for U.S. intervention, such as “preserving U.S. credibility” or safeguarding the “rules-based order.” Blundering into yet another civil war, but this time against a and thoroughly prepared opponent would, unfortunately, result in consequences far more devastating for the United States than these other disastrous conflicts.
Just a few days ago, I was making the same point to a US member in another thread that Taiwan is legally, historically and internationally recognized part of Chinese territory. He apparently missed the point, saying, essentially, the US doesn't care about that.
My point, well, was not about whether the US cares or not, but rather that because Taiwan is an indispensable part of China, Chinese will do everything and more to defend their sovereign rights on Taiwan, including up to risking MAD.
The quoted paragraph essentially says the same thing. It would be the US "primacy" and "credibility" against Chinese territory and nationalism, that everything boils down to. The US ruling elites appear to believe that if they "raise" the stake so high as to the level of "primacy" or "credibility" then the deterrence effect would be so strong that the other party would back off because of the almighty U.S.A. Or that the entire American nation will throw its weight behind such noble cause, ya' know, like in the World War II, when the totally mobilized American nation single-handedly defeated both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in the two-front war. Or that as soon as a determined US brings out its nuclear card anywhere and everywhere it deems to be supreme to its national interest, the opposing side would be checkmated. In other words, it's all about the US.
Talk about being degranged and delusional.