Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
Damn that guy is talented
Dont forget that the indians are not even 1/100 as compentent as the Germans which the indians worship !!
bajingan
Senior Member
If she is crazy enough to unilaterality declared independence, can't PLARF just decap strike her using conventional DF-21s along with majority of dpp members? And China will be totally justified in doing so as its red lines has been known for decades
Not sure why this is an issue.
Overbom is just speaking the truth.
1) The foreign ministry guy said in his official capacity for the CCP that that was definitely not a hypersonic missile test. China was definitely not increasing the military stakes because that test never happened. The real problem here is the typical American warmongering rhetoric. Also, we should clarify that China has not developed any newer extra-scaled supercomputer. Just a few students pulling a prank with their iMac in a room somewhere.
2) China's involvement in Myanmar. The rebel troops were paid their wages in RMB. All cell phone coverage from the border regions come from China. Let's not talk about where those ethnic Chinese holdouts in Burma get their weapons.
3) China did not exactly destroy some small country, American style, but it did get into hand to hand combat with one of the neighbours not too long ago.
This seems no more than a barking dog show.
Just my opinion, and that is if mainland China really wanted to make a military move against Taiwan, it will be a long drawn out crisis.
A long crisis will essentially cripple the economy on the island. Also, a long crisis will truly test American will to fight.
For example, if there is a blockade, and then mainland China and Taiwan decides to lower tensions to discuss things, then the blockade will be halted. Of course, that could be reapplied at any time.
The CCP will not try to invade Taiwan before the Americans come to the rescue. The CCP will take on the Americans head on, sooner or later.
To me, it makes no sense to have a short crisis. A long crisis works better for the PRC. A long crisis does not work for DPP. That is how it should be played.
The length of the crisis is irrelevant, and no crisis works to DPP's advantage. Their entire claim to power lies in the lie that they can provide security for Taiwan. The moment this security is gone they are responsible and there is a sufficient number of people who will want to hold them responsible.
There is no "China vs Taiwan" conflict. Taiwan might have been a problem in the past but it is not anymore. The US is the problem and has been the problem since before "Taiwan" became an issue. "Taiwan conflict" is just a misrepresentation of the general China vs US conflict by focusing on a single - albeit natural and important - flashpoint.
Furthermore the misrepresentation of US-China conflict over Taiwan comes as a result of misunderstanding of the real nature of US-China conflict in general. The conflict between US and China is an economic conflict, not a political one. The economic conflict arises exlusively from the the unnatural and unsustainable state and position of the US economy which operates as a global rent-seeker. The US' primary export good is the US dollar which is sold globally with the threat of force backing the sale. Officially the arrangement operates as follows: the US provides security - typically against a third party - and the "protected" countries in turn buy dollars. Unofficially the US uses direct threat - typically in an an indirect attack against the country's economy and destabilization of its security - to facilitate USD sales. This is in particular true of the so called "allies" - most importantly Germany and Japan in the 80s and 90s.
Though it might seem as a "security arrangement with a subscription fee payable in USD" in reality it is the exact opposite - and arguably always has been for any money producer throughout history. The military establishment rarely seeks to expand its power as numerous examples of military dictatorships demonstrate. Military dictatorships tend to expand only as means of reinforcing their internal power structure. Consistently throughout history the primary driving force for war and imperialistic expansion are the banks. Not the industry - as the industry has ways to compete for foreign markets through innovation or currency devaluation. The banks however have only one product - money - and its value is entirely dependent on its unit of account and its purchasing power. What is also important it is the banks and fiat currencies that operate exactly on the principle of economic exploitation. Marx was wrong about this being a general principle of "capitalist" mode of production and the 20th century provided evidence for that. However when applied to the description of for profit production of money it necessarily works along the principles of exploitation since the nature of the good/product (money) makes it extremely inflexible in terms of deriving profits. They can only be achieved through devaluation of purchasing power - which leads the users to abandon currency - or through increased demand. Money is literally a "unit of account". There is no room for optimization. You either take it as it is or leave it as it is.
The only way to enhance money as a product is to package it with another basket of goods. Germany and the EU package the Euro with the access to highly valuable markets or export goods. The US used to do so early in the history of the global dollar system (early after WW2) when the US had 40% of world's industrial production, 60% o the world's oil, a majority of the world's food production and the world's most potent military. However this position was ruined by predatory behavior of American ruling class and currently the US offers very little in terms of voluntary transaction. Even the most dynamic industry - IT - operates on the basis of the theft of value (data) rather than the provision of it.
The problem arises from the mutually supporting structures of US global financial cartel and its military machine. The financial cartel finances the military machine and the military machine enables the financial cartel. One can't exist without each other and the weakening of each will result in the necessary weakening of the other.
Here's a short run-down of US vulnerability.
In nominal terms the US economy currently constitutes approximately 24,5% of world's GDP. In comparison the Euro area constitutes approximately 15% of the world's GDP. China in nominal terms, measured at the current artificially lowered exchange rate, has approximately 17,5% of world's GDP.
In PPP terms the US economy is actually slightly smaller (due to the overvaluation of the USD), while Eurozone is slightly larger, and China is substantially larger.
Now compare it to the share of global currency reserves - the USD constitutes 59% of global reserves, the EUR constitutes 21% of reserves and the RMB constitutes 2% of reserves having been listed only since 2016.
This is crucial to understand American vulnerability.
If Euro takes a hit on international markets it retains its natural ability to resist since its loss of value will improve the attractiveness of Eurozone exports which are the main source of demand for Euro. Even if Euro loses some of its demand it can be absorbed internally by the Eurozone. In fact, this has been precisely the case since the Eurozone crisis which started a few years after 2008. The vulnerability of the Euro is political (hence America's attempts to destabilize the EU) and not economic. Furthermore if the Eurozone was dissolved it would lead to the creation of a stronger currency - since Euro is the German Mark weighed down by various weak currencies like the Franc, Lira, Peso etc - that could take comparatively greater share of world reserves just like it was the case in the 80s.
If Renminbi takes a hit on international markets it has almost no consequence at this point.
If the US takes a hit on international markets then this hit will be translated through the magnitude of the global dollar reserves which are circa 140% greater than America's share of the global economy at present moment. The dollar reserves are helping to increase the nominal size of the US economy so any loss of demand will necessarily lead to smaller economy i.e. a death spiral since the US has largely deindustrialized and its industry is incapable of supporting its currency.
Therefore the dollar depends on the US military power and its ability to continue enabling forcible sales of USD. The moment American "security" no longer is has value it results in loss of demand for USD.
How does American "security" loses value? It has to be credibly challenged and made impotent. This applies anywhere on the globe so if US is engaged in a protracted large conflict with China it means it can't provide "security" anywhere else.
Remember that the UK won the WW2 and still lost the empire simply because they were not able to match supply of Sterling with the demand for it since they no longer provided global security for trade.
This means two things:
Any conflict over Taiwan is advantageous to China in the long term regardless of the outcome in the short term.
Any conflict over Taiwan is disadvantageous to America in the long term regardless of the outcome in the short term.
And this means that the conflict over Taiwan is not a real conflict in its own right, but a tool for something greater. It is a tool for America's attempt to physical separate its rent-generating properties from the globalized world which no longer allows them to retain their advantage in perpetuity. America established a global economy under its hegemony because it was the global American empire with USD as its currency. Now that the position of USD and the hegemon is vulnerable it wants to dissolve the empire and establish a new one, which will be then followed by inflationary escape from external debt (Weimar solution) and establishing of a "new dollar" backed by American military power.
In other words the US wants to return to the days of the cold war where "1st world is American sphere of influence" , "2nd world is China sphere of influence" and "3rd world" is the contested area.
Taiwan does not matter. The US wants to change the rules of capital movement through state action so that the new rules continue to benefit its ruling class.
This is why they instigate tensions in Europe with Russia and push their European vassals to recognize Taiwan. It is all about decoupling the Eurozone from Russia and China and reinstating American military power as solution to "Russian threat" and "Chinese threat" as the foundation of its money production and rent-seeking.
And this explains also the psyop relating to Hongkong, Xinjiang and attacks at Chinese investments and commercial activities. It is not about attacking China since the US knows it is impossible. It is about tearing the current global economy apart to protect its position.
American ruling class is attempting to secede from the international system to protect its position much in the same way as the ruling class of the American South seceded from the Union it created to protect its position.
Similarly the ruling class of United Kingdom seceded from the EU to protect its money-laundering and tax-evading industry.
It is short-term self-serving behavior that characterizes a parasite. And that's exactly what those Anglo-American "elites" are - they are parasites of the global economic system. And whatever anyone thinks about the behavior of the Chinese, or Russian or European establishment they have nowhere near the power and influence and position that the Anglo-American ruling class has.
That imbalance is the cause of the global instability.
Wow!! What a fascinating read. Your writing captures the readers attention that makes one think and question the established positions for consideration or modifications. Thank you.