IMO it's a bad deal if:
- There is a way for Ukraine to rearm. Reddest of all flags
- Sanctions not fully lifted (quickly get back frozen reserves and offload them)
- Any European/NATO peacekeepers
- Any pathway to NATO, EU or whatever similar for Ukraine
- Russia not getting all "officially" annexed regions
Tbh it doesn't make sense for Putin to agree to anything now. However that also depends on domestic affairs (economic situation). Should stall for a bit and meanwhile keep pushing on the battlefield and maybe he can "officially" annex another region
Half of the things you listed were already offered by the US before negotiations even officially began, without anyone even asking. That just shows how low their bottom line is on this issue.
Later, they backtracked with some ridiculous bravado from JD Vance, realizing they had messed up and scrambling to salvage the situation.
I think the key factor here is that Russia's economy grew by an average of around 4% over the last two years, but now they're predicting 1-2% growth for the next few years. That might be why they'd prefer to negotiate.
It seems like the initial economic boost from the war has dried up, but 1-2% growth is pretty much their standard post-2014 rate anyway. It's not something they can't handle, especially when Europe is looking at sub-1% growth in comparison.
If sanctions were lifted now, they could probably push back up to 4%, but if not, it’s not the end of the world, they still have a stable economy.
This is also a question of human lives. Putin might be thinking: why drag this war out for years, winning bit by bit, when the US is already on the verge of collapse? Why not just take Ukraine fully when the time is right in the next few years after the US breaks and make 'peace' until then?
So overall, on top of everything you mentioned, I think they'll at least demand the orange parts too. Otherwise, it might not even seem acceptable to their own population, so no deal (they don't think rationally, and if this tanks Putin's support rate, then no deal is most optimal).
As for the US, why they are in a worse situation than Russia in this negotiation, as we can see, not only are they not getting any returns on the battlefield in Ukraine (small losses), but they have much more pressing issues to deal with and re-route those resources toward. You can imagine how bad things must be if even they are willing to admit defeat so openly, without their usual delusions. They’re grappling with an accelerating internal collapse, layer upon layer of societal decay, political turmoil, astronomical debt, and, of course, preparations for a war against China, all the while slashing taxes for the rich even further, ramping up support for Israel in the Middle East pandering to Trump’s donors. They're weaker.