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coolgod

coolgod

Brigadier
Registered Member
coolgod said:
My bold prediction: Trump and Putin will attend this year's 80th anniversary of the Chinese victory over Japan Parade on Sept 3rd.

Logic: Trump and Xi have to meet again soon, Trump needs to meet with Putin too, what better political excuse then to celebrate over old comradery. Xi wants to demonstrate China's military power and Trump loves military parades, he will use this parade as a justification for a military parade for America's 250th anniversary in 2026. Putin needs a neutral third country to meet with Trump, what better place than China.

All the hints dropped about China playing an integral role in ending the Ukraine war is obvious, remember Orban's trips? China has also been dropping hints about China-US past cooperation regarding WWII. This American Evan Keil has been getting high profile events with China, he published a video of an old album showing Nanjing Massacre and he got rewarded with a priceless China State pottery. He then toured China and visited all the memorials related to WWII. Now he's invited to China's New Year Gala.

Maybe this is where we will see H-20's first flight :)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1878915521619620007

For reference: this was the 70th anniversary of the Chinese victory over Japan Parade.

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1868251660012994888
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1891134723100983652
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A Chinese speaking French man (Marcus Detrez) arrived in Beijing recently to donate 622 photos showing Japanese warcrimes that were taken by his grandfather in Shanghai.

Sounds like Macron want to join the party and attend the 80th anniversary of the Chinese victory over Japan Parade too:)
 
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S

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
Overbom said:
IMO it's a bad deal if:
  • There is a way for Ukraine to rearm. Reddest of all flags
  • Sanctions not fully lifted (quickly get back frozen reserves and offload them)
  • Any European/NATO peacekeepers
  • Any pathway to NATO, EU or whatever similar for Ukraine
  • Russia not getting all "officially" annexed regions

Tbh it doesn't make sense for Putin to agree to anything now. However that also depends on domestic affairs (economic situation). Should stall for a bit and meanwhile keep pushing on the battlefield and maybe he can "officially" annex another region
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Half of the things you listed were already offered by the US before negotiations even officially began, without anyone even asking. That just shows how low their bottom line is on this issue.

Later, they backtracked with some ridiculous bravado from JD Vance, realizing they had messed up and scrambling to salvage the situation.

I think the key factor here is that Russia's economy grew by an average of around 4% over the last two years, but now they're predicting 1-2% growth for the next few years. That might be why they'd prefer to negotiate.

It seems like the initial economic boost from the war has dried up, but 1-2% growth is pretty much their standard post-2014 rate anyway. It's not something they can't handle, especially when Europe is looking at sub-1% growth in comparison.

If sanctions were lifted now, they could probably push back up to 4%, but if not, it’s not the end of the world, they still have a stable economy.

This is also a question of human lives. Putin might be thinking: why drag this war out for years, winning bit by bit, when the US is already on the verge of collapse? Why not just take Ukraine fully when the time is right in the next few years after the US breaks and make 'peace' until then?

So overall, on top of everything you mentioned, I think they'll at least demand the orange parts too. Otherwise, it might not even seem acceptable to their own population, so no deal (they don't think rationally, and if this tanks Putin's support rate, then no deal is most optimal).




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As for the US, why they are in a worse situation than Russia in this negotiation, as we can see, not only are they not getting any returns on the battlefield in Ukraine (small losses), but they have much more pressing issues to deal with and re-route those resources toward. You can imagine how bad things must be if even they are willing to admit defeat so openly, without their usual delusions. They’re grappling with an accelerating internal collapse, layer upon layer of societal decay, political turmoil, astronomical debt, and, of course, preparations for a war against China, all the while slashing taxes for the rich even further, ramping up support for Israel in the Middle East pandering to Trump’s donors. They're weaker.
 
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zyklon

zyklon

Senior Member
Registered Member
pmc said:
This one. the map was from Gulf Monarchies perspective.
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I don't think anyone should be surprised that Trump has a preference for immigrants from economically developed Western nations.

In all fairness, he probably isn't wrong to assume that such immigrants tend to assimilate more easily, and stand to contribute more to the US economy on average.

However, I'm not sure what a map depicting what appears to be Turkish Airlines destinations has to do with Trump's views on immigration or the perspectives of GCC sheikhdoms?
 
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GulfLander

Brigadier
Registered Member
"Yonhap News Agency: Foreign Ministers of the ROK, the U.S. and Japan held talks on February 15 in Munich, Germany. The three countries said for the first time in their joint statement that they support “Taiwan’s meaningful participation in appropriate international organizations,” strongly oppose “any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the waters of the Indo-Pacific, including the South China Sea,” and emphasize “the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” What’s China’s position on that? 

Guo Jiakun: We firmly oppose relevant countries’ attempts to put together small circles to interfere in China’s internal affairs, attack and smear China, and stoke confrontation and antagonism. We’ve lodged serious protests with relevant countries.

Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The Taiwan question is purely an internal affair of China, which brooks no external interference. The key to upholding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait lies in abiding by the one-China principle, and firmly opposing “Taiwan independence” separatism. The Taiwan region’s participation in the activities of international organizations must and can only be handled in line with the one-China principle.

Let me stress that the Asia-Pacific is a stellar example of peace and development, not a chessboard for geopolitical contests. We call on relevant parties to earnestly respect regional countries’ effort for peace and stability, abandon the Cold War mentality, stop creating bloc confrontation and stop fueling tensions in the region. China will firmly safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, and meanwhile, stays committed to properly handling differences through dialogue and consultation with countries concerned. "


Seems some things dont change even w Trump2.0.
 
P

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
zyklon said:
I don't think anyone should be surprised that Trump has a preference for immigrants from economically developed Western nations.

In all fairness, he probably isn't wrong to assume that such immigrants tend to assimilate more easily, and stand to contribute more to the US economy on average.

However, I'm not sure what a map depicting what appears to be Turkish Airlines destinations has to do with Trump's views on immigration or the perspectives of GCC sheikhdoms?
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Reread JD Vance speach. I dont need to put in Arabic what that threat from "with in" actually means
who are the biggest supporters of Trump?. If Trump prefer migrants from specific countries than he can create crises for them to make them flee.
 
G

GulfLander

Brigadier
Registered Member
"AFP: Authorities in South Korea said today that Chinese AI app DeepSeek will not be available to download in the country until the review of its personal data collection practices is carried out. Does the Foreign Ministry have a comment on this? 

Guo Jiakun: I’d refer you to competent authorities for anything specific. Let me stress that the Chinese government, as always, asks our companies to strictly abide by local laws and regulations in doing business overseas. We also hope that relevant countries can refrain from broadening the concept of national security on trade and tech issues and politicizing them."
(Anyway, is there new news abt what happened to their leader?

Also how eill SK be affected by investigation vs Google in CN?)
 
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