Even if ASI is possible anytime soon it would never have been the US. ASI is by definition self-creating, which means by definition it's a product of Deepseek type intelligence and not brute force. America's lack of intellgence and need to brute force definitionally already precluded them from ASIThis Deepseek thing is bigger than DeepSeek. US can try and ban DeepSeek but the model weights are already out in the wild under free MIT license plus Deepseek published the papers that allow anyone to use the recipe to duplicate /replicate and get close to SOTA with minimal effort... which huggingface and many others are already doing... so US would have to ban ALL open source, or move the goalpost to controlling GPU instead, which it already did with the AI Diffusion Export Controls in the last days of Biden.
Its about AI diffusion and the proliferation of local and open source /open weight AI winning against closed source gated (StarGate) AI where everyone in the world has to pay for StarLink and a $200/$2000 perptual license fee to US via External Revenue Tax....
As long as open source can keep bridging the gap (less than 6 months apart) from SOTA closed source, then US plan for its AI as the new hegemony wont be viable....
Until a few weeks ago I was wondering why China hasnt used its main rugpull yet, now I know why. It doesnt need to play that card yet
Its not if but when China catches up in EUV and GPU/AI chip production. As DeepSeek.proven already, Nvidia doesnt have moat because Cuda doesnt have moat and ASML is rapidly losing its own moat....
Getting to ASI first was Americas final hail mary to turn the tide, arrest its declining hegemony and wrestle away China's impeding global supremacy.... but it has to get to ASI fast enough and maintain a lead time gap wide enough....
but Now Im not even sure it will be the US that gets to ASI first, nevermind whether or not it maintains a sufficent lead while doing so....
R1 is not AGI/ASI...I am not lacking confidence in the home team (except in soft power). I just hate sharing with people that want to harm my tribe. I think it's insane. I always think about the global tragedy of Caucasians copying Chinese technology especially gun powder and then raping the entire planet. I never want that to repeat again. I already gave the example of an upgraded India with Chinese robots.
You look at Caucasians. How did they stay so strong for so long? They held onto their advantages. That's the smart thing to do.
You are looking at the positives of democratized AI. Imagine the open sourced Chinese tech leads to a gunpowder 2.0 situation, where a Chinese technology is once again weaponized by Caucasians to enslave everyone.
re: quote
There's a big difference between having a moat for self protection and prosperity vs plundering the world like Caucasians.
If we don't share nuclear technology then why share AGI, which is the ultimate weapon. Deepseek is not AGI, but that's their goal.
R1 is not AGI/ASI...
Deepseek releasing R1 as open weights precisely helps China's odds of getting to ASI first, before the Americans.
If this doesnt make sense to you, I suggest you use R1 to help you figure out why.
Same here I’m going to hit my 20th anniversary this year but I’m still a junior.