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Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
A wise man once said, allow nothing get in the way of a great story; and Deep Seek is a great story. But end of the day, we need to sit down and talk about facts.

Deep Seek is not a super hero team of 200 IQ geniuses. They didn't "do the impossible." The reason they did what Big Tech. did with a fraction of the costs is because China does everything the US does at a fraction of the costs. It's the same reason BYD can sell an EV brand new for $11,500, but a "domestically built EV" cost $50,000+ in the US. It's why DJI can sell a drone for $500, but Skydio sells it at $2,000. It's why a medical procedure in China cost $500, but the same medical procedure in the US costs $5000.

It's the currency, stupid. Chinese labor, energy, infrastructure, food, medicine, everything seems absurdly cheap when converted to dollars. And that's what Deep Seek's costs were evaluated in - dollars. Nobody ever talks about the amount of energy they used to train the model and how that compares to the energy spent by other AI companies. No, we always talk about dollars, dollars, dollars - and that's the same story across every industry - China does it cheap. AI is just the latest to be hit by it.

Yes, there's a bit more to it than that. Institutional bloat - which doesn't just affect US Big Tech., but also Chinese Big Tech. companies like Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, etc. - that also has tremendous costs. It's why Byte Dance is investing billions of dollars into the effort, while Deep Seek with its relatively small team with minimal middle management, could get away with a lot less. Fact is, if you have thirty Directors, Senior Directors, and Vice Presidents making millions of dollars a year each, it's going to cost you billions on compensation alone especially with all the usual corporate alignment, meetings, delays, etc.

But that's not just an US problem. That's a big corporation problem. It's why nobody in Chinese Big Tech. is claiming it's cheap. Because it isn't, when your corporation becomes that large.

Deep Seek's advantage is the advantage enjoyed by every Chinese company in competition vs. the US - cost. Their disadvantage will also be the same - it'll be hard for Deep Seek to keep hold of its talent in the coming days, as recruiters start reaching out to poach them for ten times the salary. But maybe that's okay. As long as China maintains a talent advantage vs. the US, and there's no shortage of young Chinese AI graduates hungry for fame and fortune, companies like Deep Seek can continue to surprise the world about Chinese costs in dollars.

Stop coping, even if it gets factored in purchased parity, it would still be hundreds of times cheaper to develop.

This is precisely because of brain power/innovation advantage. You don't have to do complicated mental gymnastics here.

Also, the institutional bloat is a feature of US big tech, not universal and not of China's big tech, as China broke the bloat there (see Alibaba, Tencent).

Once again, you have a certain reasoning ability, but you are too brainwashed by the US 'superiority propaganda' to accurately guess much of reality now.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
A by product of Xi crackdown on monopolistic tech company, without it, Deep Seek and other startup had No chance to shine or even survive.
Yes, and here we do have an American structural disadvantage, where, burned by previous start up bubbles, investors in the US are pouring their money into American Big Tech., sending their stock prices to the moon and making it impossible for start ups to compete for top talent.

Why work for a start up that has maybe a 5% chance of making you millions, when you could get millions just by doing code monkey work in Big Tech.? That's the sentiment you see across places like Reddit, Blind, etc. - and combined with the institutional bloat, waste, and slow paced, politics driven working style at large corporations, it does mean American industries are struggling to keep up with fast moving Chinese companies in emerging industries.

Again, it's not just an American problem. There are dinosaur companies in China, too, like Baidu and ZTE, which mostly free ride off of regulatory capture and not because they are actually world class. The critical aspect is, the Chinese government recognized this fact and put a stop to the bloat of private monopolies. It didn't allow Ant, Tencent, etc. to just create a financial empire and live off of rent. Granted, the Chinese government also didn't go far enough - it didn't solve the problem of state owned dinosaurs and bureaucratic bloat, which has resulted in certain consequences like newer generations of Chinese wanting to become public officials instead of scientists. But that's a problem for a future generation.

Stop coping, even if it gets factored in purchased parity, it would still be hundreds of times cheaper to develop.

This is precisely because of brain power/innovation advantage. You don't have to do complicated mental gymnastics here.

Also, the institutional bloat is a feature of US big tech, not universal and not of China's big tech, as China broke the bloat there (see Alibaba, Tencent).

Once again, you have a certain reasoning ability, but you are too brainwashed by the US 'superiority propaganda' to accurately guess much of real life.
$5.6 million is just what it cost to train the final model. It did not capture any of the auxiliary costs from Deep Seek - like employee salaries, infrastructure costs (from building the data centers), R&D costs, data collection costs, etc.

Deep Seek was transparent about this in their paper but the media took the $5.6 million and ran with it for apples-to-oranges comparisons vs. Facebook's executive compensation, which is of course ridiculous because Deep Seek never counted executive compensation in their $5.6 million. That's why it's a great story, but not the actual multiplier.
 
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coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
Denmark needs some DF-17s

View attachment 144303
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This is utterly unacceptable, China cannot just let Russia and the US rape Europe for free. China needs to get the US and Russia to sit down together over a cup of tea in Beijing. The three sides needs to work out a mutually beneficial deal, something like Russia gets Eastern Ukraine, US gets Greenland and China gets back all the loot the European MFs stole previously including the illegal war reparations (precious metal) with interest.

Meanwhile in Europe

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German opposition leader Merz says Ukraine must win and regain all its territory​

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the German opposition and the CDU/CSU (Union) parliamentary group, as well as a candidate for the next chancellor of Germany, has announced that ending Russia’s war against Ukraine would be a key strategic priority if he becomes chancellor.

Source:
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, citing Merz at an event in Berlin on Thursday, 23 January, as reported by European Pravda
Details: The report says Merz pledged continued support for Ukraine, emphasising that ending Russia's aggressive war would be a top priority for his government.

He stressed that Ukraine must "win the war".
Quote: "Victory means restoring territorial integrity with a democratically legitimate government exercising full sovereignty."

Merz also underlined that Ukraine should have the freedom to choose its own political and military alliances.

The chancellor candidate avoided directly addressing the ongoing debate over a proposed €3 billion aid package to fund additional arms supplies.

Like current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Merz maintained that Germany must not become an active party in the war.
Background:
  • The CDU/CSU has incorporated support for Ukraine and a commitment to strengthening sanctions against Russia into its election platform.
  • In a
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    with Merz in December, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed Ukraine's expectation for Germany to assist in "enhancing its long-range capabilities".
  • On 21 January, Merz and Zelenskyy
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    advancing a just peace for Ukraine, addressing global challenges, and assessing the situation on the front lines.

I don't understand why there is still a newspaper named Ukrainska Pravda
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 'Ukrainian truth' today, have they never read the original Pravda back in the USSR days?
 
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Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
newer generations of Chinese wanting to become public officials instead of scientists. But that's a problem for a future generation.

And only the most capable, out of them, get to be public officials, so what? This is perfectly normal for much of China's history and the most superior system there is in existence found so far. Or do you want to be led by 115 IQ midwits, with 20% approval ratings like they are currently in the EU and the US leading to the collapse of epic proportions? We are living in a civilization, not some pirate-like barbaric individualistic mess the West thinks states should be. The number 1 of current human prosperity is right governance, and then 10 places empty, and only then other important stuff come. Also, China will soon have STEM graduates comparable to the level of the RoW combined. I think they can manage both.

state owned dinosaurs

You don't get it. State-owned monopolies in China are mostly present in legacy industries that are very prone to rent-seeking, like utilities, etc, so they could be easier managed and so they could actually prevent private rent-seeking easily, not cause it like private monopolies/oligopolies in the same industries in the US. Private vs public ownership has different objectives. Why would any state firm want to rent seek/parasitize lol?
 
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Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is perfectly normal for much of China's history and the most superior system there is in existence found so far. Or do you want to be led by 115 IQ midwits, with 20% approval ratings like they are currently in the EU and the US leading to the collapse of epic proportions? We are living in a civilization, not some pirate-like barbaric individualistic mess the West thinks states should be. The number 1 of current human prosperity is right governance, and then 10 places empty, and only then other important stuff come. Also, China has STEM graduates comparable to the level of the rest of the world combined. I think they can manage both lol.
You're assuming these people are going into public service to actually "serve," as opposed to leech off of public welfare.

I personally know of people in China, who basically got the job from their dads pulling connections, and who spend most of their time playing / vacationing / having fun, and just do the minimum to collect a government pay check. The bureaucracy is bloated enough that they essentially slip through the cracks, and it's considered a much better, less stressful way to just "coast." It's quite similar to the government bloat the US has experienced, unfortunately.

You don't get it. State-owned monopolies in China are mostly present in legacy industries that are very prone to rent-seeking, like utilities, etc, so they could be easier managed and to actually prevent private rent-seeking easily, not to cause it like private monopolies in the same industries in the US. Private vs public ownership has different objectives. Why would any state firm want to rent seek lol?
See above. The government sector in China has gotten vastly more bloated in recent years, and it's come to be seen as a place to coast - as long as you can get in via connections, exams, etc. China needs more scientists and engineers, not more public officials.
 

Fatty

Junior Member
Registered Member
Deep Seek was transparent about this in their paper but the media took the $5.6 million and ran with it for apples-to-oranges comparisons vs. Facebook's executive compensation, which is of course ridiculous because Deep Seek never counted executive compensation in their $5.6 million. That's why it's a great story, but not the actual multiplier.
Llama 3.1 took around 40m GPU hours aka 120-160m to do the training run. So the story is actually worse for Facebook if you dig deeper lol
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
You're assuming these people are going into public service to actually "serve," as opposed to leech off of public welfare.

I personally know of people in China, who basically got the job from their dads pulling connections, and who spend most of their time playing / vacationing / having fun, and just do the minimum to collect a government pay check. The bureaucracy is bloated enough that they essentially slip through the cracks, and it's considered a much better, less stressful way to just "coast." It's quite similar to the government bloat the US has experienced, unfortunately.


See above. The government sector in China has gotten vastly more bloated in recent years, and it's come to be seen as a place to coast - as long as you can get in via connections, exams, etc. China needs more scientists and engineers, not more public officials.

Agree, that China doesn't need to have more officials, but the officials that it does need - must be the brightest people in that country.

(Or they would end like failed states in the Global South to currently failing states in the Collective West with clown leaders and 20% support rates).

And how are you going to get them if you don't entice them somehow? So, only the most capable get in, others don't get in, I don't see a problem.

You do understand that there is a 1.5% acceptance rate on average for civil service, in every given year in China, so how will there not be enough engineers/scientists?

Or else China wouldn't have 10 times more STEM graduates than the US and comparable to RoW combined (when the tertiary GER fully matures).

What it doesn't need more of are bullshit wordcel disciplines like the law in the US, or even worse, finance, which would be truly catastrophic I guess.

Also, regarding your second point, the state is a larger participant in the US/EU economies than in China, so you should focus on them first:


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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
$5.6 million is just what it cost to train the final model. It did not capture any of the auxiliary costs from Deep Seek - like employee salaries, infrastructure costs (from building the data centers), R&D costs, data collection costs, etc.

Deep Seek was transparent about this in their paper but the media took the $5.6 million and ran with it for apples-to-oranges comparisons vs. Facebook's executive compensation, which is of course ridiculous because Deep Seek never counted executive compensation in their $5.6 million. That's why it's a great story, but not the actual multiplier.
How much OpenAI and other American companies paid to train their models? Everyone paid the same price for the Nvidia cards, actually Chinese have to pay more to smuggle them in.

The buzz on DeepSeek is how much more efficient it is. You can run the entire model on a bunch of Mac Minis at home, no need for giant data centres. Nothing to do with the employee salaries and other costs.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Im actually starting to worry about DeepSeek. Its possible Americans will send someone to murder its founder.

DeepSeek has shown a lot of money going into tech is basically a huge scam. This might have a huge impact on capital markets.

View attachment 144334
Deepseek team already linked up with the Chinese government, it's likely the team is now de facto owned by the MSS/PLA through and through, if they weren't already in the first place.

He is not some random silicon valley techbro under US jurisdiction (like that one that tried to sue Altman), hence there's nothing US can do.
 
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