Miscellaneous News

quim said:

I'm not "very pro western." In fact, in real pro-western forums I am persecuted as a communist. lol.

I'm just a realist. Russia's economy is doing well, but this new configuration has its limits. I just reported the concerns expressed by the President of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiulina, about the overheating of the economy that fuels inflation due to personnel shortages, because the armaments industries are pulling employees from civilian companies, generating labor shortages.

If this situation goes on too long, it will lead to very high interest rates for longer and delays in the import substitution and technological independence program.

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I post stuff regarding Russia economy in this forum. Dont rely on official statements. you need to research things before continuously reply on a topic. there could be one set of statistics that real and another set released to shape public opinion. Armaments industries does not take much and Russia basically has unlimited money for Robotics. her statements have other meaning.

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Ukraine's top general to Le Monde: 'The number of Russian troops is constantly increasing'

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quim said:

Defeating Ukraine does not mean annexing the entire territory at once.

Just neutralize the military threat and hostile government and put a friendly regime in place to filter the population, so, in the future, Russia will be able to annex the territory if it is beneficial. Nothing very different from what Israel is doing with Syria, Palestine and Lebanon currently.

However, at the current rate the war is only heading towards a stalemate negotiated by Trump next year, which could cause a lot of headaches in the future with NATO rearming Ukraine in the next term of democrats in the white house.

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defeating Ukraine means not just Ukraine but contributing to New Europe. you need experience to understand that part without me referring to Arabic. Putin essentially saying that if this communist revolution not happened the country will have 500m population. now guess what was dominant religion at that time that could not prevent it.

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Putin stated at the "Knowledge" marathon that the population of the Russian Federation could reach 500 million people​

"We need to carefully analyze what was the trigger, what was the trigger for these dramatic events. If they had not happened, we would have a different country," he said. The first time was after the 1917 revolution, the second time was as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

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quim said:

Just neutralize the military threat and hostile government and put a friendly regime in place to filter the population, so, in the future, Russia will be able to annex the territory if it is beneficial.

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Russia is very bad at diplomacy and intelligence operations - as we've seen in Syria recently. First they got played at Astana and later they failed to see the offensive coming. While also failing to understand just how badly in shape Assad's army was. Russia also got played during the Minsk accords.

Moreover, let's not forget that Russia pumped 100-200 billion USD into the Ukraine in the form of massively subsidised gas and what thanks did they get for it? Maidan. There's very little reason to think Russia would be able to install a friendly regime and keep it that way even if they get a favorable outcome at the end of the war.

Honestly, the only realistic option for Russia would be to neuter Ukraine as to make it impossible to invest in and essentially meaningless to invite into NATO or the EU. And then just wait for years as it slowly implodes on itself and just pick up the scraps.

I'm not convinced anyone would even want a rump Ukraine located in the western part of the country with Lviv as its capital. That's ground zero for crazed Ukrainian nationalism. Certainly the Poles would never let such a "Banderastan" into the EU and I doubt the Russians would want to rule over such rabble.

Biscuits said:

US tried that with Vietnam and the result was losing a ton of planes then being unable to sustain the war.

Russia actually wants a lot of Ukrainians, just not anyone who doesn't resist Maidan, they're removing those but letting the remainder stay. Notice how Zelensky approval (even by western admission, which I'll use since there's no impartial sources with access) now approach single digits. That's mostly not because of changing minds but because people are just gone, fled or killed.

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How much of that is true, considering that Zelensky was elected on the basis of making peace with the East and that the mayority of the Ukranian population was pro-Russian specially in the east?. Maidan was a coup by Western Ukranians.

That said, if the goal was to displace Ukrainians, then Russia wouln't have handicapped itself by avoiding to hit infrastructure way after the war was well underway.

Biscuits said:

The numbers sit at like 40k-60k, they would have taken that town already if they had killed half of the inhabitants lmao

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Nevermind, I just had mixed up the number of casualties with the numbers of displaced people

Pentagon yearly report on China is out

mossen said:

Russia is very bad at diplomacy and intelligence operations - as we've seen in Syria recently. First they got played at Astana and later they failed to see the offensive coming. While also failing to understand just how badly in shape Assad's army was. Russia also got played during the Minsk accords.

Moreover, let's not forget that Russia pumped 100-200 billion USD into the Ukraine in the form of massively subsidised gas and what thanks did they get for it? Maidan. There's very little reason to think Russia would be able to install a friendly regime and keep it that way even if they get a favorable outcome at the end of the war.

Honestly, the only realistic option for Russia would be to neuter Ukraine as to make it impossible to invest in and essentially meaningless to invite into NATO or the EU. And then just wait for years as it slowly implodes on itself and just pick up the scraps.

I'm not convinced anyone would even want a rump Ukraine located in the western part of the country with Lviv as its capital. That's ground zero for crazed Ukrainian nationalism. Certainly the Poles would never let such a "Banderastan" into the EU and I doubt the Russians would want to rule over such rabble.

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It's kinda funny when you think about it. The great USSR was so dominant at chess. Yet if you look what the empire, USSR and modern Russia do most of the time, they just use brute force instead of thinking carefully for better solutions. I think some of this stems from their culture of being Manly guys in the cold weather who won't back down no matter what. And this gets them in trouble quite a lot.

China can appear weak and feeble but if thats what it wants you to believe then you're already getting played. It looks more at the root cause and when it wants a problem solved, it will make sure it's solved properly for a long time. China can get its hands dirty easily but when it does, it makes sure it doesn't happen again.That's why it's such a headache for the west, coz they can't figure it out.

I reiterate the example of how Russia handled Kazakhstan and how China handled HK when there were colour revolution. Russia used brute force to solve the problem but ultimately the conditions that caused it are not addressed and will probably repeat. China waited for HK to get exhausted and in the meantime looked at every hole to plug so further foreign support could not be provided. It took longer but the result will be better than asking for another repeat.

Some things take longer to resolve. But it's better if the solution remains in place longer then a short term solution.

sheogorath said:

How much of that is true, considering that Zelensky was elected on the basis of making peace with the East and that the mayority of the Ukranian population was pro-Russian specially in the east?. Maidan was a coup by Western Ukranians.

That said, if the goal was to displace Ukrainians, then Russia wouln't have handicapped itself by avoiding to hit infrastructure way after the war was well underway.

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Their idea goes something like this: if you're pro Russian, you'll either outright join Russia or inform on Ukrainian forces/refuse to participate/desert. If you're pro Ukrainian, you'll be killed. If you're a fence sitter (which imho the majority are), you'll just be put under tremendous mental pressure until you either go into bandera rage and get easily slain at the front, or lose all hope in Zelensky and desert/help Russian forces.

Russia isn't trying to kill all Ukrainians, on the other hand, they actually need Ukrainians to become new Russians to make the war stay profitable/good for demographics. In the same way Israel isn't rolling out gas chambers for Palestinians either, they want to create a docile occupied "Israeli Arab" class.

I would say what makes Russia a more civilized state is that it is mostly clear that the Ukrainians will be considered an equal national identity, not as a racial underclass. Even though this is also Israel's official narrative, they show through actions towards anyone non white but especially blacks and Arabs that it is a lie.

It is likely not long term economically realistic to seek physical genocide (even if say Israel or Russia might have the firepower to actualize it), if you don't claim at least some of the people, all you achieved is burning a bunch of your own soldiers, ammo and weapons for empty land.

Biscuits said:

Their idea goes something like this: if you're pro Russian, you'll either outright join Russia or inform on Ukrainian forces/refuse to participate/desert. If you're pro Ukrainian, you'll be killed. If you're a fence sitter (which imho the majority are), you'll just be put under tremendous mental pressure until you either go into bandera rage and get easily slain at the front, or lose all hope in Zelensky and desert/help Russian forces.

Russia isn't trying to kill all Ukrainians, on the other hand, they actually need Ukrainians to become new Russians to make the war stay profitable/good for demographics. In the same way Israel isn't rolling out gas chambers for Palestinians either, they want to create a docile occupied "Israeli Arab" class.

I would say what makes Russia a more civilized state is that it is mostly clear that the Ukrainians will be considered an equal national identity, not as a racial underclass. Even though this is also Israel's official narrative, they show through actions towards anyone non white but especially blacks and Arabs that it is a lie.

It is likely not long term economically realistic to seek physical genocide (even if say Israel or Russia might have the firepower to actualize it), if you don't claim at least some of the people, all you achieved is burning a bunch of your own soldiers, ammo and weapons for empty land.

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Half of Ukraine speak Russian, those ppl are Russian. This is fundamentally why Russia can't go ham in Ukraine.

manqiangrexue said:

And my recommendation to both are the same: pick a side. Don't be hated everywhere.

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Why do I have to pick a side? In every forum there are opposing predominant ideas. It is not possible for everyone to be always right or wrong. In reality, there are right and wrong points on all sides.

It is a colossal stupidity to form an opinion following the herd and not being able to filter what is fact or simple propagated belief.

In American and Brazilian forums I have presented arguments similar to yours to contest the narrative of Ukrainian victory. Some politely disagreed, others went downhill like you with personal attacks. It's life.

In those forums the majority are bovinely pro-Ukraine and believe that Ukraine is winning, you would be made a laughingstock in them.

Here, on the other hand, the majority are moderately pro-Russian and politely accept independent opinions, except for you who always resort to personal attacks when you disagree with someone, curiously looking like the Ukrainian fans with the opposite orientation. I don't do this thing.

If I just wanted to get likes and be accepted I would repeat the predominant ideas in each forum, but I only use forums to inform myself independently and that's why I occasionally just present a counterpoint to what is just a cope. Only you resembled the Ukrainian fans here, however.

Biscuits said:

Again more "take stalingrad instead of sieging it" analysis.

What do you think Russia is doing erasing millions of Ukrainians? The goal is to filter anyone that isn't openly resisting Kiev (by opposing Zelensky and the TCC) and therefore creating a culturally Russian/assimilated Ukrainian generation as the only people left on the land.

Russia is much further progressed along their plans than Israel, but the nature of the plans are fundamentally similar. Israel struggles finding enough firepower/bodies to man all the fronts, and as such has made very limited advances and kills.

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No. I just pointed out Russia's contradictory policy in this war. Putin has repeatedly said that he would attack decision-making centers if Ukraine and the West crossed the red lines that Putin himself drew, but whenever the West ignored Russian red lines, Putin never kept his words and there were never attacks on decision-making centers in Ukraine.

This is the lack of deterrence and posturing that I criticized. If Russia really wants to win, it will have to keep its word. Or yes, the war will end in a stalemate.

Russia has full capacity to do to Ukraine what Israel did to Syria and Lebanon, but for some reason Russia stops keeping their word and loses deterrence and respect. Losing a general in their own capital is serious and only happened due to incompetence and loss of respect from the enemy with impunity.

Ukrainians pissing off Orban the peacemaker is a bad idea. Orban is one of the few people who have good relations with Putin, Xi and Trump, his diplomacy is top notch.