Since the Syrian thread is temporarily shut down, Assad looks like he might lose this time. The collapse is happening unabated. The last major city before Damascus is Homs.
I don't think the Mossad/CIA/Turkey-sponsored jihadists will rule the country. Instead, it will be a free-for-all like Libya. Carved out areas where each sectarian group fights the others. Perpetual chaos but there will be attempts made by Israel and its proxies (the US) to cut off supplies to Hezbollah.
Syria is only something like 10-15% Alevi and add another 10% Christians. Assad's rule was never popular with the conservative Sunni majority, who form two-thirds of the population. Many clearly show themselves willing to ally with Israel and the West as long as they can engage in sectarian conflict against Shias, Christians or Alevis.
The fate of Assad remains up in the air. While he is unlikely to rule Syria, I could see him retreating to Tartus (the Alevi hearland) and become a warlord in service of the Russians. If the Russians don't throw him under the bus or he gets assassinated first.
I think the sanctions did far more harm than most people realised. The state is bankrupt and there are reports of soldiers just switching sides in exchange for bribes. Neither Iran nor Russia seem willing to bail out the regime this time.