Since the Syrian thread is temporarily shut down, Assad looks like he might lose this time. The collapse is happening unabated. The last major city before Damascus is Homs.
I don't think the Mossad/CIA/Turkey-sponsored jihadists will rule the country. Instead, it will be a free-for-all like Libya. Carved out areas where each sectarian group fights the others. Perpetual chaos but there will be attempts made by Israel and its proxies (the US) to cut off supplies to Hezbollah.
Syria is only something like 10-15% Alevi and add another 10% Christians. Assad's rule was never popular with the conservative Sunni majority, who form two-thirds of the population. Many clearly show themselves willing to ally with Israel and the West as long as they can engage in sectarian conflict against Shias, Christians or Alevis.
The fate of Assad remains up in the air. While he is unlikely to rule Syria, I could see him retreating to Tartus (the Alevi hearland) and become a warlord in service of the Russians. If the Russians don't throw him under the bus or he gets assassinated first.
I think the sanctions did far more harm than most people realised. The state is bankrupt and there are reports of soldiers just switching sides in exchange for bribes. Neither Iran nor Russia seem willing to bail out the regime this time.
Well said. I have a feeling that this time, Assad's rule is gonna end soon. I believe that Russia is not gonna bail Assad out this time. All those years of money spent, lives lost, and equipment lost. And in a matter of days, Syria is back to its 2013 map. Even if the ideal of Assad's Syria is noble, this country is not sustainable anymore.
During those years of peace, Assad was unable to maneuver Syria's economy around Western sanctions. As a small nation, Syria cannot afford to stand up against Western financial power for too long. Doesn't matter what your ideal is, if your people starve, you're not gonna remain popular. Economic mismanagement along with repression will only bring disaster.
If Assad had strategic wisdom, he would not have antagonized Erdogan this year. Yes, Erdogan is still your enemy, but he has the upper hand if he wants to screw with you. Russia is effing busy with Ukraine. Iran is getting confused about it's confrontation with Israel. You don't have the cards to confront Erdogan, even if you have the moral high ground. Cut a deal with him, secure your nation first, and then think about backstabbing him later.
Assad's situation reminds me of the Qing Dynasty after the devastating Taiping Rebellion. Although the Qing defeated the Taiping Rebels, sometimes with foreign help, China was never the same. The Qing never recovered. More rebellions and foreign invasions followed soon after, and the Qing finally fell. Winning a major civil war is not always a final victory. If the root causes of the rebellion were not addressed, another rebellion is bound to happen, and you'll eventually lose.
Finally, to those people who proclaim that a post-Assad Syrian Caliphate will be a great paradise for China to invest in. Dream on. First rule of investment is what is the ROI? Assad's Syria had little to nothing to offer to China to invest, not even for a BRI road. What makes them think that a fractured Syrian Caliphate, ruled by terrorists and warlords is gonna offer China a better deal? Get real!
