Miscellaneous News

Overbom said:

oh well. old things are fashionable again. This enthusiasm for trade and economic war reminds me the last they tried this, they had similar beliefs

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More proof even the supposed elites of the Anglos cannot do basic maths. In 2023 Chinese exports to the U.S. totalled US$501bn, while China has a US$17.795T GDP. So total Chinese exports to America was only 2.815% of GDP. And a trade war is meant to knock 2.4% off China’s GDP. In 2025, when American exports will be a markedly smaller percentage of Chinese GDP than 2023. Sure.

China can stop all sales to America while not reducing imports by 1 cent and it still won’t result in a 2.4% drop in Chinese GDP. But take all Chinese products off of American shelves and see how many weeks they go before their entire way of life starts to implode.

China can win the trade war merely by telling the Americans, ‘You know what? Forget about price, I’m not fucking selling you a single screw any more.’ And just ban all exports to America.

That’s the brutal truth of how overmatched America is this time around. China has spent the last 6 years basically gearing up for round 2 while America has done essentially nothing other than virtue signalling and slogan shouting.

I don’t think China will play in such a crude way, it’s just a demonstration of how much escalation dominance China has.

plawolf said:

More proof even the supposed elites of the Anglos cannot do basic maths. In 2023 Chinese exports to the U.S. totalled US$501bn, while China has a US$17.795T GDP. So total Chinese exports to America was only 2.815% of GDP. And a trade war is meant to knock 2.4% off China’s GDP. In 2025, when American exports will be a markedly smaller percentage of Chinese GDP than 2023. Sure.

China can stop all sales to America while not reducing imports by 1 cent and it still won’t result in a 2.4% drop in Chinese GDP. But take all Chinese products off of American shelves and see how many weeks they go before their entire way of life starts to implode.

China can win the trade war merely by telling the Americans, ‘You know what? Forget about price, I’m not fucking selling you a single screw any more.’ And just ban all exports to America.

That’s the brutal truth of how overmatched America is this time around. China has spent the last 6 years basically gearing up for round 2 while America has done essentially nothing other than virtue signalling and slogan shouting.

I don’t think China will play in such a crude way, it’s just a demonstration of how much escalation dominance China has.

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for sure China will respond in a big way. The moment you show weakness you invite further aggression. Even now, with Trump elected, go online at Reddit, Twitter, Articles, Opinion pieces, think tankers, and they still think that they will prevail and collapse China with their 60% tariffs or whatever deluded plan they come up

We are talking about crazies here. Crazies cannot be reasoned with. The minimum that China needs to do is beat them hard enough that physical pain wakes them up. At worst, if they are crazy enough, take them down and off them

So there will be a response, a gigantic and powerful response at that, to discourage any further desperados in the EU from following US or whatever other measures that US would be planning

plawolf said:

More proof even the supposed elites of the Anglos cannot do basic maths. In 2023 Chinese exports to the U.S. totalled US$501bn, while China has a US$17.795T GDP. So total Chinese exports to America was only 2.815% of GDP. And a trade war is meant to knock 2.4% off China’s GDP. In 2025, when American exports will be a markedly smaller percentage of Chinese GDP than 2023. Sure.

China can stop all sales to America while not reducing imports by 1 cent and it still won’t result in a 2.4% drop in Chinese GDP. But take all Chinese products off of American shelves and see how many weeks they go before their entire way of life starts to implode.

China can win the trade war merely by telling the Americans, ‘You know what? Forget about price, I’m not fucking selling you a single screw any more.’ And just ban all exports to America.

That’s the brutal truth of how overmatched America is this time around. China has spent the last 6 years basically gearing up for round 2 while America has done essentially nothing other than virtue signalling and slogan shouting.

I don’t think China will play in such a crude way, it’s just a demonstration of how much escalation dominance China has.

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I've been saying this for a long time but others have said such a move would be dumb. Now that we have numbers where are the naysayers?

Overbom said:

for sure China will respond in a big way. The moment you show weakness you invite further aggression. Even now, with Trump elected, go online at Reddit, Twitter, Articles, Opinion pieces, think tankers, and they still think that they will prevail and collapse China with their 60% tariffs or whatever deluded plan they come up

We are talking about crazies here. Crazies cannot be reasoned with. The minimum that China needs to do is beat them hard enough that physical pain wakes them up. At worst, if they are crazy enough, take them down and off them

So there will be a response, a gigantic and powerful response at that, to discourage any further desperados in the EU from following US or whatever other measures that US would be planning

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If anything, this election has shown just how astroturfed and otherwise detached from reality Reddit, Twitter, mainstream news, think tanks are. They were running with the Trump faltering in the comeback narrative when it was 242:108 in favour of Trump. Imagine not even understanding your own countrymen to this extent.

I concur with the rest. When the US ceases to exist as a cohesive entity, the world will have made the biggest step towards peace in the last 200 years.

gelgoog said:

So what does Elon Musk know is going to happen?

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Wed, Nov 06, 2024

SpaceX asks Taiwanese firms to move​

Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) asked Taiwanese suppliers to transfer manufacturing out of Taiwan, leading to some relocating portions of their supply chain, according to sources employed by and close to the equipment makers and corporate documents.

A source at a company that is one of the numerous subcontractors that provide components for SpaceX’s Starlink satellite Internet products said that SpaceX asked their manufacturers to produce outside of Taiwan because of geopolitical risks, pushing at least one to move production to Vietnam.

A second source who collaborates with Taiwanese satellite component makers in the nation said that suppliers were directly asked by SpaceX to transfer manufacturing abroad.
...
Chin-Poon Industrial Co (敬鵬工業), a satellite component maker which said it was recently a SpaceX supplier, told reporters that the US company requested it move its manufacturing from Taiwan to Thailand for new orders “mostly due to geopolitical considerations.”

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The sheer stupidity of this is how long it will take to move any of Taiwans manufacturing to a so called safer space. Also it doesn’t take into account the fact that sooner or later that China will ultimately fully replace Taiwan in tech meaning that these U.S. actions are totally useless since China can ultimately sanction and cut all resources to these Taiwanese firms so that the USA will not have safe access to these items anyhow while China will have a resource that is completely under China control so that no sanction can dare to touch. Telling Taiwan to do these things in the open only puts a expiration date on Elon Musks firms and all these Taiwanese companies so really what is the point of telling the world what they are doing in this day and age. Trump coming to power will not change anything but make China accelerate its schedule even quicker so really is Elon musk really smart or is he a stupid con man who is biting the hand that feeds him. His companies will go under the moment China decides to make it go under at a time of Chinas choosing, not the other way round

Overbom said:

Gotta find my old Trump meme folder for when the inevitable actions against China start again
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Missed the first lesson in rocket launcher training... (always check back blast area)

Why drink light Republican when you can drink the real thing.

jiajia99 said:

The sheer stupidity of this is how long it will take to move any of Taiwans manufacturing to a so called safer space. Also it doesn’t take into account the fact that sooner or later that China will ultimately fully replace Taiwan in tech meaning that these U.S. actions are totally useless since China can ultimately sanction and cut all resources to these Taiwanese firms so that the USA will not have safe access to these items anyhow while China will have a resource that is completely under China control so that no sanction can dare to touch. Telling Taiwan to do these things in the open only puts a expiration date on Elon Musks firms and all these Taiwanese companies so really what is the point of telling the world what they are doing in this day and age. Trump coming to power will not change anything but make China accelerate its schedule even quicker so really is Elon musk really smart or is he a stupid con man who is biting the hand that feeds him. His companies will go under the moment China decides to make it go under at a time of Chinas choosing, not the other way round

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Locating in Thailand and Vietnam are close to China without the risk, they are welcoming Chinese investment. Taiwan can safely be abandoned. This is the real lesson.

supersnoop said:

Locating in Thailand and Vietnam are close to China without the risk, they are welcoming Chinese investment. Taiwan can safely be abandoned. This is the real lesson.

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I don’t believe the USA will safely abandon Taiwan without using that place as a trip wire. Plus rather then allow these firms to relocate to continue supplying the USA with chips in this fashion, Simply catch up to Taiwan in tech and then sanction these Taiwanese firms into the ground to cut the USA off from these advance chips for a length period when their infrastructure is this weakened. Also if Thailand and vietnam wants investment, why not use firms directly under China actual control (using tech that will not be use against Chinese interest) instead of these rogue Taiwanese firms that cannot be trusted

jiajia99 said:

I don’t believe the USA will safely abandon Taiwan without using that place as a trip wire. Plus rather then allow these firms to relocate to continue supplying the USA with chips in this fashion, Simply catch up to Taiwan in tech and then sanction these Taiwanese firms into the ground to cut the USA off from these advance chips for a length period when their infrastructure is this weakened. Also if Thailand and vietnam wants investment, why not use firms directly under China actual control (using tech that will not be use against Chinese interest) instead of these rogue Taiwanese firms that cannot be trusted

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It is not theirs to abandon. And the Americans must be suffer not just for territorial aggression, but for ongoing theft of IP and resources from Taiwan.

Now that we can soon expect a weakened US, it's time to consider options to mobilize in China, and as I've stated before, the strategy of cutting off US' most industrialized and innovative areas, SK and Japan, which will preemptively stop all future US aggression.

The PLA must emphasize not just quality but also begin a massive and general expansion drive. For example the standing ratio of 300 5th gen to 1000 of theirs shows a poor level of readiness in China, as does the lack of ships for the navy. US has deployed nearly 100 major ships, while China only operates 10 large DDGs and a few dozen of escort DDGs.

Ironically it is the current government which always criticizes other for cold war mentality who has the biggest cold war mentality - they find it inconceivable to work using anything but political manuevering, economics and spycraft.

The problems in Asia were started with war - by the violent rebellion of vassal states against a weakening China - and can only be solved with war. We need the 4%+ military spending. The best day to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The next best day is today. China must not rely anymore on others to do it's dirty work for it.

plawolf said:

China can win the trade war merely by telling the Americans, ‘You know what? Forget about price, I’m not fucking selling you a single screw any more.’ And just ban all exports to America.

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I really hope China goes in this direction. The Arabs did something similar with their oil embargo in 1973 - the last time they showed any strength, by the way - and Americans remember it to this day. If China does this, Americans will be traumatized for generations.