The issue is not just Trump but some of the racist white Christian far right who may very well seek a war against China if it came to a Taiwan issue or for the sake of white supremacy and in the belief that the non-whites cannot possibly win.
As for Trump, his narcissism that's tricky because he reacts with narcissistic rage if thwarted. Let's say he starts his global tariff war as well as cutting taxes and forcing interest rate decreases. That would spike inflation but then likely he would blame China as convenient non-white scapegoat if the economy crumbles. The risk is of escalation spiral, just like the last trade war where Trump kept hiking more tariffs in seeming disbelief that China could and would slap back with tariffs of its own. The classic bully mentality of being shocked when the other side punches back.
That was last time when China was still unsure if he really was as crude as he seemed. Also the Chinese economy then was much more heavily intwined with America’s, making many obvious retaliatory moves counter productive.
This time Chinese leadership knows exactly what they are facing with in Trump. Also, thanks to his earlier trade war and Biden continuing that trajectory, China’s economy is largely de-linked from America’s, while America is still heavily reliant on China for a whole catalogue of critically important inputs.
I think if Trump does start trade war 2.0, Chinese retaliatory measures will be a lot tougher than last time.
A bully will get more enraged if their victim punches back weakly, but hit them back harder than they can take and it’s often miraculous how quickly they change their tunes.
I expect Trump to do the equivalent of slapping China in the face with a blow that does little actual damage but looks very humiliating and for China to do the equivalent of giving him a devastating gut punch, but leave his face untouched and offering him to call it a draw as he doubles up winded. Trump can’t stand being publicly humiliated, but if you can humble him while avoiding that, you would have won his respect and can do business with him.
After that Trump will keep his own racists in line as he doesn’t want to take another blow like that again. And he has plenty of ways of distracting them by setting them off against liberals and illegals domestically.
It’s only a small chance that he will do a deal on Taiwan. Trump himself floated the ideas after all. But I think there is actually a chance now, whereas before there wasn’t.
If it looks like a grand bargain cannot be reached, then that’s more reason for China to go scotched earth during the trade war, as active prep for the much more likely hot war to follow, by further hollowing out the American economy.
As such, I think how severe the trade war goes might give indications on how likely it will grow into a hot war.