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Iracundus

New Member
Registered Member
Trump is a bully. That means he respects strength and will seek to ruthlessly capitalise on weakness.

He is also vindictive and stubborn, but above all else, greedy.

My view is that he will start his new trade war, and China will punish him and America savagely for it. But China is also likely to somewhat pull its punches and offer him a way to back out of it with some dignity left. His pathology makes it almost inevitable that you need to fight him and beat him first before he will respect you and make deals with you. If you seek to just make deals with him first, he will just keep pushing for more and it will never be enough to satisfy him.

I also think Trump would much prefer to go back to the old world where he was happy and comfortable. Which means throwing the Ukrainians under the bus to make nice with Putin and maybe starting a war with Iran in the ME.

But I think more than anything, Trump is an isolationist and wants to just focus on America, where he will have the most fun purging all his domestic enemies.

I can actually see Trump seeking a grand bargain with China on Taiwan. Where for economic concessions to help him bolster his crumbing economy (after loosing Trade War 2.0 much worse than his first trade war with China), he will support peaceful reunification.

The biggest losers will be the EU, I can actually see the EU and NATO dissolving as America unilaterally makes peace with Russia and withdraws security guarantees while also actively harvesting the EU nations as it seeks to advance American interests at all costs across all fronts. Russia will swallow up all of Ukraine and basically start to pay the rest of Europe back for all the Russian blood they enthusiastically helped to spill in Ukraine.

So it may end up being that America strikes a grand bargain with Russian and China where the Monroe doctrine is revamped and the former keeps out of America’s hemisphere while America retreats out of the Eurasia world island and becomes real life Gilead.

The issue is not just Trump but some of the racist white Christian far right who may very well seek a war against China if it came to a Taiwan issue or for the sake of white supremacy and in the belief that the non-whites cannot possibly win.

As for Trump, his narcissism that's tricky because he reacts with narcissistic rage if thwarted. Let's say he starts his global tariff war as well as cutting taxes and forcing interest rate decreases. That would spike inflation but then likely he would blame China as convenient non-white scapegoat if the economy crumbles. The risk is of escalation spiral, just like the last trade war where Trump kept hiking more tariffs in seeming disbelief that China could and would slap back with tariffs of its own. The classic bully mentality of being shocked when the other side punches back.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
So what does Elon Musk know is going to happen?

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Wed, Nov 06, 2024

SpaceX asks Taiwanese firms to move​

Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) asked Taiwanese suppliers to transfer manufacturing out of Taiwan, leading to some relocating portions of their supply chain, according to sources employed by and close to the equipment makers and corporate documents.

A source at a company that is one of the numerous subcontractors that provide components for SpaceX’s Starlink satellite Internet products said that SpaceX asked their manufacturers to produce outside of Taiwan because of geopolitical risks, pushing at least one to move production to Vietnam.

A second source who collaborates with Taiwanese satellite component makers in the nation said that suppliers were directly asked by SpaceX to transfer manufacturing abroad.
...
Chin-Poon Industrial Co (敬鵬工業), a satellite component maker which said it was recently a SpaceX supplier, told reporters that the US company requested it move its manufacturing from Taiwan to Thailand for new orders “mostly due to geopolitical considerations.”
 

Arij Javaid

Junior Member
Registered Member
Trump will be better for china. You must be wondering why.

Here's why, the biggest favour trump could hand to China is by weakening NATO and giving Europe the ultimatum to fund your own defense.

This will deteriorate the alliance between US and European countries and would hopefully propel the Europeans to form its own independent bloc.

This will help China as China could come in and exploit the tensions by offering juicy economic deals.

Secondly, Trump will most likely want to contain China and shift US policy towards east Asia but there's a country called Israel that wants to drag US back into the middle east

Due to the power of Israeli lobby, I believe trump will have to make a very bold decision whether to go to war with Iran for the sake of israel. If he does, then this gives china advantage as US will be preoccupied and China would probably fund iran to weaken US military.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The issue is not just Trump but some of the racist white Christian far right who may very well seek a war against China if it came to a Taiwan issue or for the sake of white supremacy and in the belief that the non-whites cannot possibly win.

As for Trump, his narcissism that's tricky because he reacts with narcissistic rage if thwarted. Let's say he starts his global tariff war as well as cutting taxes and forcing interest rate decreases. That would spike inflation but then likely he would blame China as convenient non-white scapegoat if the economy crumbles. The risk is of escalation spiral, just like the last trade war where Trump kept hiking more tariffs in seeming disbelief that China could and would slap back with tariffs of its own. The classic bully mentality of being shocked when the other side punches back.

That was last time when China was still unsure if he really was as crude as he seemed. Also the Chinese economy then was much more heavily intwined with America’s, making many obvious retaliatory moves counter productive.

This time Chinese leadership knows exactly what they are facing with in Trump. Also, thanks to his earlier trade war and Biden continuing that trajectory, China’s economy is largely de-linked from America’s, while America is still heavily reliant on China for a whole catalogue of critically important inputs.

I think if Trump does start trade war 2.0, Chinese retaliatory measures will be a lot tougher than last time.

A bully will get more enraged if their victim punches back weakly, but hit them back harder than they can take and it’s often miraculous how quickly they change their tunes.

I expect Trump to do the equivalent of slapping China in the face with a blow that does little actual damage but looks very humiliating and for China to do the equivalent of giving him a devastating gut punch, but leave his face untouched and offering him to call it a draw as he doubles up winded. Trump can’t stand being publicly humiliated, but if you can humble him while avoiding that, you would have won his respect and can do business with him.

After that Trump will keep his own racists in line as he doesn’t want to take another blow like that again. And he has plenty of ways of distracting them by setting them off against liberals and illegals domestically.

It’s only a small chance that he will do a deal on Taiwan. Trump himself floated the ideas after all. But I think there is actually a chance now, whereas before there wasn’t.

If it looks like a grand bargain cannot be reached, then that’s more reason for China to go scotched earth during the trade war, as active prep for the much more likely hot war to follow, by further hollowing out the American economy.

As such, I think how severe the trade war goes might give indications on how likely it will grow into a hot war.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member

Iracundus

New Member
Registered Member
I expect Trump to do the equivalent of slapping China in the face with a blow that does little actual damage but looks very humiliating and for China to do the equivalent of giving him a devastating gut punch, but leave his face untouched and offering him to call it a draw as he doubles up winded. Trump can’t stand being publicly humiliated, but if you can humble him while avoiding that, you would have won his respect and can do business with him.

This bit could be the potential hard bit? How to hit hard enough without giving Trump narcissistic injury (i.e. humiliating him) as that would just make him rage harder? You have to be hard enough for him to notice as anything too subtle or distant in the future will not register, but if you are immediate and obvious that runs the risk of him being humiliated and looking weak which will then prompt him to escalate further because he cannot stand that from a psychological point of view.
 

Randomuser

Junior Member
Registered Member
20241106_175456.jpg
I remember hearing Indians boast so much about these two and how Indians will dominate politics.

Let's see

Both got to where they were unelected
Both backstabbed the person above them
Both not only failed their elections but probably in the worst manner in recent years

Now you see why Indians depend so much on nepotism. Without that they really have nothing.

And before I hear them go we always supported Trump, just them being bandwagonners again. They were so loud about these two not too long ago but somehow they never supported them now? Another thing to dislike about their behaviour is just lack of commitment when things get tough.
 
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