Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
What’s most likely going to happen is this: another Trump term means U.S. foreign policy will shift its primary focus back to China.
From 2016 to 2020, there was really no major geopolitical event other than the New Cold War Trump initiated against China. Meanwhile, in the four years of the single-term Biden administration, we’ve seen them ignite two major conflicts directly triggered by its actions. Trump’s victory speech last night declared that he “will not start wars” and that there will be “no wars” in his term. Based on the record of his first term compared to Biden’s, this isn’t actually that disingenuous. U.S. involvement in those regions is ultimately a “distraction” in the calculus of the ultimate showdown against China that all those National Security Council papers and NATO communiques have been repeatedly fantasizing about.
On the campaign trail, Trump explicitly said he would "try his best" to break up the Sino-Russian relationship, calling Biden’s policy of "bringing Russia and Iran closer to China" one of the worst mistakes of the latter's presidency. To accomplish this, Trump would need to winding down the war in Ukraine. Since the first Trump term has showcased that any controversial policies Trump pursues can be narratively spun by the Democrats as “just Trump being Trump,” they might actually acquiesce to it just like they ultimately did with Afghanistan and simply work on spinning the excuse to US allies that the reputational damage to American prestige from abandoning Europe through a de-escalation with Russia can’t be held against the US because it’s not exemplary of "the real America.”
In truth, this is something much of the U.S. foreign policy establishment has always privately supported—because these conflicts have distracted the U.S. from their long-delayed "Pivot to Asia.” Through the entire Biden term, think tanks like RAND and figures such as that Kissinger “realist” wannabe Mearsheimer, were repeatedly screaming that China should be the main U.S. focus. Yet, under Biden, this was largely ignored. In fact, I distinctly remember the day after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when much of the Western media was whipped into a frenzy, calling for blood and even canceling Tchaikovsky performances in a wave of Russophobia, the still had articles shouting at Washington not to lose sight of China as the “long-term adversary.”
The contemporary Sino-Russian relationship is built on economic material conditions and therefore is much more resilient against "divide and conquer" tactics like what was done during the Nixon era to Sino-Soviet relations. However, if the Ukraine conflict begins to de-escalate through some form of settlement, Putin might respond with a quid pro quo—scaling back Russia’s role as the public face of the multipolar bloc that it had been in the role of since the Ukraine conflict and with the potential of becoming a more "shy" player where Medvedev isn't shouting about Russian nukes on Telegram every week. Of course, this outcome can be mitigated by China recognizing its possibility and leveraging its strengthened relationship to disincentivize Russia from such a direction. Nevertheless, you'll likely see BJP India, whom Biden and the West have had visibly chillier relations with, once again emboldened to hedge itself as a QUAD member now that "Modi's friend" (who he endorsed in 2020) is back and the American focus will be (attempting to) return towards the so-called "Indo-Pacific." On the other hand, you might once again also see the tedious phenomenon of Chinese liberals trot out the delusional fantasy of "neutral Europe" if Trump alienates the latter and those Chinese liberals spamming endless articles about a "Sino-European bloc" once again to distract China from deepening its more sustainable ties with the Global South.
One thing about Trump’s foreign policy that people miss is that they focus too much on him as an individual opponent, when the real drivers are the neoconservative Reaganite-wannabes he surrounds himself with. These are the people who are single-mindedly obsessed with China and the “regime change” fantasy. Backed by access to US government funds and resources once again, they will represent a serious threat. They were obsessive enough with the idea of "containing" China that they even bribed land-locked Nepal with signing onto the MCC agreement to try to grow influence there and subvert them against China. It’s no coincidence that the Xinjiang atrocity propaganda and the Hong Kong color revolution attempt both began during the Trump term.
On this matter, one annoying discourse trend that should be undoubtedly expected is that with Trump now to be handed charge of the Gaza genocide, Western liberals are now safe to try to "have their cake and eat it too.” They'll be imminently engaging in historical revisionism to try and absolve themselves of any responsibility for the genocide begun under Biden so that they can shift the narrative back to sponsoring Xinjiang propaganda, which, to their great sorrow, they’ve noticeably had to downplay over the past year for fear of sabotaging the Biden re-election when people respond with, “What about Gaza?" I expect that probably the very minute after Trump’s inauguration speech, Western media discourse will inevitably start spewing some repulsively cynical "I condemn both Gaza and Xinjiang" propaganda messaging drive once the Democrats have been booted from office
As such, while Trump may be “bumbling” and many think they have ways to “handle him,” you’ll very likely see these same Reaganite wannabe neocons and literal white nationalist figures from his first term rear their heads again as his new appointees— who want no negotiation or compromise with China other than their delusion of repeating the Soviet collapse. If so, one can expect to see the same kind of intransigent arrogance directed towards China that the Biden administration have shown in refusing to deal with Russia in any meaningful way.
The silver lining with Trump back in office is that China will be able to point to this article for the entire second Trump term to legitimately justify any potential domestic national security measures using the irrefutable admission of CIA subversion campaigns in China that Trump signed off on, which his own administration officials revealed during the Biden term, apparently thinking that who thought (evidently mistakingly) that with him out of office for good that it was now safe for them to start bragging about their "feats." It’s now a convenient little gift in revealing what a Trump White House’s intentions are against China:
From 2016 to 2020, there was really no major geopolitical event other than the New Cold War Trump initiated against China. Meanwhile, in the four years of the single-term Biden administration, we’ve seen them ignite two major conflicts directly triggered by its actions. Trump’s victory speech last night declared that he “will not start wars” and that there will be “no wars” in his term. Based on the record of his first term compared to Biden’s, this isn’t actually that disingenuous. U.S. involvement in those regions is ultimately a “distraction” in the calculus of the ultimate showdown against China that all those National Security Council papers and NATO communiques have been repeatedly fantasizing about.
On the campaign trail, Trump explicitly said he would "try his best" to break up the Sino-Russian relationship, calling Biden’s policy of "bringing Russia and Iran closer to China" one of the worst mistakes of the latter's presidency. To accomplish this, Trump would need to winding down the war in Ukraine. Since the first Trump term has showcased that any controversial policies Trump pursues can be narratively spun by the Democrats as “just Trump being Trump,” they might actually acquiesce to it just like they ultimately did with Afghanistan and simply work on spinning the excuse to US allies that the reputational damage to American prestige from abandoning Europe through a de-escalation with Russia can’t be held against the US because it’s not exemplary of "the real America.”
In truth, this is something much of the U.S. foreign policy establishment has always privately supported—because these conflicts have distracted the U.S. from their long-delayed "Pivot to Asia.” Through the entire Biden term, think tanks like RAND and figures such as that Kissinger “realist” wannabe Mearsheimer, were repeatedly screaming that China should be the main U.S. focus. Yet, under Biden, this was largely ignored. In fact, I distinctly remember the day after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when much of the Western media was whipped into a frenzy, calling for blood and even canceling Tchaikovsky performances in a wave of Russophobia, the still had articles shouting at Washington not to lose sight of China as the “long-term adversary.”
The contemporary Sino-Russian relationship is built on economic material conditions and therefore is much more resilient against "divide and conquer" tactics like what was done during the Nixon era to Sino-Soviet relations. However, if the Ukraine conflict begins to de-escalate through some form of settlement, Putin might respond with a quid pro quo—scaling back Russia’s role as the public face of the multipolar bloc that it had been in the role of since the Ukraine conflict and with the potential of becoming a more "shy" player where Medvedev isn't shouting about Russian nukes on Telegram every week. Of course, this outcome can be mitigated by China recognizing its possibility and leveraging its strengthened relationship to disincentivize Russia from such a direction. Nevertheless, you'll likely see BJP India, whom Biden and the West have had visibly chillier relations with, once again emboldened to hedge itself as a QUAD member now that "Modi's friend" (who he endorsed in 2020) is back and the American focus will be (attempting to) return towards the so-called "Indo-Pacific." On the other hand, you might once again also see the tedious phenomenon of Chinese liberals trot out the delusional fantasy of "neutral Europe" if Trump alienates the latter and those Chinese liberals spamming endless articles about a "Sino-European bloc" once again to distract China from deepening its more sustainable ties with the Global South.
One thing about Trump’s foreign policy that people miss is that they focus too much on him as an individual opponent, when the real drivers are the neoconservative Reaganite-wannabes he surrounds himself with. These are the people who are single-mindedly obsessed with China and the “regime change” fantasy. Backed by access to US government funds and resources once again, they will represent a serious threat. They were obsessive enough with the idea of "containing" China that they even bribed land-locked Nepal with signing onto the MCC agreement to try to grow influence there and subvert them against China. It’s no coincidence that the Xinjiang atrocity propaganda and the Hong Kong color revolution attempt both began during the Trump term.
On this matter, one annoying discourse trend that should be undoubtedly expected is that with Trump now to be handed charge of the Gaza genocide, Western liberals are now safe to try to "have their cake and eat it too.” They'll be imminently engaging in historical revisionism to try and absolve themselves of any responsibility for the genocide begun under Biden so that they can shift the narrative back to sponsoring Xinjiang propaganda, which, to their great sorrow, they’ve noticeably had to downplay over the past year for fear of sabotaging the Biden re-election when people respond with, “What about Gaza?" I expect that probably the very minute after Trump’s inauguration speech, Western media discourse will inevitably start spewing some repulsively cynical "I condemn both Gaza and Xinjiang" propaganda messaging drive once the Democrats have been booted from office
As such, while Trump may be “bumbling” and many think they have ways to “handle him,” you’ll very likely see these same Reaganite wannabe neocons and literal white nationalist figures from his first term rear their heads again as his new appointees— who want no negotiation or compromise with China other than their delusion of repeating the Soviet collapse. If so, one can expect to see the same kind of intransigent arrogance directed towards China that the Biden administration have shown in refusing to deal with Russia in any meaningful way.
The silver lining with Trump back in office is that China will be able to point to this article for the entire second Trump term to legitimately justify any potential domestic national security measures using the irrefutable admission of CIA subversion campaigns in China that Trump signed off on, which his own administration officials revealed during the Biden term, apparently thinking that who thought (evidently mistakingly) that with him out of office for good that it was now safe for them to start bragging about their "feats." It’s now a convenient little gift in revealing what a Trump White House’s intentions are against China:
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Oil embargo is related to Gulf Monarchies and they have always shown strength through out history start with head on fighting against Soviet communism post 1945. It took them a while to understand that State of Israel should be there.
No other tribe has as proud history as Arabs despite limitation of small population and extreme desert environment near equator with limited food/ water which prevents formation of industrial civilization. it is not just this military affairs. despite extreme Wealth in Gulf Monarchies there domestic population and culture not collapse it should. Even now it was Arabs who stand with Trump by giving billions to his relatives and former officials when even Netanyahu was not touching him.
and Russia has practically zero chance of standing up to West without Arab support despite so much Arab wealth stored and Arab aviation dependency on US/EU. who take such risks?. and yes this Green is the ranking.
Let's not forget that Biden was the most revanchist US regime in over 2 decades if ever, having even greater expansion ambitions than Trump. Biden cabinet was stacked 120% with anti-China people. So what happened?
In 2016, China had just newly overtaken US as the no1 economy, and we didn't have any time to build up on that lead whatsoever before hostilities started. The trade war was on paper an even fight between 2 similar sized combatants.
But during Biden's leadership, China has advanced ahead, while US largely remained where it was. So when Biden tried to initiate a fight with China, this time, China simply sent Russia to hold them away. Having attained clear economical supremacy, China now has the option to outspend and outbuild US, which means they can easily incite proxies and then make those proxies very bothersome for US to fight.
So I think the same thing will happen here. Biden had all the will in the world to go Asia, but he was stalled on the way by China. China will again intercept with political manuevering and subterfuge, and it will be hard or impossible for US to stop it. They don't have the economy to go head to head.
Brother, China is in the similar latitudes and it is the current premier industrial and military power, you have no excuses.
Face it, gulf arabs are simply lazy af. Native oafs who get colonized because theyre easily manipulated by shiny objects and do not have a sense of national unity in defense, nor pride in their soil and blood. Chinese tech, goods, Russian advisors and Iranian bravery carries Islam's cause in the holy land.
Gulf arabs at least have the sense to switch to yuan, and perhaps we will see them adopt it in exclusivity. But nothing more than economical support can be expected from them. Gulf monarchs are talkers first and foremost, who look after which nation they should be compradors to. And fine, China can tolerate them. But lets not act if they're not massive traitors to their own kind.
Good analysis.
However, I think the Pivot to Asia thing will be stalled again. Comrade Netanyahu is here to help. I predict that he will keep Trump busy for a long time, and if we are lucky, may even drag the US to another ME war where China and Russia will finally have the opportunity to give the US some payback for its Ukraine aid
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how can they be lazy?. have you tried working and study there before the advent of Western electricity that is reliable for there environment like Toyota air conditioning in vehicles?
This was very specific message for the whole world to know as Putin was visiting. I will not answer the last bold part.
I am sure they are using various currencies but no one can change there fundamental dependencies on Boeing/Airbus. These are desert environments where that Leap engine takes years and yet to meet the standards.
Gulf Monarchies stood with Russian in this Ukraine conflict despite most of there wealth stored in West. so how can they be a talkers?. may be you don't understand the ukraine conflict.
Germany faces snap election as Scholz's coalition crumbles
- Scholz sacks finance minister Lindner over budget disputes
- Scholz expected to lead minority government with Social Democrats and Greens
- Political shake-up could benefit populist movements such as AfD
The meltdown continues in r/europe.
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As soon as Scholz mentioned the stupid idea of importing Indian "help" the rebellion/decline begins-just ask Canada.