Not seeing it. Ideology is always trumped by dialectic material analysis. The opinions and feeling of fleshbags do not ultimately matter in the grand scheme of things.
Sounds like Isaac Azimov's "psychohistory". I would advise not to read too much into it. It is still science fiction. In history, the human factor is always important.
Interestingly, the PLA references von Clausewitz more than Sun Zi these days.
That is a good thing. The PLA is updating their knowledge, and not just sticking to dogmatic thinking like the West.
Equivalent tit-for-tat is very different from tit-for-tat. The same industry in different countries will have different valuations. Therefore a mirror approach to tariffs will not reach equivalence.
Yes. That is why China and others have to tailor their strategies when hitting back at the West.
Tell that to Carrie Lam who has to pile cash in her home because no banks will touch her money with a ten foot pole.
LoL! How did you know that her house had piles of cash? In any case, she can always put her money in Chinese banks or Western banks by proxy.
I don't see ASML selling EUV litho machines to China anytime soon.
Well soon, ASML won't be selling high-end DUV litho machines to China too. But at what cost?
Short term wise, this litho machine trade restriction will bottleneck China's semiconductor industry. But in the longer term, the Chinese will eventually find a way to break that bottleneck. They are messing with a nation who can build their own Space Station after being denied entry to the ISS. Let them suffer for eternally for that.
I also think Gucci bags selling for $20,000 when something of equivalent quality can be made for $20 in a Chinese factory is incredibly stupid. This mentally colonized attitude is absolutely a disgrace, I agree. Ideally Chinese people should have the hunger to challenge the global status quo of their own volition. That revolutionary spirit has since died with Mao.
Yes. All that happy trading days with the West had created an obsession with Western luxury products. Still, the trade wars and Anglo-led Sinophobia wave had toned that down. But its still there, and still very pervasive in China. There is still much more work to be done.
Yes the boom years are over. This malaise may very well become a feedback loop. Something must be done to restore faith in the domestic market without allowing capitalism and consumerism to spread their corruption further.
The Chinese government is working hard to transform the economy, setting up new engines of growth, so that a new boom time could come, but this time on China's terms. This is a very painful period of adjustments. People have to be patient and change some of their old ways of doing business. So the CPC is using propaganda (in a good way) to rally the people and lighten the mood. Nevertheless, propaganda doesn't always work, so we'll still hear disgruntled voices.
Compare this to the West blaring MAGA, Garden, and Peter Zeihan propaganda 24-7. Or India blaring Jai Hind and China sux propaganda everyday. They are using propaganda to hide the problems in their country. Problems that they just don't care to fix.
Gallium and germanium export restrictions is a step in the right direction but not significant enough to make the west scream. A mere reduction gives the west time to stockpile and adjust. Ideally gallium, germanium, neodymium, samarium, and tungsten should have been cut off cold turkey with no warning.
We have to be careful about that. Cutting off swathes of material supplies cold turkey is not necessarily a good thing. The West had done that, and now their reputation as reliable suppliers have been hit.
If China suddenly cuts off large amounts of rare earth metal supplies to the West, it would create two major problems. First, China's reputation as THE go-to supplier of rare earth metals will be impacted, even if those supply bans were justified. Second, the West will embark on a crash course to build up their own alternative industry to supply themselves with rare earth metals. Off course, one could argue that the West is doing this now anyways. But should China force their hands now, it'll become a do-or-die situation, and they'll do it with utmost urgency. Because the West have plenty of ore in North America and Australia, and they have the know-how to refine them into rare earth metals. Its just that they haven't had the incentive to build up the capacity to match China's production scale yet. So if China wants to put export restrictions on its rare earth metals, it has to do it selectively, and strategically. So as to give tangible impact, but also not rock the boat too much that the West is forced to become a competitive alternative in the rare earths market.
