TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – More than half of Taiwanese believe the United States will send troops to Taiwan if China attacks, a poll by a top military think tank showed Wednesday (Oct. 9).
The Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) found that 52.6% of poll respondents expected US soldiers in Taiwan. More than 70% saw at least indirect assistance from the US, per CNA.
The poll results may have been influenced by Washington’s policy of “strategic ambiguity,” according to INDSR Chief Executive Officer Lee Wen-chung (李文忠).
The indirect assistance would take the form of weapons, medicine, and food drops, with the US also imposing sanctions on China. According to 40% of the respondents, the US Navy would try and break a Chinese blockade even at the risk of direct confrontation.
As to the nature of the Chinese threat, 63.9% described its territorial ambition as a serious threat, 19.4% as an important but not serious threat, and 9.5% as not an important threat. Looking at the timing of a Chinese invasion, more than 60% did not see it happening within the next five years, though 24.3% said there was a possibility of an attack by 2029.
If a cross-strait war broke out, 67.8% would be willing to fight to repel the Chinese attack. However, there were mixed feelings about the defense capabilities of Taiwan’s military, with 47.5% expressing confidence but 47.9% lacking trust.
The Election Study Center at National Chengchi University conducted the phone poll on behalf of INDSR Sept. 9-16, and received 1,214 valid samples with a margin of error of 2.81%.
A majority of Americans are in favor of the US supporting Taiwan, but most do not want their country to go to war with China, a US think tank poll showed yesterday.
Fifty-one percent of respondents in the Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey said they believe that the US should encourage Taiwan to maintain the “status quo,” rather than move toward independence (36 percent) or unification (4 percent).
The survey found positive sentiment toward Taiwan from most Americans: 61 percent of respondents said they supported recognizing Taiwan as an independent country, 59 percent support Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations and 74 percent support US weapons transfers to Taiwan.
Should China invade Taiwan, Americans support a range of policies to aid Taiwan, with 74 percent saying they support airlifting supplies to the country, while 72 percent said they support economic and diplomatic sanctions on China, and 59 percent support the US providing arms to Taiwan.
However, the poll found significant skepticism about direct US involvement in military affairs, especially if that could lead to war with China.
Up to 58 percent oppose putting US forces into a position that could lead to war with China, while only 37 percent of respondents said they support using the US Navy to break a blockade and 36 percent support sending troops to help defend Taiwan.
Craig Kafura, the report’s author and director of public opinion and foreign policy at the think tank, said the results “seem to present a puzzle,” as most Americans are in favor of greater support and deepening ties with Taiwan, but are wary of war.
The slight decrease in support for direct military intervention in the past three years of polling could also be influenced by US support for Ukraine and Israel, which feed into a sense that the country is overcommitted and overextended around the world, Kafura wrote.
The results were also generally bipartisan, as Democrats, Republicans and independents all showed similar levels of support for the policy options.
The survey also showed that 42 percent of respondents support a formal commitment to defend Taiwan, while 59 percent support the US signing a free-trade agreement with Taiwan and 62 percent said the US-Taiwan security relationship does more to strengthen US national security than to weaken it.
