I still remember back in the mid 80s while growing up in HK, one year when visiting relatives in China I brought with me a top model Toshiba portable cassette player (aka Walkman), very small and light. I showed it to my uncle who was an educated man but due to my grandfather being a high ranking naval officer in the KMT during WW2 and fled to HK after the war, my relatives in China didn't have the best opportunities as you can imagine.Playing catch-up is not shameful or unexpected. 20 years ago, China was not really leading in anything, and 30 years ago was definitely without-doubt behind.
If we look at a simple consumer product, the robovac, iRobot was peerless 20 years ago. Today they are a horribly indebted company that was counting on Amazon's lifeline before being quashed by regulators.
In the face of mounting debt and diminishing revenue, the survival of the company is in question.
Why is the revenue diminishing? Basically the low end is dominated by white label Chinese goods on Amazon or whatever platform, they lost this market a long time ago. Their bread and butter, the high end, has basically been absolutely destroyed by new Chinese competition such as Roborock and Ecovacs.
Roborock's pace of innovation has allowed it to raise prices on the newest models and now command a hefty premium over a comparable iRobot model which has cut prices to try to compete. Customers' have spoken and prefer LIDAR based navigation over Visual. 20 years going and bumping into furniture is still a major complaint of iRobot's Roombas.
Leading to the next point. LIDAR technology is simply maturing in China much faster than in the West. 10 years ago, Velodyne was the unquestionable market leader. Today, Hesai is simply better and cheaper. In the Automotive market alone it commands a 47% market share.
Velodyne was acquired by Ouster and recently lost a patent infringement case against Hesai in US Court.
Meanwhile US Congress-critters are relying on jingoistic reports with outdated information in their decision making process that have a national impact.
- Note they already lost by August 2023 and this report was updated in May 2024.
Particularly head in the rear-ended quote. The reality is that the LIDAR market has grown with the EV market in China and Chinese automakers are increasingly looking at domestic suppliers in the face of US government interference.
My uncle examined the player very closely, marvelled at the precision engineering and high tech sophistication of Japan, wondered and saddened by how far behind China was, contemplating if we could ever catch up...
He was an intellect and philosophical about the cards he was dealt and wasn't bitter. He taught me physics and engineering stuff including how a nuclear power reactor works. He passed away many years ago, before China becoming a leader in many tech fields. I often wish he could have lived longer to witness how China has advanced against all odds, he would be proud of the great nation.
Thank you for taking a walk down the memory lane with me.
Last edited: