Miscellaneous News

tokenanalyst said:

They will lower the rates that will have some effect.

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Then the inflation chart will look like the earlier interest payment on debt chart.

AssassinsMace said:

The panic comes if China sells it off, the US won't have the money to back everyone hence why panic would ensure for everyone is racing to not be the one that loses their money. When that happens, the US will do things to prevent people from getting their money hence adds to the panic

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That’s not exactly true. The US will always have USD because the Fed can always print(and they will). Thats a pretty massive double edged sword with inflation and weakening of the dollar, but no one’s going lose their money or not get paid back

chgough34 said:

No. China’s holdings of treasuries are equivalent of just one day of treasury trading. It would be 72 hours of heightened volatility before everything goes back to normal. Treasuries as being THE risk-free instrument is tautological among US investors.

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Trading volume has little bearing in the scope of this conversation on the overall U.S. debt situation. Its a weak argument that only sounds good to people with who don’t have a fair understanding of financial markets, trading lingo and banking fundamentals.

China has traditionally been a buyer of last resort of US Treasuries. They would buy as a natural condition of the USD they accumulate from their trade surplus which helps keep interest rates down without causing inflation. If/when this stops, it severely limits the U.S. governments ability to print and add liquidity during a major crisis.

The U.S. has managed print money(lower interest rates) for the last 40 years during all major crisis periods(1990 banking crisis, 2000 tech bubble, 2007 financial collapse, et al.) without spiking up inflation up until now… when inflation peaked at 8% shortly after Covid. So certainly what has worked before is no longer working, something fundamental has shifted in the markets that absorb the printed money without causing inflation.

vincent said:

Stop feeding trolls

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Why do you give this advice? You are a mod, right? You decide who to ban depending on whether or not the posts are appropriate. If they are deemed appropriate, then it would be appropriate to continue the discussion and reply. If they are deemed inappropriate, then there should be warnings up to bans issued.

I don't have an opinion on what should be done, because I don't know if posting American $1.6B Twitter disinformation from nutjob charts counts as trolling/disruptive/rule-violating or if they simply count as raising opposing views to be fact-checked and dismissed informatively. Nor do I think it really matters since this is his like 10th burner account and it won't be his last. I'm happy to play Whack-A-Mole with him whenever under whatever name he reappears with.

But it's weird when a mod asks people to just ignore a member; that's what members ask other members to do because they think the posts are pollution but they can't do anything about it because they don't have the powers of a mod.

chgough34 said:

China’s fiscal trajectory is far more unsustainable than the U.S.’ fiscal trajectory

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794271961180414389

the interest payments especially are a soon to be moot point since rate cuts are coming and the main drivers of debt - social security and Medicare, are of limited macroeconomic importance (it will just require a headline grabbing event to make Congress move)

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The Chinese debt numbers come from a concept the IMF calls "augmented debt." Search for "augmented debt."

Augmented debt "expands the perimeter of the government to include off-budget and LGFV [local government financing vehicle] activity." The numbers are .

Augmented debt is a useful concept. However, LGFV debts are investments that yield returns. On the other hand, "normal" government debt is used for things like pensions and military spending - these do not yield any return at all. Building and selling property via LGFVs gives the government money back (even when sold at a loss). Transferring money to pensioners is a total loss for the government (although obviously a societal good). Thus one should not compare LGFV debt with normal government debt.

Finally, "augmented debt" is an estimate. It is a figure made up by the IMF, and thus subject to potential political manipulation.

manqiangrexue said:

Why do you give this advice? You are a mod, right?

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I don't mod outside of World Armed Forces

FriedButter said:

Where did people say we are the defenders of freedom of speech? That is some crappy excuse to use against users for wanting to post a rebuttal. So why is it a problem when users want to post a rebuttal against misinformation? If people want to response then I say we let them. No one is forcing you to read anything. You are more than capable of using your eyes and brain to instantly determine if you want to continue reading it. All you need to do is scroll past it.

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Its somewhat ironic that mods who want this forum to have some class and standards don’t see anything wrong with having the literal village idiot endlessly screeching idiot nonsense and literal state funded disinformation propaganda.

If they wanted to stick to the rules, just ban him under the long established no multiple accounts rules as this is like the 34th time he has made a new account after his previous were banned.

I’m guessing the mods just can’t be bothered anymore and just tolerates it so long as he stays in this thread.

One of those great documentaries buried on YouTube, with only 37k views after 12 years, made by a notable, decorated journalist, documenting the corruption of American media after 9/11

proelite said:

If there is any post that proves this dude either doesn't live in the US or work a job getting paid above minimum wage. This is it.

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Who outside the U.S. would even know about Title VII, be familiar with disparate impact as a legal theory, etc? Are you even going to dispute how my two examples
of standard hiring practices can reduce talent available to corpos?

plawolf said:

Its somewhat ironic that mods who want this forum to have some class and standards don’t see anything wrong with having the literal village idiot endlessly screeching idiot nonsense and literal state funded disinformation propaganda.

If they wanted to stick to the rules, just ban him under the long established no multiple accounts rules as this is like the 34th time he has made a new account after his previous were banned.

I’m guessing the mods just can’t be bothered anymore and just tolerates it so long as he stays in this thread.

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Controlled Opposition, I long suspected SDF is CIA honeypot

Enestori said:

The Chinese debt numbers come from a concept the IMF calls "augmented debt." Search

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

for "augmented debt."

Augmented debt "expands the perimeter of the government to include off-budget and LGFV [local government financing vehicle] activity." The numbers are

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.

Augmented debt is a useful concept. However, LGFV debts are investments that yield returns. On the other hand, "normal" government debt is used for things like pensions and military spending - these do not yield any return at all. Building and selling property via LGFVs gives the government money back (even when sold at a loss). Transferring money to pensioners is a total loss for the government (although obviously a societal good). Thus one should not compare LGFV debt with normal government debt.

Finally, "augmented debt" is an estimate. It is a figure made up by the IMF, and thus subject to potential political manipulation.

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The measurement is fine since LGFVs trade with implicit guarantees and thus their debt is China’s debt and the growth in debt levels is not “augmented” debt as much as its growth in CGBs, from China’s tax cutting and spending spree.

Even if you were to add agency debt (FNMA and FHLMC) and U.S. state/municipal debt, it wouldn’t move the needle. But of course, the IMF numbers also don’t count other debt in China - namely, that of the 3 policy banks - China Development Bank, China ExIm, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China - all of which have enormous liabilities with implicit guarantees. None of this changes the fact that CGB debt is growing substantially faster than UST debt; albeit, both are growing for more or less the same reason (political expediency of tax cuts and social spending).

proelite said:

True, but my point is that US government can't force debt consolidation for domestic or foreign debt without getting sued in court.

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Nope. If the U.S. defaults on its debt and/or breaches the contract terms of borrowing, the only allowable mechanism would be for investors to sue in the the U.S. Court for Federal Claims (Ct. Cl.), which appeals
To the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC). This is because the US has sovereign immunity and simply cannot be sued without its prior consent, see Hans v. Louisiana, 134 U.S. 1 (1890); accord. Department of Agriculture Rural Development Rural Housing Service v. Kirtz, 601 U.S. 42 (2024); and the only place where the federal government has allowed itself to be sued in court is in it’s own court, in the heart of the empire, the District of Columbia, with judges appointed to 10 year terms to serve at the pleasure of the president.