Once it became clear the US has lost the war (which btw was evident c. mid-2000's when US was repeatedly asking Taliban for peace deals that the latter was refusing), and the fact that US was having troubles formulating an exit plan, the local actors began milking the US, including the puppet government which was extremely corrupt.
NATO formed the Afghan National Army (ANA) and a police force whom just happened to be composed of either Taliban moles or ghost enlistees that were salaried but did not exist. Once NATO left in 2021, these entities joined Taliban formally.
This war was a major fuckup for US. No real goals, trapped unable to get out, draining hundreds of billions, no real achievement. Massive intelligence failure before and during the war. The former head of Taliban, Mullah Omar, died of natural causes and NATO did not even know until years later. In fact, they could not even get a decent picture of the dude apart from an old black & white photo of a generic man with a beard.
There are cracks in the American confederation to be exploited. Society is polarized, interstate disunity exists and can be exacerbated, some states have separatist movements, racial inequality and class differences are rampant, gang populations are huge, government distrust is high. Play the right cards, right out of their own manual, and they'll be left fighting each other instead of focusing elsewhere on the globe. Then their nuclear arsenal won't pose a serious threat to anyone but themselves. This is what I see in America's forecast.
