That's why they are planning for war. They want to gamble with their lives like in WWII !!
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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That's why they are planning for war. They want to gamble with their lives like in WWII !!
You mean Eastern coast of Taiwan ?
The conflict in Taiwan is the side show. There is plenty of margin for error. I don't know what you are talking about. China is build up a force capable of winning the conflict even if things don't go its way. As such, in majority of cases, it should have plenty of margin for error. In fact, if it can win the initial clash decisively (as we currently expect it to do), it will have wipe out US/Japanese positions within Guam. After which, US military will be fighting a huge uphill battle.
No, they are not. They believe they are defending themselves. The Japanese only has two choices at this point. 1) join US effort 2) remain neutral even in the event China attacks US bases on its soil. In both scenarios, it would be silly for Japan to not build up its defense.
Given the deep ties between US and Japanese government, it would actually be impossible for Japan to break off that alliance. The most it can do is to tell US that it will not participate in a Taiwan scenario, but US forces would still be operating from Okinawa and such.
Overall, US deep state is not operating rationale at the moment. A major loss to China around westpac would mean it will loss its power in Asia Pacific region completely and probably loose its hold on much of the world. Even its NATO allies in Europe would bolt if they see that America cannot defend them in a multi-polar world against China/Russia. Since the outcome of this is such a disaster for America's future. If America does join a conflict, this will be a long drawn out affair unless things get so bad in America (due to losing East Asia products/supply chain) that people take to street for ending the war.
So again, #1 lesson for China to learn here is that it needs to be prepared for a long, drawn out conflict.
Sorry to butt in like this, but I think there is no way for a long, drawn-out conflict with the US in that scenario you mentioned. I agree that it would be because of the internal situation in the US at that time causing the US to stop intervening. However, it would happen much earlier than you think and people there will not just take it to the streets, in the US, to end the war specifically, I think people will take it to the streets to end the US itself in big protests like those for George Floyd or Capitol Hill riots, but just on an even larger scale.
If there were no Chinese products inside the US, there would be a historical and nation-ending level of hyperinflation there due to a smaller supply which would increase prices that much, that's basic economics. The world doesn't have any idea just how dependent US is on Chinese products especially, but other neighboring nations as well. I read somewhere that 50% of imports that go to America pass through the Taiwan Strait, if the PLA cuts that off, it's game over for the US. And China has clear dominance over those shipping lines.
America's whole economic model is based on the consumption of mostly Chinese-made goods, they don't have any industrial capacity, export, and manufacturing sector for a country of that size. Consumption makes the 70% of the US GDP. Their whole model is printing dollars out of thin air, then sharing it with their citizens through government spending, and the citizens use that money to buy Chinese resold goods (both completely from China, or made from Chinese parts). That's because the dollar is currently the world's global and reserve currency, but that's a topic for another time, and that's why they could do that. That's the simplified but truthful version of it.
Not to mention it's already high tension there with all the racial, social, political, ethnic, and ideological divisions in that country. People there don't have even a bit of national unity like in China and people there hate each other. China just needs to shut down Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea, with PLA or their private companies, for a couple of weeks, and the US would disintegrate on its own in riots. BLM, Antifa, far-right, etc... China could take those couple of weeks of not exporting products to the US because China is the most unitary country in world history, while the US could not take, because the US is the most divided empire among all those empires of the past. Maybe I'm wrong and the US will not collapse right away, however, it's certain that they would then stop intervening in China's blockade and special operation around Taiwan.
The Japanese government allowing US forces to operate from Okinawa and other Japanese bases is regarded as a declaration of war against China. Neutrality would be the Japanese government interning all US troops
And seriously, if US bases in Okinawa and elsewhere in Japan are launching attack planes against China, then China will respond in kind.
Then what does the Japanese government do?
Actions by the Japanese military against the Chinese military are a declaration of war.
And if Japan stands aside, then Chinese military forces will successfully attack and destroy US military forces located on Japanese territory, whilst Japan looks on. That is Japan effectively choosing China and the end of the US-Japan alliance
It's not just the deep state which is irrational. This extends to Congress and the Senate as well, where anti-China actions are really popular, no matter if they are irrational. And if anything, this will only get worse over the next 5 years.
On Europe, realistically Russia could only take the small Baltic countries and maybe Finland.
And given the Russian experience in Ukraine, there's no way Russia could even get past Poland.
So at least 90% of the European Union would still be intact and their militaries would be fighting the Russians in Poland.
Even this smaller EU has 3x the population and 5x the GDP of Russia, so we know how this war would end.
The conclusion is that Russia isn't actually a real threat to Europe.
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And yes, if the US lost in the Western Pacific, the future of NATO looks very doubtful.
As for a long-drawn out war, I've previously mused that a US-China war might look like the 20 year period covering the French Revolutionary Wars which then transformed into the Napoleonic Wars. But it is useful to point out some of the key elements:
1. China is the equivalent of a unified Continental Europe which faces no realistic challengers on land
2. Russia is friendly to China instead of hostile to the French Republic/Empire
3. The French lost and at the end, the victors re-established the French monarchy and put a king in charge of France
China taking back Taiwan by force could be either initiated by the U.S. or China. The Taiwanese will play whatever ball the U.S. send them. A U. S. president who makes a conscious decision to provoke a war with China by his actions(either by pushing Taiwan to declare independence or openly support Taiwan independence) must deal with the fallouts of the war. As we saw with Nancy visiting Taiwan, while the U.S. initiated the sequence of action, the Chinese, with its display of naval power and the subsequent events in which the U.S. skirts around this Chinese naval power, ended up damaging U.S. credibility in the region. It takes a great deal of courage and firm control of the U.S. political machinery so as not to lose brownie points to the political opponents. I highly doubt in the coming decade or two, the U.S. will produce a president with enough balls to go down this path.
For the Chinese side, they simply don't need to initiate a war with Taiwan at the moment. Time is on their side. Some people believe that the Chinese military power versus the U.S. will peak in 2027. I don't believe that for a moment. There is no reason why the Chinese won't continue to advance versus the U.S. in military power. Some day, they might have 20 CSGs, all nuclear powered ships with IEP and rail guns on their destroyers. Why pick a fight today? Also after the Ukraine war is over, Russia could be equipped by the Chinese and do China's bidding in wars in some areas. You want to see South Korea and Japan shit their pants once this combined arms from NK, Russia and China do regular patrols in the Sea of Japan.
For the Chinese side, they simply don't need to initiate a war with Taiwan at the moment. Time is on their side. Some people believe that the Chinese military power versus the U.S. will peak in 2027. I don't believe that for a moment. There is no reason why the Chinese won't continue to advance versus the U.S. in military power. Some day, they might have 20 CSGs, all nuclear powered ships with IEP and rail guns on their destroyers. Why pick a fight today? Also after the Ukraine war is over, Russia could be equipped by the Chinese and do China's bidding in wars in some areas. You want to see South Korea and Japan shit their pants once this combined arms from NK, Russia and China do regular patrols in the Sea of Japan.
China is currently growing economically, diplomatically, technologically, and militarily at a historical pace. China is not only overtaking the US, but China is overtaking the whole Western world combined. Therefore, why would China be the one to initiate the war or blockade of Taiwan now, when she could do it a few decades later with overwhelming strength and advantage with almost 100% certainty of success?
It is obvious that the USA is the one initiating Chinese action against Taiwan, not China. Americans look at this that way:
However, in my opinion, the US stands no chance against China, 100km out of their shores, both now, and in 10 and 20 years. Therefore, China will probably answer its provocations soon and be victorious. Block those shipping routes between China and US, in the SCS and Taiwan Strait, for just 2 months, and the US citizens will start killing each other, on the streets, due to enormous hyperinflation. It would affect China's economy too, but China is the most internally unified nation in history, while the US in 2022 is more divided than Africa. US would collapse, China not.
It is obvious that the USA is the one initiating Chinese action against Taiwan, not China. Americans look at this that way:
However, in my opinion, the US stands no chance against China, 100km out of their shores, both now, and in 10 and 20 years. Therefore, China will probably answer its provocations soon and be victorious. Block those shipping routes between China and US, in the SCS and Taiwan Strait, for just 2 months, and the US citizens will start killing each other, on the streets, due to enormous hyperinflation. It would affect China's economy too, but China is the most internally unified nation in history, while the US in 2022 is more divided than Africa. US would collapse, China not.
Can you share a bit more in depth the links and readings where it says a df17 can be built for 2 million?
Price of 2 million per df17 is a complete game changer if its true.
They're uninterceptable and at 2 million price tag, its low cost enough for strategic bombing.
People think it peaks because China doesn't telegraph plans that far ahead while US does.
America is talking NGAD in 2030, China talked nothing but has what could be called a 5.5 gen out there flying in 2022, december. Nothing was known until someone photoed because Chengdu tests stuff in exposed areas. Xi'an doesn't do it and new missiles/drones are usually only revealed through military public events.
I think that even if the budget is low on paper, China is defintely taking America's force structure into account and devising the optimal counters and defenses.
It is even possible that they used accounting tricks to push down the military budget while it is effectively much higher.
Data Point 1
Big shrimp only said DF-17 cost 1/10 of DF-26.
-Vincent
That statement would also be consistent with the 12 million RMB ($2 Million) figure for a DF-17 and the CSBA $20 Million figure for a 4000km IRBM like the DF-26.
-AndrewS
Data Point 2
"As well as the sheer speed with which Beijing is able to acquire new weapons, Holt contends, the Chinese are also operating far more efficiently. “In purchasing power parity, they spend about one dollar to our 20 dollars to get to the same capability,” he told his audience. “We are going to lose if we can’t figure out how to drop the cost and increase the speed in our defense supply chains,” Holt added.
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/china-acquiring-new-weapons-five-times-faster-than-u-s-warns-top-official
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Just another take on these statements on hypersonic weapons by the USAF
The cheapest hypersonic weapon looks like $46 Mn for the Air Force ARRW.
The most expensive hypersonic weapon looks like $89/106 Mn for the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon for the Army/Navy
20x cheaper would mean the Chinese equivalent missile would be in the range of $2-5 Mn.
And my guess is that the equivalent missile is the DF-17 (ground-launched) or the DF-21 (with ground and air-launched variants)
But it's more likely to refer to a $2 Mn figure for the DF-17. And even if it is $5 Mn, it's still a huge bargain compared to US prices, and it's still in the same magnitude of cost with $2 Mn versus $5 Mn.
I also noticed that the CSBA added a standard $2 Mn cost for an anti-ship seeker to any missile
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