And frankly, even if Japan increase budget to $100 billion a year, that's peanuts compared to how much US military increases a year. And as long as Japan procures and maintains expensive US weapons, there is just not a huge bang for the buck. And as we've seen, there are limits in America's industrial might that limits output of major weapon systems.
The situation is actually worse as Japan also buys domestic Japanese weapons which are frequently even more expensive than US equivalents.
Which brings us back to China. It is going through the biggest military buildup in the recent history. And the war in Ukraine have shown that you need to store up a lot of weapons for a high intensity conflict. That's one of the major summaries that Yankeesama heard when he listened in the PLA's lessons from Ukraine conflict. You need to stock up a lot of weapons. So, expect them to really build up their hypersonic weapons, subsonic missiles and PGMs. DF-17s should go well over 1000 if they managed to reduce its cost to $2 million a pop.
I'd say $2 million for a DF-17 is pretty much confirmed. It's the figure from the Chinese podcasts and the USAF have implicitly confirmed this figure with their conference presentation which referenced Chinese hypersonic weapons costs.
So I reckon the DF-17 requirement is a minimum of 1000, as it's the best option to conduct a decisive missile strike against airbases and other key targets in Japan. That opens up Japan to follow on airstrikes etc. In other words, Japan becomes a larger version of Taiwan, whose seaports and airports would be under attack and which can be subject to indefinite blockade.
Note that this DF-17 cost is comparable to the JASSM which the US recently authorised procurement of 3000. So I could easily see the PLARF getting over 2000 for Japan and other contingencies.
The other thing I want to stress is that I finally got a small understanding of the calculus of the neocons. In their view, America cannot loose a major conflict.
Yes.
From a US neocon perspective, if the US wishes to retain its pre-eminent position in the world and exorbitant privilege, it can't show weakness as both challengers and allies will smell that weakness. That will accelerate the tear down or make irrelevant the structures that the US has built up where it is on top.
But the US is suffering a classic case of imperial overstretch now, which is only going to get worse in the coming years.
If Japan comes to the conclusion that a war with China results in Japan suffering a crippling blockade, and that the US would lose a war over Taiwan anyway, then it means the US cannot provide either economic or military security.
So Japan's alliance with the US would actually be actually useless. A rationale Japan should abandon the US alliance and become neutral or move towards China.
That would mean the end of the US system in East Asia overall and a return to the historical norm where China was predominant in the Western Pacific.
If both the US and Japan acknowledge they won't intervene in a Taiwan scenario, then Taiwan's best option is a negotiated settlement that avoids a war in the first place.
And from China's perspective, there's no rush to launch a war as the balances will continue shifting towards China in decades ahead
