I think a lesson for China and Chinese people in the US in general is how the US can be expected to react if hostile conflict were to erupt between China and the US. It's possible that China may be able to use this to accelerate the reversal of its brain drain and attract more talent back, but it's too soon to tell. It would be useful to see what happened to the Germans and Japanese during WW1 and WW2. The impact of WW2 on the Japanese American population was well known, but the German American population didn't get off lightly either. If the CPC is hoping to rely on strong trade connections and personal connections with Americans to maintain a stable relationship they may want to reconsider, as they are unlikely to be able to help much.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
- Start date
- Status
Too small to fire accurately. You’d need a minimum of 35mm/40mm grenade launcher
there is still speed difference going to battlefield. Attack chopper loaded speed i dont think can exceed 200km/hr with range severely constrained. this CAS aircraft are much faster and they do carry sufficient protection suite now.. These are extensively used in Syria /Irak and Ukraine is another example against small groups spread out or urban environment. CAS aircraft also can carry bigger PGM with upto 10 hard points for greater flexibility in weopons per sortie.
this old translation where the fighter is called gunship that can work with UAV.
i will rate them more reliable for high sorties rate than some thing like F-16 where even bird ingestion can drop them when airfield is not very developed. If you look at TB-2 drones. they were used in Syria very near to Turkish border likely supported by Turkish AEW. similar case with Ukraine. the drones are used inside Ukraine. TB-2 may not be stealthy drone but it is simply unable to cross even Belarus border . They just too slow for deep strike and out of area operations. CAS aircraft with pilot has much higher safety against communication disruption.
My original post has no intention of implying anything about whether Taiwanese combatants are cowards or not. I am simply saying that as a society as a whole, Taiwan is far less used to war and hardship than any other Asian societies neighboring it. And you can see the trend and atmosphere for the prospect and concept of Taiwanese resistance now is more and more leaning towards a type of dragged on urban guerrilla warfare that aimed at making the actually land conquest of the island costly, painful and lengthy for the PLA. I am simply saying that such a concept is NOT going to work with Taiwan society.
This whole fuzz about Javelin is movie logic, not real war. If Javelins alone can defeat armies, nobody will be making tanks anymore. Information-era warfare ruled out all one-pony-trick of small arms and single-soldier weapon on single targets. Once you have an abondance of stand off surveillance equipment able to search and see every inch of the battlefield, and precision guided munitions from land and air, it will be a one-sided slaughter.
If they are congregated to one spot with many tens of soldiers, one cluster bomb will make them evaporate, from beyond the range of their many many Javelins and Stingers.
If they disperse into small groups of 3 to 5, then each group will only be able to move with limited rounds of Javelins and Stingers. Then swarms of small and cheap drones with small 5-25 kg areal bombs and/or machine guns will kill them off.
Let along large drones carrying a swarm of small PGMS hovering outside of the range of Stingers, with their sensor locking searching for combatants on the ground, and ready to throw those PGMS at them as soon as they are discovered.
There is an vastly imbalanced comparisons of resources and even know-hows at the disposal of both sides. This is the main difference between a possible Mainland-Taiwan conflict, compare to that of Ukraine-Russia conflict.
In fact, tactically speaking, PLA convoys of land vehicles can even be used as a bait to move in to fighting grounds, in order to lure out these brave Javelin-equipped/Stinger equipped combatants, with a ocean of drones hovering far above to throw loads and loads of bombs at them.
Now the biggest problem to a unification war is really the economic/financial war between the US-led West and China, on top of the hot war. Right now, the people in the West who are interested in Taiwan/Mainland issue, is increasing confident in the idea that they don't even need to commit their forces in direct military confrontation with the PLA, and rather resort to econ/financial war instead.
In this case, they will happily see Taiwan turned into a "80s Afghanistan" for China, in which it will drain Chinese military and other resources in creating a conflict zone which East Asia, which will drive global capital out of Asia and back into the West, all the while the West wage economic war on China. This is the real concept.
This is why, in case of Taiwan, the PLA will increasingly realize that, in a realistic unification war, their main goal will NOT be how well they can conquer the island, but rather how fast they can absolutely destroy the effective fighting forces on Taiwan. Once that backbone of resistance is broken, the PLA will be able to allocate their resources in fighting the economic war with the Collective West.
The island will then just be more of 维稳治安战 (stability/public-security war), with horde after horde of militia organized and commanded by the PAP moving into the island, as well as civilians moving out of the battered island.
There will be no stalemate like Ukraine, it will be annihilation of the separatist's organizational structure, or complete capitulation and surrender of the separatists' entire leadership structure.
Speed to the battlefield is not really relevant. You would have to plan for when helicopters and aircraft are available. Plus helicopters would be expected to operate from local bases.
The way I see things, you could use a few helicopters and high-altitude manned aircraft.
But these would be combined with large numbers of smaller UAVs and UCAVs.
Until Mi24 level UAV's come out, they will always have a place in the battlefield. The successful Russian air assault on the Hostomel Airfield and the footage of KA-50 helicopters hunting for the enemy show how versitile they are.
i'm gonna play devil's advocate and say tw's best chance is to drag the invasion out to as long as humanly possible in order to garner as much international attention/support as possible, just like what Ukraine is doing to russia at the moment.
hand out atgms/manpads to small teams and civilians and deploy in every single taller than 5 stories buildings in all of the cities.
either make it so hostile to the PLA ground forces that they can't move one inch into any city without losing manned/unmanned armored units, or force their hand into razing every single building to the ground in order to eliminate one threat, which will ensure the absolute long lasting hatred of the locals toward PLA/china for generations to come, making conquering tw as costly as possible.
even if PLA has hordes of drones and smart munitions, clearing each building is going to be extremely time consuming and costly, especially if they want to "preserve" the local infrastructure. and if they decide to categorically destroy all potential buildings of threat, then they'll be committing an even greater atrocity.
but like previous posters said, this heavily depend on the taiwanese will to fight when they clearly know it's just delaying the inevitable by sacrifice. there's no realistic scenario where they can drive the PLA back into the ocean, but they can make it hurt so much that it forever hamper China's economic/political advances.
hand out atgms/manpads to small teams and civilians and deploy in every single taller than 5 stories buildings in all of the cities.
either make it so hostile to the PLA ground forces that they can't move one inch into any city without losing manned/unmanned armored units, or force their hand into razing every single building to the ground in order to eliminate one threat, which will ensure the absolute long lasting hatred of the locals toward PLA/china for generations to come, making conquering tw as costly as possible.
even if PLA has hordes of drones and smart munitions, clearing each building is going to be extremely time consuming and costly, especially if they want to "preserve" the local infrastructure. and if they decide to categorically destroy all potential buildings of threat, then they'll be committing an even greater atrocity.
but like previous posters said, this heavily depend on the taiwanese will to fight when they clearly know it's just delaying the inevitable by sacrifice. there's no realistic scenario where they can drive the PLA back into the ocean, but they can make it hurt so much that it forever hamper China's economic/political advances.
You may be right but no planner can bet on the opposing side making mistakes or not fighting. The assumption of no resolve on the opposing side is what lead to Russia's current situation in Ukraine. It is also the reason for US failures in Vietnam and Afghanistan. It is also how Imperial Japan justified attacking the USA.
China can not bet on Taiwanese surrendering or even being low in morale. China must assume Taiwan will fight until it loses the capability to do so. That is the only way to maximize the chance of success.
- Status