solarz
Brigadier
#2 makes so much sense it would be illogical if it *wasn't* true.
All you have to do is paint the drone in Ukrainian colors, and who's going to be able to tell where it came from?
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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#2 makes so much sense it would be illogical if it *wasn't* true.
All you have to do is paint the drone in Ukrainian colors, and who's going to be able to tell where it came from?
Stop giving Russian army excuses. If the drones are remote piloted from outside of Ukraine, then it should be even easier for Russian EW system to jam communications and make them inoperable. Similarly, if PLA cannot jam up Taiwan air defense and communications after establishing air dominance, that would be its own fault.
Why hasn't Russian Air Force destroyed all the aircraft while they are on the ground? Because they are not making enough sorties. If you are PLA invading Taiwan, you have to expect Taiwan will get help externally. It's up to you as the stronger military to stop all of that.
I can bet you the Chinese military is watching what's happening in Ukraine very carefully, documenting things Russia didn't do and figuring out where PLA need to improve. And that's the point of this thread also. Let's figure out where China needs to improve. It's clearly not ready at the moment to accomplish a quick takeover of Taiwan.
This is what I mean by Russia is failing to account for all levels of foreign interference. Not an excuse, an objective analysis.
They accounted for no interference. That would be their ideal situation.
They accounted for massive direct intervention. They readied their strategic forces for that.
They did not account for this sort of plausible deniability foreign intervention that they cannot stop without a massive escalation.
This is a gap in their escalation ladder: they prepared only for 2 extremes and not the moderate case.
For tanks and AFVs:
Missile approach warning systems, top armor in form of HEAT specific ERA, Laser and Radar warning receivers and active defense systems are musts for modern AFVs. Any AFV without these is not suitable for front-line roles in the era of drones and top-attack missiles.
Missile approach warning systems, top armor in form of HEAT specific ERA, Laser and Radar warning receivers and active defense systems are musts for modern AFVs. Any AFV without these is not suitable for front-line roles in the era of drones and top-attack missiles.
I think 1) and 2) should not be a big problem. China gained some knowledge of the data link from the US military in the 1980s, and completed the implementation of the army around 2013. China's main strategic pressure is the southeast. The equipment deployed here should be comparatively advanced, or equipment that has already been networked. In fact, I believe that many of the problems of the Russian military in military operations come from the lack of sufficient coordination. The PLA may be inexperienced, but it can also be achieved through more training makes up for this.
I think the biggest shortfall between China and Russia is precisely the opposite. Russia's shortfall comes from the lack of coordination capabilities brought by technology, while China's shortfall comes from the lack of support from the target area. In fact, before China hosted the 2008 Olympics, people's livelihood in Taiwan were generally better than in mainland China; after that, China made rapid progress with the influx of investment, while Taiwan steadily lost its competitiveness. Hatred of the wealthy is a common mentality, especially when this man was poorer than you ten years ago.
Before the 1980s, the people in Taiwan were KMT troops who had been defeated and their descendants. The two sides of the strait regarded each other as the enemy of rebellion, but they never thought of independence. In this case, both sides will be more apt to admit their own failures. With the death of this group of people and the intervention of the Americans, they no longer think that the mainland is the enemy of the rebellion, it is another country, which is actually effortless to create a gap in identity. With the help of the Americans, it is easy to create strong hostility. This will bring endless trouble in the course of the war. Particularly students and young people, people are readily incited at this stage. They are likely to be willing to sacrifice themselves to damage infrastructure or other important facilities, or even use their bodies to block bullets that would not have been fired.
In fact, it is tough for the mainland to create more recognition for these people, which is why China's ideological battle is at a disadvantage. Unlike the West, China has missed the last great plunder that does not require to follow any rules. The West has plundered for a hundred years, and China has been plundered for nearly a hundred years. Ordinary people are not willing to research who is the real democracy or what liberty, but only care about how much money they have. With such advantages, the West is easy to blame their superior life because of some political factors rather than plundering others, or being on a gigantic island, the enemy cannot attack the mainland. And this is also a classic example of the Matthew effect, which can easily create the zeal of the convert.
Again, please keep political commentary out of this. There is a Taiwan thread for that already. What is wrong with people? Can we just have a thread of military strategy talk without talking about which country you hate?
Well, I think military occupation also includes effective control of areas on the move. It is impossible for the military to halt and give everyone a room, and this is the biggest shortcoming of China. The overly restrained behavior of the Russian army has already caused them trouble, and the PLA will only face more trouble. But the Chinese also like to focus on comments, and it is difficult to evaluate whether they will become ruthless through the experience of the Russian army.
Your optimism of mass air drops is unrealistic, for a few reasons:
1. The PLA just doesn't have that many strategic and transport aircraft to carry out such drops.
2. Even after the PLA has established air superiority and conducted a SEAD/DEAD campaign, the remaining air defenses of the ROC military will likely still be sufficient to threaten the vulnerable transport aircraft conducting the drops. It will take a long time to carry out the SEAD/DEAD mission to a degree where the airspace is safe for large scale airborne drops.
3. Even if it is safe from the air defense pov to carry out large airdrops, the vulnerability of airborne forces to being surrounded by the enemy and destroyed is very high if you do not have massive ISR and firepower superiority to suppress and annihilate any enemy forces that will move against them. This is especially important in high density population territories like the island of Taiwan.
Your idea about simply using merchant ships to supplement sealift capabilities is also premature. Merchant ships require either a permanent port or a temporary port to be established. Doing so requires you to properly secure a beachhead, which requires a large number of amphibious assault forces (which do not require a port) to be landed and all of the enabling forces to make it a success -- which is very complex and not easy to achieve.
I'm writing up a post summarizing my own thoughts on the lessons of the Ukraine war so far, and one of the takeaways is that conducting airborne drops and even helicopter air assaults against a semblance of a conventional military is very high risk.
And in general war optimism and hand waving away certain complex operations as if they are going to be guaranteed successes, is very very dangerous.
Not enough intel yet. Unless you have the PLA's analysis & assessment reports to share.
The only thing we know for sure right now, is that whichever side has more videos is always 'winning,' according to Twitter.
But then again, even if you had all the videos, FOX's 'greatest hits' playlist is very selective, so...
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