Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

I think events like this instigated by enemies like the US force other nations to pick sides; China has a lot more levers and power than Russia so we might see more nations adopt a neutral stance as opposed to outright betrayal (India), Germany and Japan which Russia and myself included assumed would be neutral actually came out to re-hash the 1930s all over again.

Looking at the US stance towards China and it's definitely about forcing nations to choose between China and the US whereas China works with everyone.

No doubt we will cut their internet connections and do a much better SEAD job, but still , CCP has its limits, we will face the same scenario as Russians do ,too much collateral damage cannot be accepted, hence tied hands, heavy artillery and bombardment will only be used against their defense force on the beach and in the military base , street fighting will still be a bloodbath if they are determined as Ukrainians, and we shouldn’t rule out that possibility, in fact I think street fighting is inevitable, ATGMs like javelin would be as lethal as it could be in such scenarios.
And I prefer using swarm drones to kill them first than put a APS like iron fist or trophy on every tank for they will cause damage to GIs around them and are much more expensive

Karlin has some good points; since it's apparnet that the US will- via its allies in korea and japan and australia- try to make any chinese op in taiwan difficult, why shouldn't the PLA turn any taiwan reunification op into a war to expel the US from east Asia much as Putin's stated demands were for NATO to exit eastern europe and pull back to pre 1990s borders?

People in Taiwan are considered as Chinese, keep that in mind, no matter how much hatred there is against them, and Taiwan, when it’s conquered, will not be considered as a colony or military base, we can’t just destroy their infrastructures, which makes this much harder.
I’m quiet pessimistic, the time has yet to come, maybe in 5 years , we are certainly not ready, at all

Vatt’ghern said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498119654908309505

Karlin has some good points; since it's apparnet that the US will- via its allies in korea and japan and australia- try to make any chinese op in taiwan difficult, why shouldn't the PLA turn any taiwan reunification op into a war to expel the US from east Asia much as Putin's stated demands were for NATO to exit eastern europe and pull back to pre 1990s borders?

Click to expand...

The only reason this might be a bad idea is the chance of the US, Japan, and Australia just turning their back on Taiwan (using excuses like "we have no treaty obligation to defend them", as Biden did), thereby averting a wider war.

Taiwan won't be like Ukraine even with ISR support from foreign countries; they can't get weapons and supplies in once Taiwan is surrounded so eventually it will fall. The PLA offensive will also not be as anemic as the Russian one was, and thus the conflict should go smoothly.

The threat of invasion for many Taiwanese is still theoretical in their minds.
Unless someone does stupid things and seizes a few islands and nothing else. It'll remain that way.

Incremental pressure isn't risk free, looking at the Russian experience.

Vatt’ghern said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498119654908309505

Karlin has some good points; since it's apparnet that the US will- via its allies in korea and japan and australia- try to make any chinese op in taiwan difficult, why shouldn't the PLA turn any taiwan reunification op into a war to expel the US from east Asia much as Putin's stated demands were for NATO to exit eastern europe and pull back to pre 1990s borders?

Click to expand...

I could see a simultaneous Korea and taiwan conflict happening since Korea is an "easier" theater, being connected by land and in range of artillery, not to mention bulk of forces will be from KPA.

But Japan and Australia is a whole other scenario. They're here to stay as US colonies unless their people rise up.

SunlitZelkova said:

The only reason this might be a bad idea is the chance of the US, Japan, and Australia just turning their back on Taiwan (using excuses like "we have no treaty obligation to defend them", as Biden did), thereby averting a wider war.

Taiwan won't be like Ukraine even with ISR support from foreign countries; they can't get weapons and supplies in once Taiwan is surrounded so eventually it will fall. The PLA offensive will also not be as anemic as the Russian one was, and thus the conflict should go smoothly.

Click to expand...

We will win, but as a wise man once said “at what cost?”

sndef888 said:

I could see a simultaneous Korea and taiwan conflict happening since Korea is an "easier" theater, being connected by land and in range of artillery, not to mention bulk of forces will be from KPA.

But Japan and Australia is a whole other scenario. They're here to stay as US colonies unless their people rise up.

Click to expand...

Korea is not an easier front. South Korea has a heck ton of tanks and artilleries and has a decent airforce. China didn't pay much attention to upgrading its armor in recent years, it wouldn't be so ideal to go up against SK's land forces.

People, please keep nationalistic rants off this thread and stick with just what they can do tactically and what lessons are to be learnt.

People, please keep Korea, US, Japan and Australia off this thread? Is it that difficult? This is purely about what lessons China can learn in an opposed landing.

Mods can we please delete some of the recent posts that should be in the general Taiwan or Ukraine thread?