Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Broccoli

Senior Member
If things go wrong China loses everything and in best case scenario they get an island where many people hate them and China's economy get's pummeled.

I don't see what's the logical point in whole Taiwan invasion, and I feel same way about Putin's Ukraine war... war based on sentimentalism and lack of common sense, like those weirdly shaped Americans who shot a guy because they were arguing about dirty mattress.
 

ecaedus

New Member
Registered Member
China can offer to take the military option off the table if Taiwan agrees formally never to declare independence and participates in international organizations as Chinese Taipei.
there's no version of a deal that either side could make, that the other side would accept.

PRC's "guarantees" mean diddly squat to tw and vice versa. the only language both side understand moving forward is violence.

it all comes down to if the US has the resolve to intervene.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
there's no version of a deal that either side could make, that the other side would accept.

PRC's "guarantees" mean diddly squat to tw and vice versa. the only language both side understand moving forward is violence.

it all comes down to if the US has the resolve to intervene.

That is a choice to turn towards violence, it is not some law of human nature. People have the ability to act differently than what they say if they just use their brains and realize how costly a war would be. That includes the United States, which would suffer immense long-term damage in a war with China and likely never fully recover.
 

ecaedus

New Member
Registered Member
If things go wrong China loses everything

yeah looking at how China had nothing from 1949 to 1979, that shouldn't be too much of a problem. as long as CCP can keep the people in check.

and in best case scenario they get an island where many people hate them

again, CCP is very well versed in the "art" of control, nothing 30 years of martial law declared on tw couldn't fix.

and China's economy get's pummeled.

depends on how fast the world can pivot away from china in terms of mass manufacturing. nothing china can do right now that can't be replaced by enough investments in other countries, china also currently does not have a technological superiority hold on the rest of the world like the US does. but if given enough time, who knows. also, is the west willing to uproot and go elsewhere for the most stable and cost effective manufacturer for the last 30 years?
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The Russians did try to send in timely reinforcements. In war, sometimes things just don't go as expected.

I think the lesson here is the strengths and limitations of using airborne assault to take objectives behind enemy lines. The strengths are speed and surprise, especially done simultaneously against a large number of targets. Everyone was surprised by the speed of Russian advance in the first day. The limitation is that you need to back them up with reinforcements, and this can be tricky if the small force you sent in was not able to secure their objective. This is where close air support and drones would shine.

The other lesson is that when trying to capture airports, don't expect to be able to send in reinforcements using that airport. The Russians had to divert their initial reinforcements sent in on IL-76s because the runway was damaged (according to reports). They might have had more success it they just kept ferrying in more men via helicopter.

I wouldn't be surprised if the PLA started putting more focus on airborne assaults from now on.
Well looks like my last post glitched for some reason.

Just wanted to further expand a bit on what was lost that kinda addresses some of the points here.

I think there are two levels that need to be considered separately when evaluating the VDV airport assault and not conflict them and draw the wrong conclusions.

Strategically, the op was essentially a suicide mission, and while I understood the necessity, I still lament the sacrifice.

Tactically, it was beautifully executed and will no doubt become a textbook model for air assault forces the world over and frankly is a bit of a watershed moment as it demonstrates beyond doubt the ability for air Calvary to break through modern integrated air defences and thick MANPAD coverage through speed, audacity and surprise.

Where I think/hope Chinese air calv tactics will diverge from the ones employed by the VDV is how they plan to support air assault forces after they have achieved breakthrough and secured their objectives.

The Russians basically left their airborne to fend for themselves after they landed because they didn’t have the air assets needed to adequately support their troops and make the most of the advantageous terrain the airport offered.

The Chinese, OTOH, have already invested heavily in the core technologies and systems needed to turn such toeholds into deathchokes. These are precision air power modelled after US and NATO forces, and massive use of drones, especially transport drones and swarm attack drones more so than your traditional UCAVs.

The biggest problem and limitation faced by air assault forces is logistics and firepower.

Trying to fly large conventional transports into airports secured by air calv is plainly never going to work. Sending in transport drones would. These can be fixed wing Cessna class cheap and cheerful logistic drones and quadcopter STOVL drones like what China already uses.

If you can keep your air assault troopers provisioned with munitions and food, and support them with precision air power, they can be nearly impossible to shift from airports and there won’t be an airport left even if you do managed to take them out eventually. Which will be the least of the price paid to be frank.

So I think there is a very good chance we will see a massive increase in PLA investments in military helicopters as a result of this, maybe even big orders for Ka52s and the like; while correspondingly, I see the PLA potentially scaling back its paratroopers and converting to them to helicopter assault and general rapid reaction forces instead of conventional air assault roles. Especially if rumours of Il76s full of VSV getting shot down turns out to be true. Large transports are just too vulnerable to be used in D-Day style paratroopers drop ops these days.
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
Their hatred of China is far, far, far worse than hatred of Russia. Because Russians are white, at the very least they see them as fellow human beings. Literally a week ago Tucker Carlson was making excuses for Russia, saying we should hate China instead. So if they will do everything short of war to Russia, there is a huge chance they would do war itself for China. But I agree with you on the second-to-last sentence.

True they hate China more. But Taiwanese are not blonde haired people with blue eyes.

China just have to wait. Taiwanese demographics are collapsing, and all Taiwan's allies demand a piece of Taiwan's semiconductor pie. Wait for 20 years and the West will not be seriously considering a war.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
there's no version of a deal that either side could make, that the other side would accept.

PRC's "guarantees" mean diddly squat to tw and vice versa. the only language both side understand moving forward is violence.

it all comes down to if the US has the resolve to intervene.
The resolve required is increasing exponentially by the day.

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ecaedus

New Member
Registered Member
Well looks like my last post glitched for some reason.

Just wanted to further expand a bit on what was lost that kinda addresses some of the points here.

I think there are two levels that need to be considered separately when evaluating the VDV airport assault and not conflict them and draw the wrong conclusions.

Strategically, the op was essentially a suicide mission, and while I understood the necessity, I still lament the sacrifice.

Tactically, it was beautifully executed and will no doubt become a textbook model for air assault forces the world over and frankly is a bit of a watershed moment as it demonstrates beyond doubt the ability for air Calvary to break through modern integrated air defences and thick MANPAD coverage through speed, audacity and surprise.

Where I think/hope Chinese air calv tactics will diverge from the ones employed by the VDV is how they plan to support air assault forces after they have achieved breakthrough and secured their objectives.

The Russians basically left their airborne to fend for themselves after they landed because they didn’t have the air assets needed to adequately support their troops and make the most of the advantageous terrain the airport offered.

The Chinese, OTOH, have already invested heavily in the core technologies and systems needed to turn such toeholds into deathchokes. These are precision air power modelled after US and NATO forces, and massive use of drones, especially transport drones and swarm attack drones more so than your traditional UCAVs.

The biggest problem and limitation faced by air assault forces is logistics and firepower.

Trying to fly large conventional transports into airports secured by air calv is plainly never going to work. Sending in transport drones would. These can be fixed wing Cessna class cheap and cheerful logistic drones and quadcopter STOVL drones like what China already uses.

If you can keep your air assault troopers provisioned with munitions and food, and support them with precision air power, they can be nearly impossible to shift from airports and there won’t be an airport left even if you do managed to take them out eventually. Which will be the least of the price paid to be frank.

So I think there is a very good chance we will see a massive increase in PLA investments in military helicopters as a result of this, maybe even big orders for Ka52s and the like; while correspondingly, I see the PLA potentially scaling back its paratroopers and converting to them to helicopter assault and general rapid reaction forces instead of conventional air assault roles. Especially if rumours of Il76s full of VSV getting shot down turns out to be true. Large transports are just too vulnerable to be used in D-Day style paratroopers drop ops these days.

do you see these vertical attack squads getting deployed right after the 1st wave PGM strike, before establishing complete air dominance or spearhead amphibious landings? i think i see them getting deployed preferably after major SAM sites have been shut down, and in coordination with amphibious landings, give the defenders more things to worry about and also the two groups can cover and support eachother.

also, i think it's critical to make sure these vertical attack squads are "mobilized", "mechanized" and "armored" so as not to get taken out so easily. not sure if the PLAAF has enough heavy transport helicopters to accomplish this. i agree huge POs have to be made to satisfy this need.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
depends on how fast the world can pivot away from china in terms of mass manufacturing. nothing china can do right now that can't be replaced by enough investments in other countries, china also currently does not have a technological superiority hold on the rest of the world like the US does. but if given enough time, who knows. also, is the west willing to uproot and go elsewhere for the most stable and cost effective manufacturer for the last 30 years?
Are you a subject matter expert in manufacturing, especially in telecom, semiconductor or chemical sectors? Do you have proof of these statements?

The "enough investment in other countries" far exceeds the cost for China to gain the few missing tech pieces that it lacks. We're talking trillions. And that's with an intact supply chain and assuming existing rules on IP transfers.

If IP still holds then Huawei or ZTE can refuse to license thousands of core patents for 5G and semiconductor design.

If IP doen't hold then lol good luck collecting the billions of licensing fees that China currently pays on IP.

China also has trillions in accumulated physical FDI that can't move.
 

ecaedus

New Member
Registered Member
Are you a subject matter expert in manufacturing, especially in telecom, semiconductor or chemical sectors? Do you have proof of these statements?

The "enough investment in other countries" far exceeds the cost for China to gain the few missing tech pieces that it lacks. We're talking trillions. And that's with an intact supply chain and assuming existing rules on IP transfers.

If IP still holds then Huawei or ZTE can refuse to license thousands of core patents for 5G and semiconductor design.

If IP doen't hold then lol good luck collecting the billions of licensing fees that China currently pays on IP.

China also has trillions in accumulated physical FDI that can't move.
nope, just sprouting my opinions away that's all. i don't think it takes an expert to figure out right now china is not "leading" in semiconductor or any extremely high tech industries.

with enough time and determination all the "hurdles" of "decoupling" can be overcome, it's just a matter of how united can the west be, and how thorough they want the decoupling to be. obviously it's in china's best interest to make the cost of decoupling as high as possible so as to delay it from happening.
 
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