Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

FairAndUnbiased said:

China has 300+ new silos that finished construction so if they want to keep believing their old numbers they can try it and see what happens.

And actually military buildups do change the balance of power. Not everyone can equally afford a military buildup and not all spending is equally effective.

Whether Taiwan is a minor regional conflict or WW3 isn't up to China. If they can blackmail China over Taiwan they can use the same blackmail for anything they want. What if they said China must limit it's GDP per capita to no more than the world average or it risks WW3 because China is using too many resources and causing global warming? The correct conclusion to draw is to strengthen yourself such that WW3 blackmail isn't a credible threat because you'll hurt them so bad no gain is worth it.

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Slippery slope argument.

According to this kind of reasoning, it could be used to override any objection of the nature "this will cause WW3/nuclear war" even though that is a very valid objection.

ecaedus said:

looking at the absolutely abysmal performance/strategy of the VDV being sent to capture local airfield outside of Kyiv (also maybe to "capture" UKR leadership?), and the fact that they even lost a Maj. Gen while doing it, i think it's safe to say the PLA shouldn't try any massive vertical landing assault unless there are established and secured beach heads for further ground reinforcements.

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As far as I understand, general wasn't lost there. That was a ~batallion raid with very high risk, not something for army vice-commanders to be in.

Furthermore, failure of Hostomel operation is assumed based on huge reported helicopter losses(1) and multiple Ukrainian reports that the airfield was overrun(2). Both don't appear to be right.
Second thing is definetely wrong - we have civilian video with Russians still there on the next morning (and relaxed enough to manage civilian traffic at that). The first one... reports of >10 destroyed helicopters haven't been confirmed for more than a week - something would've surfaced for sure. We only saw 2 confirmed escort helicopters, and probably a single 1 ground attack plane(su-25sm) shot down in that operation, with 2 pilots KIA(mi-24p). If there is no confirmation of more than a dozen of wrecks in a highly urbanized terrain with cameramen looking for every possible media victory - chances of it are nil.
Thus current confirmed result is that all Russian transport helicopters managed to reach the landing zone, landed the troops, and then pulled out.

I'd argue it was one of things that weren't bad. Significant material losses (3 aircraft) - but they probably also ensured that Ru army managed to pull through Pripyat' marshes in the first place. It's one thing when that huge convoy is sitting outside of Kiev within strike distance, it would've been another thing completely if it'd be stopped on a single available highway in marshy terrain near the border.
Basically a recipe for a Teutoburg forest disaster.

In the end, VDV clearly managed to hold their ground till reinforcements reached them, and managed to gather enough attention for main column to reach far enough down south. (VDV reinforcements, though, did suffer ambushes on the way)

And no, I just don't believe anyone ever seriously intended to fly in il-76s right into an s-300 bubble with IIRC full 5 brigades around Kiev, and that's without levies.

gadgetcool5 said:

IMO the lesson is that a serious military option is off the table for Taiwan. Sometimes the truth is hard to accept. Ukraine had 8 years to prepare for war with Russia and it did a very good job. Taiwan has had 25+ years to prepare if we count starting from the time the idea Taiwan independence started to gain traction and China responded with the 1st Taiwan strait crisis.

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It doesn't work this way, this is a human organization, not a strategy game.
Yes, Ukraine under existential threat improved.
Russian army, on the other hand, apparently regressed organizationally - despite all the spending (orders more than Ukraine, actually) and much better visible material state. Regressed despite being right in front of improving enemy, and having all possible indicators of him improving(donbass militias fought for the same 8 years).
7 years of pounding largely defenseless Syrian rebels didn't help either - it was far away, only aerospace forces and special forces really got a lot of new knowledge in this campaign.

We're talking about human organizations - and the capability of a human organization lacking major fighting experience for 70 years is...up to debate. There was more than enough time for peacetime career officers to build their dynasties. Almost 10 times more than Russians had since 2014.

Bltizo said:

And in terms of strategic planning, of course it will just naturally result in a requirement to make the US and Taiwan understand that the political status of Taiwan is something that the Chinese government is willing to take as much of Taiwan and the rest of the world to hell over, if it came to military action.

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I know that this isn't the venue for memes, but I have to do it just this once:

gadgetcool5 said:

Slippery slope argument.

According to this kind of reasoning, it could be used to override any objection of the nature "this will cause WW3/nuclear war" even though that is a very valid objection.

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Nope because China isn't the one threatening an escalation of a minor regional conflict into WW3. The moral burden falls on the escalating side and China has every right to resist the escalation including by escalating to deescalate.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Nope because China isn't the one threatening an escalation of a minor regional conflict into WW3. The more burden falls on the escalating side and China has every right to resist the escalation including by escalating to deescalate.

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In this case, both sides would be escalating. China would escalate by starting the war. That is a very big step, to instigate. Then the West would escalate. And then so on and so on. During war, as people become more inhumane, mass deaths becomes more and more normal. Ghoulish thought.

gadgetcool5 said:

IMO the lesson is that a serious military option is off the table for Taiwan. Sometimes the truth is hard to accept. Ukraine had 8 years to prepare for war with Russia and it did a very good job. Taiwan has had 25+ years to prepare if we count starting from the time the idea Taiwan independence started to gain traction and China responded with the 1st Taiwan strait crisis.

The entire developed world (and most of the rest)would unite against China and completely cut off China, sending its economy into a tailspin. And that's the best case scenario. It's possible that NATO would intervene directly because they are far more Sinophobic than Russophobic, plus they are less scared of China's 200+ nukes than Russia's thousands of them. And then it would be WWIII.

Since the one child era many Chinese parents have only had one son, so if he died in combat their entire lives would be destroyed.

Really, that is the only lesson worth taking from this.

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I actually have the exact opposite take. I used to think maybe American might get involved military in Taiwan, but now I am almost certain that it won't. Any sanctions imposed will be designed to minimize impact to the western economy. it will be a set back to major chinese corporation, but that's it. Keep in mind, I really do believe military option is the worst possible outcome for both China and Taiwan. The moment first shot is fired, American already won, why risk anything else.

optionsss said:

I actually the exact opposite take. I used to think maybe American might get involved military in Taiwan, but now I am almost certain that it won't. Any sanctions imposed will be designed to minimize impact to the western economy. it will be a set back to major chinese corporation, but that's it. Keep in mind, I really do believe military option is the worst possible outcome for both China and Taiwan. The moment first shot is fired, American already won, why risk anything else.

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Their hatred of China is far, far, far worse than hatred of Russia. Because Russians are white, at the very least they see them as fellow human beings. Literally a week ago Tucker Carlson was making excuses for Russia, saying we should hate China instead. So if they will do everything short of war to Russia, there is a huge chance they would do war itself for China. But I agree with you on the second-to-last sentence.

gadgetcool5 said:

In this case, both sides would be escalating. China would escalate by starting the war. That is a very big step, to instigate. Then the West would escalate. And then so on and so on. During war, as people become more inhumane, mass deaths becomes more and more normal. Ghoulish thought.

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It wouldn't be instigating though. Technically the ROC occupies the same legal status as the Taliban or ISIS - an unrecognized entity that is armed and exercises authority over a region. In addition the Chinese Civil War hasn't ended, it's merely a ceasefire.

Taliban issued it's own currency, recruited a military, had popular support and even negotiated diplomatically with major nations including the US and China. So according to the US itself none of these are the distinguishing features of a state, only recognition is. Thanks!

So legally speaking China has the same right to resist ROC forces occupation of Chinese land, as the Afghan National Government had to resist the Taliban. And just as aiding the Taliban would be seen as an escalation, while resisting the Taliban would not be...

gadgetcool5 said:

Their hatred of China is far, far, far worse than hatred of Russia. Because Russians are white, at the very least they see them as fellow human beings. Literally a week ago Tucker Carlson was making excuses for Russia, saying we should hate China instead. So if they will do everything short of war to Russia, there is a huge chance they would do war itself for China. But I agree with you on the second-to-last sentence.

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Then it pays for China to be prepared for the eventuality. Concession doesn't work. Just look at the trade war. When China was ready to make concessions in 2018 it only proved to the Trump admin that the Chinese are "weak" so they tore up the old deal and forced further concessions.

gadgetcool5 said:

In this case, both sides would be escalating. China would escalate by starting the war. That is a very big step, to instigate. Then the West would escalate. And then so on and so on. During war, as people become more inhumane, mass deaths becomes more and more normal. Ghoulish thought.

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The 'best' choice for China and Chinese people is to pretend nothing changes to maintain economic gains in every single scenario.
Even if Taiwan works towards getting a formal defense treaty with the US, hosts US tripwire forces or even a nuclear program.

Does that sound realistic though?
If one side lacks resolve, or announces they have no resolve, such a thing will happen by next week.

I laugh at all the times the US side talks about resolve, but they have a point.