Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

FIDEL de Chacal said:

In one sense yes , the PLA would not need to land a large force of troops at first.

The PRC has the means to conduct a blockade but a naval/aerial blockade only works in theory if other nation states adhere to the blockade and do not interfere. In other words if one of the objectives of the PRC is to isolate the Island of Taiwan while at the same time deter "outsiders" from butting in. An naval/aerial blockade might have the opposite effect and draw "outsiders" into the affair(with No PLA troops on the Island).

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Biscuits said:

In the event of a preemptive strike to counter foreign plans to initiate a special operation against China, soldiers on the ground must happen because it is by far the best way to deter and halt enemies coming in from the east direction by sea and air.

Having large concentrations of troops on the island means that even if China is attacked by an outsider, they must sufficiently degrade the PLA troops on Taiwan in order to even make landfall.

Once there are hundreds of thousands PLA on the island, they can rapidly remake cities on Taiwan into fortresses, they can also deploy anti ship missiles to prevent enemy amphibious assaults.

Only an air and naval presence is sufficient against the rebel army alone, but there is an inherent danger that a massive invasion force can breach the blockade and put down tens of thousands or even more troops on the island, turning the war into a potential stalemate.

Here the lesson from the current war is: would Russia have attacked if Ukraine had already occupied both Donetsk, Luhansk and had the ability to fortify them on the level of Mariupol and Bakhmut? Ukraine of course had neither air nor navy presence but especially not ground presence, therefore Russia was emboldened by their apparent weakness.

Sporadic Ukranian shelling of the rebels achieved no military results due to lack of firepower and accuracy. Another show of weakness.

Therefore as the situation on the eastern border deteriorates, China must not take things slowly, it needs to inflict a campaign of total annihilation against the rebel, thereby causing paralyzing fear into Korea and Japan who are close enough that similar campaigns can be done to them. Which means even if America wants to invade, they have no regional bases to support them, no rebels left alive to help them and where they wish to invade will be a fortress.

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drowingfish said:

actually no, in order to subdue PLA on the island, the US only has to gain naval and air-superiority over the strait to cut off the lines of communications. now to do that is no simple feat of course.

i agree with the notion that the initial strike must be swift and deadly, even decisive. but that is not the same as attempting to land on Taiwan proper at the onset of battle. it makes much more sense to conduct swift landing operations on the islets of Penghu, Matsu and Donyin (Kinmen too but i think that one is a given). I have said this countless times before, it is impossible to attack Taiwan without control of those islets. but early attack on these isolated islets are very likely to succeed if they are conducted concurrently with the aerial campaign over Taiwan. under the initial shock Taiwan will be unable to coordinate effective defence over those islets, at least some of which will surrender without much resistance (it happens when you are isolated).

after a couple of days Taiwan will have recovered somewhat from the initial shock and become more organized and oriented, but by then it will find itself without any defence beyond its beaches, while the PLA has gained an unsinkable carrier at its doorstep in the form of Penghu. Taiwan will become indefensible at this point because it has always relied on Penghu to defend its soft belly around Tainan and Taichung, and it always used Dongyin and Matsu as an outpost to deny PLA a surprise attack on Taipei.

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vincent said:

Those you who think PLA needs to land troops on the Taiwan Island, please read this and patchwork's reply

Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Coup de Grace, mostly. It's actually surprisingly hard to get a starving, dehydrated island without communication to the outside world, without power, and with their previous leadership probably dead from POI strikes during the air campaign to surrender. Not because they don't want it to be...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

We keep talking about this. You make compelling point on why America getting involved is a bad idea. But domestic politics and think tanks would inevitably push America very close to this bad idea. We keep seeing people like Mark esper going to Taiwan and asking how many taiwanese are willing...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

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Biscuits said:

I think one needs to distinguish a normal resolution of the civil war (in which troops will perhaps not be necessary) and the scenario of America/Japan using the separatists as an excuse to invade, in which case in my view, troops on the ground would be an absolute necessity, because you need to push against the invaders' lines and their home bases, in particular Japan.

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Biscuits said:

and the scenario of America/Japan using the separatists as an excuse to invade, in which case in my view, troops on the ground would be an absolute necessity, because you need to push against the invaders' lines and their home bases, in particular Japan.

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vincent said:

There is no need for PLA troops to land on the Taiwan Island. PLA can enforce a naval and aerial blockade of the island till it surrenders.

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chlosy said:

Disagree... suggest fast, furious, short... short pain better than long pain

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vincent said:

How long Russian forces took to pacify Mariupol? Majority of the living area in Taiwan have been urbanized. To think ROC forces will surrender quickly is pure hubris.

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RedMetalSeadramon said:

Dragging it out will result in increase likelihood of foreign intervention. Whether they surrender or not the strategy should still be to gain a massive material advantage, which will be very limited if reduced to a blockade.

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