Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

AndrewS said:

Yes. China operating twice as many Beidou satellites as US GPS satellites also indicates:

1. the importance that the Chinese military places on satellite navigation
2. that they believe they can use those satellite navigation signals, despite attempts by the US to jam or spoof the signals

On the flipside, it means the US can also operate with the exact same logic with regards to their GPS satellites

And indeed, we see more investment in GPS guided munitions from the US in their latest spending authorisation, which includes 100K GLMRS rockets guided by GPS/INS

If we assume that both the US and China can use satellite navigation most of the time, remember that favours China in a Taiwan scenario. I reckon China would have a minimum of 10K aimpoints and possibly a maximum of 50k aimpoints. And Taiwan is close enough that large numbers of cheap GPS munitions can be delivered by the Chinese military.

In comparison, due to the distance to Taiwan, the US can deliver far fewer munitions to China

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It is very confusing when you say GPS for Chinese satellite navigation. It uses different orbit, frequency, encoding, has different satellite numbers, has different lines of sight, etc. It is almost incomparablely different from GPS, almost like a Ford Pinto vs a semitruck, the only similarity is that they're automobiles.

beijing_bandar said:

That sounds like a waste of ammunition. Would it be practical to use 1-2 bullets for every phone? Small groups of troops will encounter lots of civilians and need to rapidly destroy all of the phones. If the troops aren't able to do this easily and rapidly and after a week of getting hit by artillery, I fear they are going to take a casual attitude to civilian casualties. Massacres do not help win the war.

I'm not suggesting overengineering. Ideally, a simple modification to existing equipment carried by the rifleman helps destroy phones efficiently.

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All you need is a bucket... Then piss in it. Then throw phones in for 5 minutes. If someone is brave enough to use that, then good on them.

PiSigma said:

All you need is a bucket... Then piss in it. Then throw phones in for 5 minutes. If someone is brave enough to use that, then good on them.

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There already is a cheap solution on alibaba . personal jammers you can carry a jammer that only kills cellphones . In the usa they mounted em on humvees and used them to jam up to 2 miles out. Radio com was unaffected and no harm done to personal property which makes civys upset

beijing_bandar said:

That sounds like a waste of ammunition. Would it be practical to use 1-2 bullets for every phone? Small groups of troops will encounter lots of civilians and need to rapidly destroy all of the phones. If the troops aren't able to do this easily and rapidly and after a week of getting hit by artillery, I fear they are going to take a casual attitude to civilian casualties. Massacres do not help win the war.

I'm not suggesting overengineering. Ideally, a simple modification to existing equipment carried by the rifleman helps destroy phones efficiently.

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Russian society is very corrupt, including the army. You can expect them to disobey orders from their superiors in order to steal.

China is much, much less corrupt and stronger ideologically. Soldiers plundering and murdering civilians against orders is extremely unlikely. With no infrastructure or energy, nobody would be able to broadcast any crimes anyway. And by the time the army is in Taiwan cities, the war is over anyway.

Preventing war crimes also doesn't really matter much, because of the western track record of inventing war crimes for propaganda purposes as in Kuwait, Syria and now in Ukraine. No matter how well disciplined China acts, western publics and Taiwanese separatists are going to believe China is targeting innocent babies in hospitals.

Minm said:

Russian society is very corrupt, including the army. You can expect them to disobey orders from their superiors in order to steal.

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I assume some troops will behave badly under the stress of combat and artillery fire called in with coordinates from civilians. I also assume a recorded atrocity will be more effective in persuading Western governments to intervene and participate in the Taiwan War (e.g. enact a boycott of Chinese exports) than if Washington propagandists find a "Nurse Nayirah" to testify before Congress of troops pulling babies from incubators. ()

As a general principle, I start with conservative assumptions whether concerning the discipline of troops, Western propaganda, or mobile phone infrastructure. I encourage everyone to do the same. Challenge yourself to think through challenging scenarios.

There is no need for PLA troops to land on the Taiwan Island. PLA can enforce a naval and aerial blockade of the island till it surrenders.

Amusing video about An-2 (turboprop aircraft first manufactured in the 1940s) modified by Russia to act as throwaway drones. They will be employed as low cost air defense missile sponges. Azerbaijan used the tactic to great effect in 2020. The Chinese equivalent to the An-2 is the Y-5 and a variant has been in production as late as 2019.


At the same time, Taiwan or India might be able to do the same to a much more limited extent. Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) is awful at producing anything in large numbers, whether trainer jets or agricultural biplanes. Nonetheless Indians could get smart and buy lots of surplus turboprop aircraft from former Soviet countries to overwhelm air defense over the Himalayan range. Something to keep in mind.

beijing_bandar said:

Amusing video about An-2 (turboprop aircraft first manufactured in the 1940s) modified by Russia to act as throwaway drones. They will be employed as low cost air defense missile sponges. Azerbaijan used the tactic to great effect in 2020. The Chinese equivalent to the An-2 is the Y-5 and a variant has been in production as late as 2019.

At the same time, Taiwan or India might be able to do the same to a much more limited extent. Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) is awful at producing anything in large numbers, whether trainer jets or agricultural biplanes. Nonetheless Indians could get smart and buy lots of surplus turboprop aircraft from former Soviet countries to overwhelm air defense over the Himalayan range. Something to keep in mind.

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China already got J-7 converted to dumb drones (fly and crash into some coordinate, while carrying what? half a ton of explosives?)

vincent said:

There is no need for PLA troops to land on the Taiwan Island. PLA can enforce a naval and aerial blockade of the island till it surrenders.

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In one sense yes , the PLA would not need to land a large force of troops at first.

The PRC has the means to conduct a blockade but a naval/aerial blockade only works in theory if other nation states adhere to the blockade and do not interfere. In other words if one of the objectives of the PRC is to isolate the Island of Taiwan while at the same time deter "outsiders" from butting in. An naval/aerial blockade might have the opposite effect and draw "outsiders" into the affair(with No PLA troops on the Island).

Hypothetically speaking...

Even if the US stayed on the sidelines the PRC needs to be decisive(No Mercy) on the outset and not give the Islanders of Taiwan any time to hold out. Surprise Attack Full Out Invasion. They need to go for the jugular and not dick around something that Russia failed to do or could not do because they lacked the means(tools).

In the first opening stages/hours of a "special island operation" during which large scale "precision strikes" are being carried out to make the island "blind , deaf and dumb" , PLA special purpose units would be fanning across the island doing "Special Forces" stuff.

Once and only when air and sea control had been achieved by PLAAF/PLAN assets and an "air sea corridor" had been opened(set up) over a "certain part" of the island , PLAAF Airborne Assault Units and PLANM Heliborne Assault Units would be flown into "three zones" within that "air sea corridor" to establish "facts on the ground"...

In reality infiltrator sleeper cell units should be already on the ground (cough) now.

In the event of a preemptive strike to counter foreign plans to initiate a special operation against China, soldiers on the ground must happen because it is by far the best way to deter and halt enemies coming in from the east direction by sea and air.

Having large concentrations of troops on the island means that even if China is attacked by an outsider, they must sufficiently degrade the PLA troops on Taiwan in order to even make landfall.

Once there are hundreds of thousands PLA on the island, they can rapidly remake cities on Taiwan into fortresses, they can also deploy anti ship missiles to prevent enemy amphibious assaults.

Only an air and naval presence is sufficient against the rebel army alone, but there is an inherent danger that a massive invasion force can breach the blockade and put down tens of thousands or even more troops on the island, turning the war into a potential stalemate.

Here the lesson from the current war is: would Russia have attacked if Ukraine had already occupied both Donetsk, Luhansk and had the ability to fortify them on the level of Mariupol and Bakhmut? Ukraine of course had neither air nor navy presence but especially not ground presence, therefore Russia was emboldened by their apparent weakness.

Sporadic Ukranian shelling of the rebels achieved no military results due to lack of firepower and accuracy. Another show of weakness.

Therefore as the situation on the eastern border deteriorates, China must not take things slowly, it needs to inflict a campaign of total annihilation against the rebel, thereby causing paralyzing fear into Korea and Japan who are close enough that similar campaigns can be done to them. Which means even if America wants to invade, they have no regional bases to support them, no rebels left alive to help them and where they wish to invade will be a fortress.