Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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pesoleati

New Member
Registered Member
solarz said:
Don't know why you guys keep arguing about this. The PLA is making preparation for all possible scenarios. Landing capacity is already prepared, whether or not it will be used will depend on circumstances.

It's silly to declare things will happen according to certain imagined ways.
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What landing capacity are you talking about? Do you really think 3 075 changed everything? Most of people in Taiwan do not believe mainland will attach. I think they are correct. There is no mass build up in landing capacity. There is no build up in nukes. There is no expansion of land fighting force. How many time do you see PLA fighters carry AA missiles when they fly close to Taiwan?

CCP / PLA are bluffing. Or they are only making a show to Chinese people. I think they are smart and it is right thing to do. PLA is 20 years away from being ready to take Taiwan.

There are 4 signs to show CCP/PLA is in the position to take Taiwan: 1500 nukes, 6 carriers (001/002 do not count), 4000 fighter / bombers, 30+ SSNs. That is when they can fail 3 times and still have the force to launch another attach.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Chinese coast is close enough that you don't need any carriers to attack Taiwan. The carriers would at best be used to enforce a blockade of the island I think. I think it is way more likely they would just use the air force to isolate the island, and do heliborne assaults with paratroopers. Only as a second wave would you send IFVs and tanks in. The island is also close enough it is within MLRS range. And with guided MLRS rounds the heliborne infantry will have the artillery support they need.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Minm said:
The patchwork scenario doesn't get any more convincing even if it gets reposted all the time

You can't bet the future of China on the chance that the Americans are going to do nothing for thirty days while Taiwan gets starved into submission. What if Japan and the US prepare together for a Taiwanese declaration of independence and are ready to defend the island from day one?

There will be no Chinese surprise attack. If there will be a war, it will be an attempt of a Taiwanese surprise declaration of independence. The Americans will prepare in advance and their navy will be sailing towards China on their "independence day". What do you do then?
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Well, simple. Iran will send their Shahid drones and other super duper Iranian weapons that will bring fear to Japan, Taiwan, and U.S. much to the shock and annoyance of the hapless China.

Sarcasm aside, I had to write that absurdity to much the same absurdity of your ridiculous supposition. For Japan to be able go cobble their military and ably coordinating their attacks/defense of Taiwan with the U.S. without alerting China, it's swathe array of HUMINT, Military satellites, drones, cyber etc... would be utterly impossible and if that scenario were to occur then China deserves to have its ass handed to her and the CPC/PLA it's demise and Fall from power.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
pesoleati said:
What landing capacity are you talking about? Do you really think 3 075 changed everything? Most of people in Taiwan do not believe mainland will attach. I think they are correct. There is no mass build up in landing capacity. There is no build up in nukes. There is no expansion of land fighting force. How many time do you see PLA fighters carry AA missiles when they fly close to Taiwan?

CCP / PLA are bluffing. Or they are only making a show to Chinese people. I think they are smart and it is right thing to do. PLA is 20 years away from being ready to take Taiwan.

There are 4 signs to show CCP/PLA is in the position to take Taiwan: 1500 nukes, 6 carriers (001/002 do not count), 4000 fighter / bombers, 30+ SSNs. That is when they can fail 3 times and still have the force to launch another attach.
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LOL Please... Another comedian.
 
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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
pesoleati said:
What landing capacity are you talking about? Do you really think 3 075 changed everything? Most of people in Taiwan do not believe mainland will attach. I think they are correct. There is no mass build up in landing capacity. There is no build up in nukes. There is no expansion of land fighting force. How many time do you see PLA fighters carry AA missiles when they fly close to Taiwan?

CCP / PLA are bluffing. Or they are only making a show to Chinese people. I think they are smart and it is right thing to do. PLA is 20 years away from being ready to take Taiwan.

There are 4 signs to show CCP/PLA is in the position to take Taiwan: 1500 nukes, 6 carriers (001/002 do not count), 4000 fighter / bombers, 30+ SSNs. That is when they can fail 3 times and still have the force to launch another attach.
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Lmao, do you think only the 075 is available for landing capacity???

Anyways, the nukes are being built up (the 1k threshold is probably gonna be passed in just a few years), carriers won't actually be that needed, nor is your idea of needing 4000 fighter/bombers and 30+ SSNs realistic either lol.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Minm said:
The patchwork scenario doesn't get any more convincing even if it gets reposted all the time

You can't bet the future of China on the chance that the Americans are going to do nothing for thirty days while Taiwan gets starved into submission. What if Japan and the US prepare together for a Taiwanese declaration of independence and are ready to defend the island from day one?

There will be no Chinese surprise attack. If there will be a war, it will be an attempt of a Taiwanese surprise declaration of independence. The Americans will prepare in advance and their navy will be sailing towards China on their "independence day". What do you do then?
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The point is that even if the US intervenes, the US still can't resupply Taiwan effectively. If we can agree that China will have something close to Air-Naval superiority around Taiwan, then ships or aircraft can't reach Taiwan. In addition, all the airfields and seaports would be under attack

It's impossible to prepare a coordinated surprise declaration of independence between the US and Taiwan, and also for any major preparations to go unnoticed.

1. The Taiwanese government and military has been compromised at multiple levels, so if there was a widely known plan in advance, China will hear about it

2. During the Pelosi episode, the US military was warning the US government against the visit and that the US would not win in a war over Taiwan, as per Goldman's article on asiatimes. Note the US military was on full alert for an incident which may have led to a full-scale war

3. Large scale US naval movements and preparation will be noticed and will take days/weeks. The Chinese will demand these are reversed, and if not, this may trigger a Chinese first strike.

And even before Patchwork's writings on Taiwan, I was outlining similar scenarios on Taiwan being crippled on the forum
 
Z

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
Minm said:
The patchwork scenario doesn't get any more convincing even if it gets reposted all the time

You can't bet the future of China on the chance that the Americans are going to do nothing for thirty days while Taiwan gets starved into submission. What if Japan and the US prepare together for a Taiwanese declaration of independence and are ready to defend the island from day one?

There will be no Chinese surprise attack. If there will be a war, it will be an attempt of a Taiwanese surprise declaration of independence. The Americans will prepare in advance and their navy will be sailing towards China on their "independence day". What do you do then?
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It's a good idea, but it's an extreme idea. Americans and Japanese may need to publicly recognize independence and provide military protection，then they need to formulate a complex joint operation plan to ensure that they will not be submerged by missiles, while still intimidating China. Finally, until this plan can be successfully implemented, no information has been leaked or China has made no response to it.

According to common sense, the United States and Japan always disclose this information in advance through various public or private channels to try to intimidate China and test its response. As this is related to the loss of thousands of soldiers and countless military assets, it will take a long time to approve this plan.

Americans have also made no secret of maintaining a vague strategy, believing that it would be more beneficial not to provide clear and open commitments. Although there are also many interest groups related to Taiwan calling for radical policies, the military has a very profound understanding of the seriousness of the situation.

Of course, one thing I agree with is that it is better to solve problems quickly.
Zelensky was almost abandoned by the West at the beginning of the war, but due to the lack of strength of the Russians, the West decided to provide support according to Ukraine's performance.
We cannot rely on the West's adherence to the "one China" policy, 30 days means more unpredictable. This will give Americans enough time to prepare. Even if there is no direct conflict, their movements will certainly disperse a considerable part of their forces.
 
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sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
A lot of people overestimate the resilience of taiwan because they believe reddit analysts who claim that taiwan is an impregnable island fortress "armed to the teeth" and "spent 5 decades preparing for invasion"

In reality, taiwan being an island is what makes it incredibly vulnerable. China doesn't have to land a single soldier to force it to come to a political settlement. Almost all of taiwan's oil, electricity generation source and food is imported. Bomb Kaohsiung/Taipei ports and the island will return to the stone age within days/weeks. The only place America could resupply taiwan is the eastern coast, cut off from the majority of the population by the massive mountain range. Any airlifted supply would also be peanuts compared to what ports normally handle. Unless the taiwanese used to living peaceful middle income lives can somehow quickly adapt to living in rubble and eating tree bark, they're going to be crying to the UN for 1 country 2 systems in no time.

Let's not forget, the entirety of taiwan is barely the size of Donetsk (and half of that is inhospitable mountains). China has enough tube artillery, drones and old fighters to cover every military/infrastructure target with 24/7 bombardment. Taiwan's navy/airforce is a complete non-issue and ground movement/utilities will come to a standstill. The best they could do is try to missile strike mainland ports in retaliation, which, for a variety of reasons is going to be almost completely ineffective.

So what exactly is China waiting for actually? China doesn't want to tar its record with a brutal and bloody war destroying half of taiwan and causing massive global sanctions. It wants peaceful reunification if possible, or a short surgical operation otherwise. That is the biggest factor still stopping the mainland from taking military action.

I think China being able to defeat taiwan militarily, with or without US involvement, is not a question at all.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
sndef888 said:
A lot of people overestimate the resilience of taiwan because they believe reddit analysts who claim that taiwan is an impregnable island fortress "armed to the teeth" and "spent 5 decades preparing for invasion"

In reality, taiwan being an island is what makes it incredibly vulnerable. China doesn't have to land a single soldier to force it to come to a political settlement. Almost all of taiwan's oil, electricity generation source and food is imported. Bomb Kaohsiung/Taipei ports and the island will return to the stone age within days/weeks. The only place America could resupply taiwan is the eastern coast, cut off from the majority of the population by the massive mountain range. Any airlifted supply would also be peanuts compared to what ports normally handle. Unless the taiwanese used to living peaceful middle income lives can somehow quickly adapt to living in rubble and eating tree bark, they're going to be crying to the UN for 1 country 2 systems in no time.

Let's not forget, the entirety of taiwan is barely the size of Donetsk (and half of that is inhospitable mountains). China has enough tube artillery, drones and old fighters to cover every military/infrastructure target with 24/7 bombardment. Taiwan's navy/airforce is a complete non-issue and ground movement/utilities will come to a standstill. The best they could do is try to missile strike mainland ports in retaliation, which, for a variety of reasons is going to be almost completely ineffective.

So what exactly is China waiting for actually? China doesn't want to tar its record with a brutal and bloody war destroying half of taiwan and causing massive global sanctions. It wants peaceful reunification if possible, or a short surgical operation otherwise. That is the biggest factor still stopping the mainland from taking military action.

I think China being able to defeat taiwan militarily, with or without US involvement, is not a question at all.
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It's also that only the most recent governments realized impending American aggression and threat towards Taiwan.

If Xi Jinping plays his cards correctly, he can make America's incursion in September into China's Crimea moment, using it to secure the funds to mobilize the world's largest economy into military buildup and end the American threat through overwhelming force deterrence without having to fire a single shot at US forces.

Beijing is not impatient, it can wait 50 years for a peaceful resolution to the civil war. The only threat is from outside invasion. Once that is dealt with, they can slowly negotiate the end of the KMT.
 
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