Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Biscuits

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Sinnavuuty said:
At no time did I say that this is an innocent passage, only that Indonesia allowed allied air operations in its ADIZ against China while in the diplomatic effort they tend to adopt the supposed neutrality, that is, Indonesia did not adopt a direct stance against China, but China can take this as a direct message and attack Indonesia.

But it has Indonesian legal status. Will you believe in international endorsements more than national documents, even more so in war? Did you read the document?

That's what I've been saying since the penultimate page of this thread. haha
They will have to create a no-fly zone and risk shooting down Indonesian aircraft. What situation do you think this will create when China disproportionately responds as a miscalculation?

But that's where I'm making a provocation. Under indirect assistance, Indonesia would authorize air passage and operations in their ADIZ where they would have some national protection and support, but in direct air operations, they would not engage in combat against China, if China has the excuse to start bombing and shooting down Indonesian aircraft would be a great excuse for them to join the direct American war effort against China. Or do you think they will adopt neutrality at the risk of potential conflict with China? I can already tell you that this is very weak evidence.

Just as a comparison, I'm answering exactly this comment of yours:

That is, Indonesia would adopt a neutral stance in the diplomatic field and would not openly take sides, but would indirectly help the American war effort against China, this is very different from an aid in the direct war effort such as allowing ships to dock and allowing the takeoff and landing of American aircraft in the national territory. It's all a matter of perspective.
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"a great excuse for them to join the direct American war effort"

I.e. A great excuse for them to reduce their own population drastically for pretty much nothing.

Why would they voluntarily get bombed? Indonesia does not have a powerful military. A single 052 or a pair of 054 could sink the whole Indonesian navy by themselves. Nor do they have anything to prove by fighting a war that will cause immense destruction to their homeland.

Neutrality and just ignoring downed missiles and planes in their airspace seems to be the smartest choice, for survival.
 
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Lime

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Under the US's logic, stay neutral equals to stand on China's side.
Actually now the US always emphasizes its allies shows the US can not counter China alone.
This makes Indonesia can easily reject the US's request because China will not request the same.
 
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Biscuits

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Lime said:
Under the US's logic, stay neutral equals to stand on China's side.
Actually now the US always emphasizes its allies shows the US can not counter China alone.
This makes Indonesia can easily reject the US's request because China will not request the same.
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They afford to say that in Europe against Russia, through mind you, most of the time they also don't act on the threats. For example Serbia and Hungary are openly not toeing the party line and US doesn't really do anything.

Against China, things are different. They're not just going up against the world's largest economy, but they're going up with an economy built on services and insurance companies against one built on steel, engines and electronics.

Under extreme conditions like that, I think USA won't afford to piss off anyone with ultimatums or threats.

Honestly, if US invades, China will be the first one to issue ultimatum, to SK and maybe Japan. Even without PLA, Beijing is pointing a 1 million man army and thousands of artillery at Seoul's throat. So if China says either take a stand against America and join the embargo or get rolled over, it's pretty clear what any SK regime with a self preservation instinct will choose.

Not even having de jure control of SK army will help US when China is holding all the soldiers' families at artillery point. Orders are only powerful if they're obeyed.
 
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Atomicfrog

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Biscuits said:
They afford to say that in Europe against Russia, through mind you, most of the time they also don't act on the threats. For example Serbia and Hungary are openly not toeing the party line and US doesn't really do anything.

Against China, things are different. They're not just going up against the world's largest economy, but they're going up with an economy built on services and insurance companies against one built on steel, engines and electronics.

Under extreme conditions like that, I think USA won't afford to piss off anyone with ultimatums or threats.

Honestly, if US invades, China will be the first one to issue ultimatum, to SK and maybe Japan. Even without PLA, Beijing is pointing a 1 million man army and thousands of artillery at Seoul's throat. So if China says either take a stand against America and join the embargo or get rolled over, it's pretty clear what any SK regime with a self preservation instinct will choose.

Not even having de jure control of SK army will help US when China is holding all the soldiers' families at artillery point. Orders are only powerful if they're obeyed.
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When you are staying beside a world power, you stay neutral or friendly. If not you get busted economically.

Canada is beside the US and our governement would not dare to be anti-US but we are not following blindly sometimes. Don't know who will go to rescue us if we say that we are US enemy.

The same from country around China. Not many will come to Taiwan rescue if they risk direct actions. Well hidden in the UK or the US, the west can play little games but clearly not even sure what will happen if China is going for it. The balloon will most likely deflate with a lots of rhetoric for most country, ally or not and they will find something else to argue about.
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
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Biscuits said:
"a great excuse for them to join the direct American war effort"

I.e. A great excuse for them to reduce their own population drastically for pretty much nothing.
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Would that statement do any something if they adopted the pro-American stance after being attacked by China? I think not.
Biscuits said:
Why would they voluntarily get bombed? Indonesia does not have a powerful military. A single 052 or a pair of 054 could sink the whole Indonesian navy by themselves. Nor do they have anything to prove by fighting a war that will cause immense destruction to their homeland.
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Voluntarily? Not. Go back to my previous comment. There is no way they can do this voluntarily, only if they are FORCED to adopt this posture, I gave a very clear example of this.
Biscuits said:
Neutrality and just ignoring downed missiles and planes in their airspace seems to be the smartest choice, for survival.
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Really?

Are you aware that the US conducts exercises with Indonesia annually? The Garuda Shield is one of them, even Australia is invited to participate, later this year, the Super Garuda Shield 2022 had the smaller participation of Australia, but the exercise under the command of the Americans and the Indonesian army, these exercises are carried out more than a decade ago. Indonesia also closed many joint exercises with EU countries this year.

Regarding disagreements, we cannot forget the series of maritime confrontations between the Indonesian navy and Chinese fishing boats, which reinforced the Indonesian side in having to strengthen the defense around the Natuna archipelago that China claims both countries have overlapping claims to the nearby waters that Indonesia calls the Sea of Natuna.

Are we going to expect neutrality from a country with a this historic?
 
Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
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Atomicfrog said:
They should... but it's not meaning that they will do it.
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I agree.
Overbom said:
Why expect anything from anyone? Weak and puny mentality. Just swing your giant military dong and see who dares to make trouble

All that whine and scare about who will join the US side or not is bs. Build up the military and lets see who has the cohones to join America
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From what I saw a few pages back, some members here expect neutrality, hence the provocation exercise.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Sinnavuuty said:
Indonesia does not need to do this, it simply authorizes overflights by USAF/RAAF aircraft in their ADIZ that simply advertise neutrality while providing indirect support to the American and allied war effort. For the Americans and their diplomatic effort achieve this is much easier than simply forcing Indonesia to choose a side and in case China attacks Indonesia which I don't believe, but would force the Indonesians to take the American side.
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Nah, it all depends on the initial battle. If china is able to clear out us military presence within second island chain, it would have full control of shipping around china. Indonesia would have no choice but to rely on china. Same with all the other nearby countries. At the very least, they will verbally oppose us missiles flying over the top. They might even ask pla military to protect them.

Nobody wants to be on the side of the loser. Indonesia will have no issue with china sticking it to northern part of Australia.
 
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