Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

caudaceus said:

Which post?

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A cartoon created by a Taiwan military propagandist based on their defense outline.
They envisage using urban warfare to consume and delay the enemy in future wars, and regard the eastern part of Taiwan Island as a place to preserve strength and receive assistance.
For political correctness, the Taiwan army in the cartoon can resist any tactics of the PLA.

This is one issue no one has considered — use of tactical nukes against landing force.

SlothmanAllen said:

What does China do if the US avoids the conflict and simply resorts to economic sanctions against China? What if the US is able to build an international coalition on sanctions? I feel like sanctions and global perception turning against China is a much bigger risk then US intervention!

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Here is the better question, what difference would enacting sanctions be after a conflict over what is being done now?

The US is trying to disrupt the Chinese economy and outright trying to collapse Chinese-owned companies despite there being no open conflict between the two countries. American fortunes in China are basically resting on the rationality of Chinese leadership not to retaliate in kind.

Western perception is already against China (ie. Xinjiang situation, accusations of intellectual property theft, spying, etc.), so what is really different?

You could argue there would be harsher sanctions, but then the economic hardship will be difficult for either side to endure. Is Taiwan worth it?

siegecrossbow said:

This is one issue no one has considered — use of tactical nukes against landing force.

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I remember posting a redditor post couple months ago one of these Taiwan threads about nuking the West Coast of Taiwan to stop a landing. Either way, once the US uses tactical nukes then China is going to unleash their arsenal as well. There is no stopping the escalation.

siegecrossbow said:

This is one issue no one has considered — use of tactical nukes against landing force.

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FriedButter said:

I remember posting a redditor post couple months ago one of these Taiwan threads about nuking the West Coast of Taiwan to stop a landing. Either way, once the US uses tactical nukes then China is going to unleash their arsenal as well. There is no stopping the escalation.

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In case the Pentagon and the White House deploy their nuclear weapons, even tactical ones, regardless of against the PLA amphibious forces, or the landing beaches on Taiwan, or both - China would regard that as an unprovoked, direct nuclear attack on Chinese soil and Chinese civilians by the United States.

China would respond with full strategic nuclear retaliation. I believe that American cities being flattened and irradiated would be the only probable follow-up to that nuclear attack.

siegecrossbow said:

This is one issue no one has considered — use of tactical nukes against landing force.

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Hope they understand what is going to happen. 500 kg payload conventional DF-21 can be switched out to a 150 kg U235 tactical warhead with 20 kT yield, 5x50 kg countermeasures and some extended range.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Hope they understand what is going to happen.

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Considering the rumors of a Ukrainian dirty bomb. Who knows. Lavrov calling every other defense minister across the world including China and India.

I don’t know if anyone remembers but UK defense minister Ben Wallace flew to the US to privately talk to Lloyd Austin (US defense sec.) after saying all 3 systems of communications were compromised. This happened after we found out Lavrov called them about the dirty bomb.

FriedButter said:

I remember posting a redditor post couple months ago one of these Taiwan threads about nuking the West Coast of Taiwan to stop a landing. Either way, once the US uses tactical nukes then China is going to unleash their arsenal as well. There is no stopping the escalation.

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Someone else will use it too if the US start using it... it's a pandora box.

The US wont be the one to start using it, or at least wont be seen to be the one to start using it.

No, it will be a vassal state or an official enemy or a terrorist false flag actor seen as working for an official enemy. It will happen away from the ultimate target.

This needs to be so, so when the history is written ...

siegecrossbow said:

This is one issue no one has considered — use of tactical nukes against landing force.

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China can swap most MRBM and long range cruise missiles to tactical nukes as well. Guam and Okinawa are way more vulnerable than a few landing sites.

Furthermore once US causes civilian deaths, even if its only on Taiwan Island, there is a non zero chance China will strike dual use facilities in mainland USA with fobs. This is possible due to no first use policy.

They can for example bomb Newport news, the Pentagon, or CIA HQ in Langley. This would only happen if US themselves start applying terrorist tactics.