Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Biscuits

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s002wjh said:
russia can't build enough of it during wartime, russia is also under sanction of EU/US. taiwan could just buy bunch commercial mopad, motorbike engine from china during peace time and build up its inventory or produce its own, these drones are low tech, and cheap. all the parts from iran drones except airframe are probably from aliexpress, and they stockpile it during peace time, not during the war.
what if taiwan build tens of thousands of these and store at various location. whats the best defense against these drones. there is not a good way right now except madpand/anti-air guns, but those require line of sight so 5km radius of defense zone, drones with 2000km range, low altitude, faster compare to ground defense, can come from anytime, anywhere, and mainland have alot costal target needs to be protected. due to low tech barrier of these drones, pretty much any country can build it.
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China tracks stuff that goes into its borders... 10 000 shahed or components for them looks very suspicious, and there are moles within the KMT army that would also tell of such an acquisition plan.

When tensions ramp up, Taipei will be under 100x worse sanctions then Russia. And that's not an exaggeration. The CPC effectively controls all shipping and even if necessary can shut down the whole local energy grid. Under such conditions, building even actual mopeds will be nearly impossible let alone airborne ones.

A 100 ish drones isn't unfeasible for the rebel army to acquire, but tens of thousands is completely fanciful.
 
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s002wjh

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Biscuits said:
China tracks stuff that goes into its borders... 10 000 shahed or components for them looks very suspicious, and there are moles within the KMT army that would also tell of such an acquisition plan.

When tensions ramp up, Taipei will be under 100x worse sanctions then Russia. And that's not an exaggeration. The CPC effectively controls all shipping and even if necessary can shut down the whole local energy grid. Under such conditions, building even actual mopeds will be nearly impossible let alone airborne ones.

A 100 ish drones isn't unfeasible for the rebel army to acquire, but tens of thousands is completely fanciful.
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seriously, you think taiwan dont have capacity to manufacture 10k of these low tech drone over the next 5-10 years? we are not talking about tomorrow or next year. taiwan dont need to buy 10k all at once, they can even purchase it from 3rd party like vietnam. i'm pretty sure taiwan can manufacture 10k motopad/motobike engine license from honda or something. they can purchase cheap gps receiver or buy military grade one from US. the fact is if taiwan want to start stockpile these type drone, they can. how to effectively counter cheap drone, not so sure. except airframe and warhead, all the other parts can be purchased commercially and cheaply.
 
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supersnoop

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Biscuits said:
China tracks stuff that goes into its borders... 10 000 shahed or components for them looks very suspicious, and there are moles within the KMT army that would also tell of such an acquisition plan.

When tensions ramp up, Taipei will be under 100x worse sanctions then Russia. And that's not an exaggeration. The CPC effectively controls all shipping and even if necessary can shut down the whole local energy grid. Under such conditions, building even actual mopeds will be nearly impossible let alone airborne ones.

A 100 ish drones isn't unfeasible for the rebel army to acquire, but tens of thousands is completely fanciful.
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Actually considering how many actual mopeds are in use in Taiwan, terrible crusty 2-stroke mopeds no less, you could reasonably stockpile these engines under legit orders. That short of vehicle is basically banned on mainland.

That being said, to cross the strait, they have to avoid all the air search radars of ships, MPA and ELINT surveillance, combat air patrols (probably too high altitude, but still possible), and whatever else might spot them. The slow speed would make them trivial to intercept. Most of these platforms have cannons (or even main naval gun) which are better than wasting missiles.
 
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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
s002wjh said:
seriously, you think taiwan dont have capacity to manufacture 10k of these low tech drone over the next 5-10 years? we are not talking about tomorrow or next year. taiwan dont need to buy 10k all at once, they can even purchase it from 3rd party like vietnam. i'm pretty sure taiwan can manufacture 10k motopad/motobike engine license from honda or something. they can purchase cheap gps receiver or buy military grade one from US. the fact is if taiwan want to start stockpile these type drone, they can. how to effectively counter cheap drone, not so sure. except airframe and warhead, all the other parts can be purchased commercially and cheaply.
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They can stockpile it capability wise, but it will be tracked, and incur all sorts of countermeasures depending on what sigint and moles reveal the drones will be used for.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
supersnoop said:
That being said, to cross the strait, they have to avoid all the air search radars of ships, MPA and ELINT surveillance, combat air patrols (probably too high altitude, but still possible), and whatever else might spot them. The slow speed would make them trivial to intercept. Most of these platforms have cannons (or even main naval gun) which are better than wasting missiles.
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pretty sure ukraine spot those cheap drones too, but using anti-air missile just not worth it if the drone only cost $15k. anti-air gun or main cannon require line of sight, means the ship has to be within short distance of these drones. tracking it might be an issue if its flying at low altitude, there are also limit amount of targets each radar can track, how to bring it down with better cost ratio is also important. these drone maybe pre-programmed with custom flight path so jamming is not gonna work. with 2000km range, drone can certainly programmed to avoid taiwan strait and go a long route to avoid detection.
 
luosifen

luosifen

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ANYTHING taking off from Taiwan in an armed reunification scenario gets tracked by PLA ISR. At the speeds they fly PLAAF can gun them down with cannons before/after hitting targets on the island, also PLA could burn these things from the sky with their new laser AD systems at about ~$5 per shot. Saudi Arabia has already demonstrated good value with their Chinese export models.
 
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Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
s002wjh said:
pretty sure ukraine spot those cheap drones too, but using anti-air missile just not worth it if the drone only cost $15k. anti-air gun or main cannon require line of sight, means the ship has to be within short distance of these drones. tracking it might be an issue if its flying at low altitude, there are also limit amount of targets each radar can track, how to bring it down with better cost ratio is also important. these drone maybe pre-programmed with custom flight path so jamming is not gonna work. with 2000km range, drone can certainly programmed to avoid taiwan strait and go a long route to avoid detection.
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Taiwan is small. A large number of targets can be destroyed in the initial wave of missiles. Most Taiwanese weapons including drones will be destroyed on the ground. But of course an armed reunification won't be without sacrifices. Some enemy drones will get through
 
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supersnoop

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s002wjh said:
pretty sure ukraine spot those cheap drones too, but using anti-air missile just not worth it if the drone only cost $15k. anti-air gun or main cannon require line of sight, means the ship has to be within short distance of these drones. tracking it might be an issue if its flying at low altitude, there are also limit amount of targets each radar can track, how to bring it down with better cost ratio is also important. these drone maybe pre-programmed with custom flight path so jamming is not gonna work. with 2000km range, drone can certainly programmed to avoid taiwan strait and go a long route to avoid detection.
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You mentioned yourself, the problem Ukraine is having to track these drones is low altitude flight. They are literally able to fly under the radar. However, the claimed interception rate is quite high. Even if we don’t believe that rate, we know from Saudis and Pakistani’s experience (even American’s to an extent) that they aren’t a big problem with proper AA network.

First, these drones don’t have 2000km range, they have 1000km. The more you deviate from the optimal flight path, the less range inland.

Sea based radar has to deal with sea skimmers, don’t think a drone is much issue. Preprogrammed flight path would be even easier to detect.

Gun needs line of sight, but there are so many little ships like 022 and 056 (coast guard) with 30mm and 76mm cannon that is perfect and cheap.

Suicide drones would probably be better off to hit landing ships than mainland targets.
 
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Abominable

Major
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Low altitude flight comes with its own set of problems, like reduced range and increased suceptabilty to small arms fire.

I think the best strategy for drone warfare is medium/high altitude flight to draw out radar and portable SAM stations followed by surgical strike by ballistic missile/PGM.

It's sort of what Russian tactics are evolving into, but on a much bigger scale.
 
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