Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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tphuang

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But his argument about depriving the enemy of sleep is a powerful one. If you can keep up a constant barrage over several days and night, spread evenly over the entire island, you will simply break people psychologically as lack of sleep is absolutely devastating after 48+ hours. But it would have to be an absolutely massive and sustained barrage. Of course, it would also cripple all kinds of vital infrastructure. After a few days, you just swoop in with fresh and rested troops.
you can do that much better with persistent UAV over the top.
 

supersnoop

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It is not an either or relationship. If there are SPAAG or other short range air defense system in the area, they will be attacked by glide bombs or KD-series missiles while the cheap drone attacks continue around the clock.

Of course you would use both, but I think on this thread there is people are starting to think these suicide drones are like HIMARS, a wonder weapon.

Even if easy to shoot down, spending maybe 100 million USD to build 10,000 basic drones seems like a good investment. Maybe it'll do nothing, but if it does help, it would have been very stupid not do so just to save so little money.

On Taiwan there'll be an environment where most power stations and fuel depots have been taken out by ballistic missiles and airstrikes, there are fires in most cities and no internet connection. Under these circumstances, small but noisy drones at night will be hard to spot or hear above the noise of chaos and constant bombs. A devastating shock and awe campaign against the whole island could be done nonstop, depriving the enemy of sleep. If they have to shoot down 100 drones per hour while being attacked from the air by more powerful missiles at the same time, the efficiency of air defence will go down after some time.

It is just a matter of diminishing returns at one point. Not necessarily to save money, but these things won't go back to base, so if there is nothing to take out, then it is just gone. This is why I don't think there are more of the J-6 drone (only about ~150). They are probably more useful as decoys than for attack.

Actually, that's one good scenario to not use suicide drones. If you already took the fixed targets, then you want to use ISR to determine the targets on the fly and then engage them. In fact, having little drones fly over a target and drop a bomb down would be better than just sending a bunch of suicide drones in there.

I'm not sure why people are not considering this idea more.
MALE type drone with some kind of MAM-T style light glide bomb could provide both persistence and immediate effect on target. Probably would be more useful in 90% of cases and still be out of range of most MANPADS. Cost would probably be similar.
 

s002wjh

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look like low altitude, small size, cheap and swarm tactic was able to penetrate deep into ukraine and strike the stationary target.
what happen if taiwan build tens thousands of these , and used to strike mainland coastal area in the event of war. given these can fly from anywhere, from land or small ships with rocket assit. the cost of shooting down with missile is not cost effective.
 

AssassinsMace

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look like low altitude, small size, cheap and swarm tactic was able to penetrate deep into ukraine and strike the stationary target.
what happen if taiwan build tens thousands of these , and used to strike mainland coastal area in the event of war. given these can fly from anywhere, from land or small ships with rocket assit. the cost of shooting down with missile is not cost effective.
Not after US demands that Taiwan buy the more expensive parts from them. China can do it more and better than Taiwan ever will.
 

siegecrossbow

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look like low altitude, small size, cheap and swarm tactic was able to penetrate deep into ukraine and strike the stationary target.
what happen if taiwan build tens thousands of these , and used to strike mainland coastal area in the event of war. given these can fly from anywhere, from land or small ships with rocket assit. the cost of shooting down with missile is not cost effective.

You do know who makes the engines for the Iranian drones right?

Hint: it is now located in a city just across from Jinmen.
 
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Jingle Bells

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look like low altitude, small size, cheap and swarm tactic was able to penetrate deep into ukraine and strike the stationary target.
what happen if taiwan build tens thousands of these , and used to strike mainland coastal area in the event of war. given these can fly from anywhere, from land or small ships with rocket assit
Well, if they and you want to taunt this at China now, you might as well save your effort of empty threats and really start working on building them. Because Mainland China have already built millions, if not billions of drones, many of which are military drones.

And if being in this forum not already inform you of how powerful China's drone industry is, I think you should spend some more time reading through the threads more carefully here. This is not so different from taunting and boasting about HIMARS in the face of none other but China. Utterly ridiculous and amateur.

Fool: "Oh, wow, look at my HIMARS with its devastating hitting range of 40 miles! Can you match that, China! Aren't you scared shitless!"
China: ........
China: To be honest, I am amazed at how you could have the heart to put such a short ranged artillery on such a high-end/expensive chassis.... it's sacrilegious!!

Drones, as well as any other military hard ward, have their limitations, especially against an opponent who already excel at them. Taiwan is in NO position to compete with China on drones, it will be an total waste of money.

Fool: "Just you wait China, we could build millions of small drones and swarm you from Taiwan!!"
China: .........
Also China: (Slowly puts on her Autel Hat, her Huneec shade, and sip from her DJI glass, while being surrounded by dozens of world leading Chinese drone companies and Chinese military industrial drone manufacturers) What were you saying?
 
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Biscuits

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look like low altitude, small size, cheap and swarm tactic was able to penetrate deep into ukraine and strike the stationary target.
what happen if taiwan build tens thousands of these , and used to strike mainland coastal area in the event of war. given these can fly from anywhere, from land or small ships with rocket assit. the cost of shooting down with missile is not cost effective.
You need factories to build them and rebel army don't really have the infrastructure to make more than 1 wave. If the preparation of a major terrorist attack is detected, its quite possible that government forces will simply respond by destroying the facility posing a threat.

Beijing has a lot of 35mm and 57mm wheeled platforms on the defensive front.

Without heavy, advanced missiles to open a breach, drones are not going to work well. Certain types of weapons such as WMDs or ones with terror potential are considered unacceptable in the civil war. Beijing can easily afford to shoot down 1000 drones even using relatively expensive shorads, then send in advanced missiles on every major target and fire back 10 000+ cheap drones once basically all KMT army command posts have been destroyed.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
Well, if they and you want to taunt this at China now, you might as well save your effort of empty threats and really start working on building them. Because Mainland China have already built millions, if not billions of drones, many of which are military drones.

And if being in this forum not already inform you of how powerful China's drone industry is, I think you should spend some more time reading through the threads more carefully here. This is not so different from taunting and boasting about HIMARS in the face of none other but China. Utterly ridiculous and amateur.

Drones, as well as any other military hard ward, have their limitations, especially against an opponent who already excel at them. Taiwan is in NOT position to compete with China on drone, it will be an total waste of money.
You do know who makes the engines for the Iranian drones right?

Hint: it is now located in a city just across from Jinmen.
yes i get it, china can build millions of these, but i'm talking about when all of taiwan air force, stationary target been destroy, mobile drone and other mobile platform will allow them to directly attack mainland. if iran drone is 2000km, i'm sure taiwan but build something similar.

as far as 35 mm 57mm, ukraine also has alot those too, but it can't stop all of it. also given the range of these drone, it can be programmed to have way points, multiple swarm attack single target via multiple direction. anti-air guns or manpad have short range, basically require line of sight. china have much bigger area to protect compare to taiwan.

taiwan can't match china ships/jets/cruise missile, but these are cheap and pose threat when use as swarm. its asymmetric taiwan could exploit.
 

siegecrossbow

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yes i get it, china can build millions of these, but i'm talking about when all of taiwan air force, stationary target been destroy, mobile drone and other mobile platform will allow them to directly attack mainland. if iran drone is 2000km, i'm sure taiwan but build something similar.

as far as 35 mm 57mm, ukraine also has alot those too, but it can't stop all of it. also given the range of these drone, it can be programmed to have way points, multiple swarm attack single target via multiple direction. anti-air guns or manpad have short range, basically require line of sight. china have much bigger area to protect compare to taiwan.

taiwan can't match china ships/jets/cruise missile, but these are cheap and pose threat when use as swarm. its asymmetric taiwan could exploit.

But building them on scale and at a cheap price is not trivial. Unless there is an existing supply chain for building all the components in Taiwan, then they can't build comparable drones.

There is a reason that Russia is importing them instead of making their own. If Russia, with an advanced MIC, can't do the economy of scale, what makes you think Taiwan can do it?
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
But building them on scale and at a cheap price is not trivial. Unless there is an existing supply chain for building all the components in Taiwan, then they can't build comparable drones.

There is a reason that Russia is importing them instead of making their own. If Russia, with an advanced MIC, can't do the economy of scale, what makes you think Taiwan can do it?
russia can't build enough of it during wartime, russia is also under sanction of EU/US. taiwan could just buy bunch commercial mopad, motorbike engine from china during peace time and build up its inventory or produce its own, these drones are low tech, and cheap. all the parts from iran drones except airframe are probably from aliexpress, and they stockpile it during peace time, not during the war.
what if taiwan build tens of thousands of these and store at various location. whats the best defense against these drones. there is not a good way right now except madpand/anti-air guns, but those require line of sight so 5km radius of defense zone, drones with 2000km range, low altitude, faster compare to ground defense, can come from anytime, anywhere, and mainland have alot costal target needs to be protected. due to low tech barrier of these drones, pretty much any country can build it. russia/ukraine war show us both side use drones. so whats the counter to these cheap low tech drones.
 
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