Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

supersnoop said:

PTT is worse than reddit.
Taiwan has 70 or so ATACMS with range to reach mainland.
HIMARS/M270 has nothing else that can reach the other side. For every one ATACMS launch detected by PLA, the Rocket force can respond with 100's of their own BM and even more regular artillery rockets.
Russia does not have the protection of the sea between her forces and Ukraine.
ATACMS will have to fly through 100's of PLAN SAMs and PLA SAM complexes.
How can there be a delay anyway? For Ukraine, HIMARS is a "new" system. Russia might not know what to expect or it's weaknesses. For Taiwan, the approval is 2 years old. PLA already planned for it.

The situation will develop in their favour if they go to mainland China now, find a job and develop good contacts. This way they can return to Taiwan to aid in reconstruction should the worse come to pass (or just enjoy the higher wages if nothing happens).

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I just want to explain that the stubbornness of these people is beyond the imagination of ordinary people.
In Taiwan, "being able to defend against invaders" is an undeniable political correctness.

They have made every effort to find reasons to prove that Taiwan can defend itself.Therefore, it is impossible for them to change their mentality and surrender voluntarily.

As for the simulation of the conflict between China and the United States by the Americans in the past few days, these people think that the Americans obviously overestimated the strength of the PLA.
You read that right, they think PLA is overrated.

All in all, for them, as long as they have enough missiles, they can destroy the enemy like playing "Plants vs. Zombies".

Mohsin77 said:

How is the USN going to rebuild a fleet, if they don't have a fleet to defend their harbors where new fleets are built?

Even leaving direct strikes on the US out, this isn't the 1940s where you can churn out carriers like hot cakes, even with a total war economy. How much time will it take for the USN to rebuild a whole new fleet that can challenge China in WESTPAC again? And how much time will China have to respond to that newborn fleet? Point being: A decisive conventional victory in WESTPAC is very much possible, if you delete the enemy's existing air and naval forces.

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How capable is the PLAN of reaching out and touching USN shipbuilding facilities like NNSY, PNSY, PSNS, and Pearl Harbor without using BMs (or at least without using BMs launched from the mainland or close to it, something that would look too much like a nuclear strike)? What about their smattering of commercial shipyards? I have asked around about this recently and no one has been able to give me a clear answer on how far out the PLAN can reach if they've defeated the USN in the western Pacific. The PLAN has 12 replenishment ships right now (based on my casual Wikipedia skimming), and seem to have current plans to roughly double that fleet. The US (based on my casual googling) seems to have 42 replenishment ships, so it's not like there's an order of magnitude difference there (again, this could be one of those things were this isn't comparing like for like and the US is actually massively ahead). If it's not too far off though, with China having an order of magnitude greater shipbuilding capacity I could see that ratio inverting reasonably rapidly.

Maybe the idea is that the US could rapidly convert commercial port facilities into shipyards, making them a naval production powerhouse again in short order? Seems like a stretch to me (machinery, labour, retrofitting... it would take a lot of time, right?), but maybe the PLAN needs to plan for the possibility just in case, "Don't underestimate your enemy" etc.


Related question, how capable is the US or Japan of destroying Chinese shipbuilding infrastructure at the start of hostilities to try and prevent a war economy buildup?

ansy1968 said:

All is well and DANDY UNTIL THE RUSSIAN show up....lol and you can include the pesky NK, man KIM has the temerity to nuked Japan for the 2nd time....lol, China is not alone, IF the American use its allies to subdue China then she has friends to back her up, IF China lost they're next. And it cancel out each other, NK will cancelled out any SK support, while Japan may incur attacks from unexpected sources, I may predict that IF NK attack Japan the SK will stay silent and may applaud the NK effort...lol

The most committed allies the US expect are those of the 5eyes BUT they were spread out and most them will be fighting at the rear UNLESS you count the Royal Navy so called Wunderwaffen Carriers with borrowed F35 as a frontline warship. This fight will be a Mano en Mano between China and the US, the rest are side show. What about EU, they will be tied down facing Russia and Iran may take advantage and liberate the Iraqis further complicating things for the US.

For me the restrain that China imposed on itself had been unshackled, the Pelosi visit is the Final straw, for China the strategy is to shift from being docile to proactive like supplying arms to any countries under threat by the Collective West, the strategy now is to spread the threat that the American will face with deadly arms making the already stretch US military and economy even more, resulting to a System Collapse.

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North Korea is going to Nuke Japan to help China?
Russia is going to show up and help China? Please stop the crazy talk.

Petrolicious88 said:

North Korea is going to Nuke Japan to help China?
Russia is going to show up and help China? Please stop the crazy talk.

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NK is not gonna nuke anyone unless they get nuked first.

Russia is as likely to help China as Australia or Japan is to help US. Which is pretty high. If I was an American planner I'd count 100% on it.

China might not call Russia if SK and especially Japan refuses to join, because calling Russia would be unnecessarily escalatory. But if US starts a great pacific war then Russia wouldn't stand idly by, thinking so pure wishful copium from americoids, the same type of retards who believe every word from Peter Zeihan.

Petrolicious88 said:

North Korea is going to Nuke Japan to help China?

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Bro from WIKIPEDIA, IF NK become desperate Japan is a Target. and SK will agree.

The China-DPRK Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, or The Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty is a treaty signed on 11 July 1961 between North Korea and China. The treaty is currently the only defense treaty China and North Korea have with any nation.

Petrolicious88 said:

Russia is going to show up and help China? Please stop the crazy talk.

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Ohhhh yeah Baby, Japan is Russophobic, the trauma they sustain in WW 2 is still fresh in their memory...lol C'mon man Japan is not stupid as it looks and so is the US, Abe wishes to re arm and be a normal nation BUT the US don't trust them and they should be after nuking them there's a thirst for revenge.

Russia will back China cause IF China fall they will be next, IF war do happen in Taiwan it will become a world conflagration or WW3, as the US is focus in the Pacific and hard press to sustain a prolong military campaign, the Iranians and other nation with axe to grind against the US will act as the American is stretch thin, they don't have the overwhelming power they used to have. So they want to confine the conflict within the Taiwan proper BUT can they contain it especially IF China sunk a Carrier? and will Japan really rush to American aid IF the situation worsen to a nuclear conflict? Bro IF you have an answer I'm all ears.

And one more thing IF a world power is weakened and like the Roman empire of old everybody smell blood, and IF that World Power sustain a heavy lost or casualties then she is vulnerable with it her prestige, everybody will gang up on her for revenge and those overseas bases will be targeted like those from Iraq.

That lesson is not lost among the US military hierarchy, as long as they are in command they will make sure it won't happen under their watch.

Biscuits said:

NK is not gonna nuke anyone unless they get nuked first.

Russia is as likely to help China as Australia or Japan is to help US. Which is pretty high. If I was an American planner I'd count 100% on it.

China might not call Russia if SK and especially Japan refuses to join, because calling Russia would be unnecessarily escalatory. But if US starts a great pacific war then Russia wouldn't stand idly by, thinking so pure wishful copium from americoids, the same type of retards who believe every word from Peter Zeihan.

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Conversely PLA planners shouldn’t count on Russia help. China hasn’t helped Russia in Ukraine despite Russia’s desperate need for military drones, Sat intelligence, targeting sensors, missiles, etc…

Sure Russia will support China with oil and energy once war starts. But that might be it. Russia’s military is geared for a large scale land war against NATO.

Petrolicious88 said:

Conversely PLA planners shouldn’t count on Russia help. China hasn’t helped Russia in Ukraine despite Russia’s desperate need for military drones, Sat intelligence, targeting sensors, missiles, etc…

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Well IF you're planning for a military campaign you should add contingency for any possibility and having a Russian military buildup on the Japanese northern frontier surely can help.

Petrolicious88 said:

Sure Russia will support China with oil and energy once war starts. But that might be it. Russia’s military is geared for a large scale land war against NATO.

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As did the Japanese, like I said IF there is a conflict it will be between the China and the US and of course with tiny Australia Chihuahua barking at the rear....lol

delete double post....

ansy1968 said:

Bro from WIKIPEDIA, IF NK become desperate Japan is a Target. and SK will agree.

The China-DPRK Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, or The Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty is a treaty signed on 11 July 1961 between North Korea and China. The treaty is currently the only defense treaty China and North Korea have with any nation.

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China will militarily intervene on behalf of North Korea if its first attacked by US/South Korea. That’s the extent the defense treaty. Deep down Kim doesn’t trust China.

——-In fact there is a chance that SK with backing from US might take advantage of a Taiwan war to attack NK. Create a two prone war for China. India might do the same along the sino-Indian border—-

Outside of that scenario, the only reason North Korea might attack Japan (and that’s a huge if), is If the regime is facing existential threat Japan/US. It’s not going to Nuke Japan to help China over Taiwan.

Petrolicious88 said:

China will militarily intervene on behalf of North Korea if its first attacked by US/South Korea. That’s the extent the defense treaty. Deep down Kim doesn’t trust China.

——-In fact there is a chance that SK with backing from US might take advantage of a Taiwan war to attack NK. Create a two prone war for China. India might do the same along the sino-Indian border—-

Outside of that scenario, the only reason North Korea might attack Japan (and that’s a huge if), is If the regime is facing existential threat Japan/US. It’s not going to Nuke Japan to help China over Taiwan.

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Lmao "deep down Kim doesn't trust China" source: my ass

I could also sprout some meaning less platitudes about how "deep down Kishida doesn't trust America" and Japan is actually gonna turn on them or expel their troops when China attacks. Pure copium.

"China hasn't helped Russia in Ukraine despite Russia's desparate..."

Russia never asked for aid and they're winning at their own pace. Any sources that China would betray them if they actually asked for assistance?

Somehow thinking India would help US invade China, more pure copium. Lol. India, a neutral country, who has 1-2 months worth of logistics for their army assuming none of their warehouses get bombed, that struggle to even find rifle suppliers is surely gonna invade over the himalayas while having no air support and while Pakistan is peering at them over the border.

Stop reading Tom clancy murica stronk fanfiction.