Keep bombing.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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see this video of Ukraine. this low flight of bombers/fighters. to ensure greater accuracy and the isolated blast. this very different approach than what is expected.
Have you read what I wrote earlier? The goal of this is not to give Taiwan time. The several weeks is needed to build up an invading force and work out all the logistical issues they might have after the initial phase. Remember, a main lesson from Russia/Ukraine conflict is to not let the other side know that an attack is coming. As such, everything PLA does before hand need to look like a regular high intensity war game. That way, PLA can attack when they are the most ready and when US/Japanese military are the least ready to respond. If anything the recent Pelosi visit has shown us, it is that America simply cannot respond quickly when its ships are undergoing maintenance and active carrier groups are at the end of their deployment.
On top of that, a beach landing at the start of the conflict is extremely dangerous for PLA. The several weeks is needed to constantly bombard Taiwanese military installation, fuel depots, infrastructures and demoralize the defense. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is not self sufficient in food and import all of its oil/gas. Several weeks of blockade will leave Taiwanese military unable to mount much of a defense. Taiwanese people will be exhausted from lack of electricity, internet, gas and food. At which point, an landing + invasion becomes infinitely easier. I would hope that they wouldn't even need to invade after waiting for 4 weeks and not seeing any sign of US aid.
I think they need to find an optimum time of landing. Let's say US military needs 2 months of time to mount a large credible response. PLA would probably spend much of those 2 months continuing to degrade Taiwan/Japan as well as setting itself up in the best position to defend against a large strike force from the west coast.
On the Taiwan front, I think they'd probably try a landing on Penghu pretty early on. And then, set up a base there with artillery and more heavy 300 mm rockets. It will also allow them to surround Taiwan with attack helicopters and drones to detect and attack any moving military targets. If Taiwan surrenders after 6 weeks, China can land half a million soldiers with fully built out air defense, engineering units and extend China's defense 200 km out. It will allow them to push US carriers and nuclear submarines further out. Also imo, if China can eventually land a million members of PLA and PAP on Taiwan, US military would never be able to push them out.
If Taiwan doesn't surrender, China should still be able to land against a much more degraded guerilla force and take over large part of the island. And more importantly, repair and use the air fields and set up their own military installations.
Just look at what Russian army did to the Ukrainian soldiers in the East. Ukrainians were far more dug in there than Taiwanese are. Based on what I can see, Taiwanese people see clearly that they are being used by America to contain China. They have much higher living standard than Ukrainians. Their military is not getting itself ready for a long guerilla warfare. If Russian army can destroy the Ukrainian morale and combat capability in the East after 2 months of constant shelling, is it reasonable to expect that Taiwanese military can keep up its morale/combat capability after 4 to 6 weeks of more precise bombing from PLAGF artillery and swarms of drones over their head?
As I see it, Beijing should only pursue immediate resolution of the civil war if it is clear that Taipei intends to allow itself to be used by US in order to invade.
Overwhelming fire quantity is the best bet for the government forces to win early on, which is critical because an early victory on the island will have a very strong deterrent effect against potential invaders who now have to land on territory almost as well fortified as the mainland.
If Russia was capable of firing 15 000 munitions a day, China must push its military industry capability to the edge and fire as much as possible, if anything is shown by the Ukraine war, its that artillery numbers matter. A volume of fire at 50 000 to 100 000 munitions a day would not just decimate ROC forces in days, but have a tremendous morale effect. The question is if China can achieve these rates.
I disagree with what was written further above regarding landing points taking weeks to establish. When Beijing is bombing the rebels at a scale never seen before in the world, fueled by their full economic and industrial capability, there will naturally open pockets that allow PLA to infiltrate.
Already from day 1-3, China can and should attempt small scale landings on areas where rebel formations collapsed. Having a presence of government troops physically on the island will cause a much faster enemy rout.
Taiwan has a lot of coastline, and it is seriously delusional to believe heavily bombed rebels with lackluster training and destroyed command facilities are able to cover all of the coastline with defenses. These are not hardened taliban nor ex soviet troops whose ancestor trained and gave them stockpiles for ww3. ROC troops are just Chinese people accustomed to coastal city life, asked to fight for what reason? So they can become a colony under some of the most historically horrific regimes, as is the will of the IJA nationalists in the leadership? This isn't the politically correct explanation given to them, most likely, theyre told to fight to protect their home, family and status quo. But this pragmatic cause will backfire when Beijing offers the rank and file amnesty if they surrender. If ROC is powerless to stop 10 000s of bombs hitting all around me, how would I trust them in keeping my family safe?
With the ROC main command facilities destroyed, such thoughts will proliferate among the conscripts, even as they get more and more reports of suspected PLA sightings and saboteurs. It would only be a short matter of time until the proverbial dam breaks and China can funnel troops in en masse from a captured port city.
Overwhelming fire quantity is the best bet for the government forces to win early on, which is critical because an early victory on the island will have a very strong deterrent effect against potential invaders who now have to land on territory almost as well fortified as the mainland.
If Russia was capable of firing 15 000 munitions a day, China must push its military industry capability to the edge and fire as much as possible, if anything is shown by the Ukraine war, its that artillery numbers matter. A volume of fire at 50 000 to 100 000 munitions a day would not just decimate ROC forces in days, but have a tremendous morale effect. The question is if China can achieve these rates.
I disagree with what was written further above regarding landing points taking weeks to establish. When Beijing is bombing the rebels at a scale never seen before in the world, fueled by their full economic and industrial capability, there will naturally open pockets that allow PLA to infiltrate.
Already from day 1-3, China can and should attempt small scale landings on areas where rebel formations collapsed. Having a presence of government troops physically on the island will cause a much faster enemy rout.
Taiwan has a lot of coastline, and it is seriously delusional to believe heavily bombed rebels with lackluster training and destroyed command facilities are able to cover all of the coastline with defenses. These are not hardened taliban nor ex soviet troops whose ancestor trained and gave them stockpiles for ww3. ROC troops are just Chinese people accustomed to coastal city life, asked to fight for what reason? So they can become a colony under some of the most historically horrific regimes, as is the will of the IJA nationalists in the leadership? This isn't the politically correct explanation given to them, most likely, theyre told to fight to protect their home, family and status quo. But this pragmatic cause will backfire when Beijing offers the rank and file amnesty if they surrender. If ROC is powerless to stop 10 000s of bombs hitting all around me, how would I trust them in keeping my family safe?
With the ROC main command facilities destroyed, such thoughts will proliferate among the conscripts, even as they get more and more reports of suspected PLA sightings and saboteurs. It would only be a short matter of time until the proverbial dam breaks and China can funnel troops in en masse from a captured port city.
Volume of fire is not as important as the accuracy of the fires. Why fire 20 rounds in order to hit an enemy position when one guided round can do the job. One only needs to fire tons of munitions into a general area because one doesn’t know where exactly enemies are.
One of the reasons people are laughing at Russian forces is the lack of guided munitions and the lack of sensory platforms. Can’t find the enemy and can’t hit the enemy with pinpoint accuracy.
The exact hubris Russia made at the beginning of the “Special Military Operation”, expecting mass surrender of Ukrainian forces.
As already addressed, morale of hardened ex USSR troops with a fully functional command system can't be compared to morale of conscripts with deficient commands that are expected to be destroyed in days.
PLA systems have a high degree of accuracy, but volume of fire doesn't hurt, it only increases the chances and destroys the morale of opposing troops. China has the best (most accurate) satellite targeting system while operating on Eurasia, so the shots coming in will be exceptionally accurate by any standards, but especially compared to Russians in Ukraine. That is why, if high tens of thousands of rounds are fired, it will be like shooting fish in a barrel. This will cause panic among any rebel troops that are cut off from command.
Speed is key because China needs to have operational control over large parts of Taiwan before US can invade with their troops, which will be a much more even match against the PLA.
The US doesn't need two months, they can send one Supercarrier and two amphibious ships with F-35s within a day. Flying more planes to Japan won't take very long either. The political process in the US is slow and American forces will probably wait for resupplies to be organised before joining the war, so there might be two weeks of time before they intervene. Assuming of course that they're determined to take part in the war.
China won't have the luxury of time, initial landings have to happen as soon as possible. The outlying islands and penghu should be taken in the first two days followed by landings on the main island. The ROC forces may or may not surrender, but giving them time only allows political pressure in the US to build up, ensuring that a US China war happens. You also can't give them two months to train reservists.
This Artillery is myth created by media by not understanding why artillery and rockets become important. It willingness to avoid seismic damages to entire cities. Buildings are standing and people residing in Ukraine .
Airpower is the decisive factor. you just need to study Syria. and think over what kind of latest development can magnify it.
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In4ser
Junior Member
Whether or not China should try and end the war with Taiwan fast or slow should depend on China’s ability to maintain a blockade. The US landing troops in Taiwan is the same as the enemy sending reinforcements to a castle siege. If China has the ability to maintain its blockade indefinitely then why bother even if US sends 100,000 marines into Taiwan? More mouths to feed means a faster starvation and attrition of resources of the island. Moreover, just as the US talks about PLA’s vulnerability while landing, so too would the the US marines and USN be at risk making a landing.
If China cannot maintain a blockade, then it must do everything it can quickly or it may lose the island forever. However, I feel confident that China does have enough firepower and capability to sink any foreign military that should attempt a landing and maintain its blockade indefinitely. So I’m a proponent of taking it slow and steady but I could be wrong and war is unpredictable.
If China cannot maintain a blockade, then it must do everything it can quickly or it may lose the island forever. However, I feel confident that China does have enough firepower and capability to sink any foreign military that should attempt a landing and maintain its blockade indefinitely. So I’m a proponent of taking it slow and steady but I could be wrong and war is unpredictable.
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