Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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tphuang

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I think it's important to note that in any Taiwan scenario, china's goal would be to win convincingly. One of the big criticism from china side of Russian efforts is that Russia was not running a strategy that optimized its own success. Only when it resorted to using constant heavy artillery did its fortunes start to turn around.

It's quite clear that once we do get into urban warfare, there will be a lot of casualties on both sides and a lot of civilian deaths. I don't think we need to go into details of why things won't go well. As such, china will try to degrade roc army as much as possible before it attempts a landing. If taiwanese government does not surrender after several weeks of blockade and bombardment, then an invasion will happen. it seems to me that pla is fully ready to be the bad guy in order to complete the task as quick as possible.

The other lesson that china learnt is to make sure they have enough quantity before it gets into a conflict. That means enough nuclear deterrence to not fear nuclear blackmail. Enough missiles to disable air and naval bases all the way to Guam. Enough ships and aircraft to create a network that usn carrier groups cannot defeat. enough special missions aircraft so that they will always have an advantage in isr and ew. Enough precision strikes and drones to fully degrade taiwanese army. China would never want to be in a position where it doesn't have enough quantity to be in an adventageous position. Never want to run low on missiles, aircraft or ships.
 

FriedButter

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If taiwanese government does not surrender after several weeks of blockade and bombardment, then an invasion will happen. it seems to me that pla is fully ready to be the bad guy in order to complete the task as quick as possible.

Waiting several weeks in hopes that they will surrender is a foolish mistake, which is basically just going to repeat the exact same mistake Russia did. If there isn’t a conflict with the West yet then they will have time to move assets for a potential intervention to strike the invasion fleet at their own initiative and time of choosing.

The Ukrainians are losing the war yet they won’t surrender. The Nazis were losing the war years before they surrendered despite the casualties. Taiwan should not be given several weeks or months for the opportunity to dig miles of trench and build fortification from coast to mountain.

There is also another risk that the negotiations are just a ploy to buy time for a potential Western intervention and to construct more fortifications. The invasion and the negotiations should not be combined. They should be treated as separate entities.
 

vincent

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Waiting several weeks in hopes that they will surrender is a foolish mistake, which is basically just going to repeat the exact same mistake Russia did. If there isn’t a conflict with the West yet then they will have time to move assets for a potential intervention to strike the invasion fleet at their own initiative and time of choosing.
To think one can subdue a highly urbanized island with 23.5M people in a few weeks is pure hubris. Look how long Russian forces spent to subdue Mariupol, a small city of 0.5M
What invasion fleet when all PLA does is to bomb the shit out of ROC forces?
 

FriedButter

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To think one can subdue a highly urbanized island with 23.5M people in a few weeks is pure hubris. Look how long Russian forces spent to subdue Mariupol, a small city of 0.5M
What invasion fleet when all PLA does is to bomb the shit out of ROC forces?

Never said anything about trying to subdue the island in a few week. You are making up words I never said. The big risk isn’t whatever Taiwan or the ROC does. It’s the potential for a Western intervention where they have the advantage of when and the time of their choosing to destroy or seriously damage an invasion fleet while they sit at port because you banked your whole strategy that they will surrender.
 

vincent

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Never said anything about to subdue the island in a few week. You are making up words I never said. The big risk isn’t whatever Taiwan or the ROC does. It’s the potential for a Western intervention where they have the advantage of when and the time of their choosing to destroy or seriously damage an invasion fleet while they sit at port because you banked your whole strategy that they will surrender.
You do get it. There is no invasion fleet.
 
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