Not only that, at this point China's the last one able to break the Western imperialist stranglehold over the world economy and providing space for developing countries to grow instead of being permanent economic vassals to said imperialists, so China must be ready to fight especially given the devastation already wrought by the imperialists (e.g., Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan etc.) and of which the Russians and Iranians are already resisting.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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Not only that, at this point China's the last one able to break the Western imperialist stranglehold over the world economy and providing space for developing countries to grow instead of being permanent economic vassals to said imperialists, so China must be ready to fight especially given the devastation already wrought by the imperialists (e.g., Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan etc.) and of which the Russians and Iranians are already resisting.
Many key industrial chains have moved out of western countries, and a sudden supply shock results in a double whammy of:
1. Local suppliers, manufacturers and retailers not having product to sell, which then affects downstream businesses in a chain reaction
2. High cost of labour for local supply
Subsequently, trying to recreate local supply conditions faces the cost ($ and time) to set up plant, training, quality (this goes hand in hand with training), and logistics. Big piece on training and worker effectiveness because locals here are not as hard working or dedicated as their overseas counterparts due to work culture. Unions are also a major pain.
If Europe had cheap gas and cheap steel as before, their consumers would not be experiencing those higher costs being passed down to them
not just that, they need to first just identify:
1. what products are made in China
2. what products are made domestically but contain Chinese components
3. what products are made domestically of domestic components but contain Chinese materials
Without identifying this - a massive task - they can't even usefully get started as many projects would be white elephants that produce a product intermediate without another intermediate, which means the entire final product doesn't get made. this builds up work in progress (WIP) products, which paralyzes the just-in-time supply chain which has low inventory, because now you both have inventory buildup of WIP (which you may not be able to handle due to limited warehouse space) and inventory lacking of finished products.
This is known from six sigma training. it would cripple the supply chain.
There was a discussion on r/Vietnam on whether Vietnam should intervene during a Taiwan scenario. Don't know if it was asked by a Westerner but most responses from Vietnamese were like WTH? I remember the most upvoted reply was "Taiwanese are just Chinese on an island" and there's absolutely no reason for Vietnam to get involved. No one can accuse r/Vietnam for being China-friendly.
This is not to say that after a Taiwan conflict ASEAN countries will not strengthen their relationship with U.S. as a hedge against a potential expansionist China. After all there was a wave of ASEAN countries normalizing their relations with China following North Vietnam victory in the Vietnam War, all in order to draw China in as a counterbalance against Vietnam. But I don't expect any overt military support to the U.S. during the conflict. Even U.S. think tanks are envisioning potential operations to forcibly seize ASEAN ports/airfields to use them against China.
LOL of course not. If China defeats a US intervention or intimidates the US into not intervening, every country around it is going to ditch the US and align with China because China now runs the show.
At the risk of oversimplifying, I have to say that I think the reputational damage and loss of credibility would be the most plausible reason for the US to intervene in a Taiwan scenario. if the US loses Taiwan without a fight, it would be the moment the great American eagle is exposed for what it actually is: a paper tiger. In my view, that would risk the unravelling psychologically of the entire US position in Asia, to a greater extent than implied by the economic or military balance of power changes from the unification. Of course, the only thing worse than losing Taiwan without a fight is to fight China over Taiwan and losing that fight. The key here might not be whether Americans think the costs are worth it, it is more whether the US thinks it can win.
An old article which has an estimate of $1 Trillion+ to relocate supply chains out of China.
The figure would be significantly higher now and it also doesn't factor in higher production costs. Plus how many years would this take to do?
Fortune.com/2020/08/19/china-us-trade-global-supply-chain-decoupling/
fortune.com
escobar
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PLA logistics capabilities likely cannot support a large-scale invasion of Taiwan. PLA's ability to conduct a large scale combat operation in even their own backyard is, by their own assessment, from a logistics perspective getting better but still extremely dicey
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In some cultures, due to face saving and fragile egos, it is unacceptable to publicly admit the possibility of failure, so they spin failure in all sorts of different ways that don't use the word failure. other common slogans include "from a position of strength" "evacuated after being surrounded" and "a fighting retrograde advance".
in other cultures, it is OK to admit deficiencies.
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