The purpose of the "Ukrainian Gambit" was (A) to destabilize Russia, provoke a regime change in Moscow, return to the 'good old days' of the drunkard, control Russia's enormous resources, and as icing on the cake and jackpot corner China, and the consolation prize was (B) to consolidate the European Vassal Club, an objective that has been fully achieved.
I think the Ukrainian Gambit has clarified the Taiwanese Gambit.
I am not completely sure; but it is what I have seen with the Ukrainian Gambit: sacrifice a few tens of thousands of Ukrainians to hurt Russia but avoid a direct confrontation.
On the other hand, the general situation was "towards 1914": in 1870 the British Empire saw the emergence of a new power, Germany, and around say 1900 a hard core within the ruling class of the British Empire decided to wait for a propitious occasion to destroy Germany, a propitious occasion that arose when (1914) France and Russia agreed to attack Germany in unison.
But now the question is who will play the role of France and Russia ... Japan and Australia (!?)
By all this I mean that I am a little more optimistic now than I was a few years ago. I think that sooner or later we will leave this beautiful asteroid and painful world to its rightful heirs: bacteria. But honestly now I don't see on the near horizon that cataclysm. I don't know. "The future is in constant motion."
Personally I see the situation as more dire.
The US seeks to reshape the whole world under what it itself calls "the rules based order", the foundation of this order is:
1. The old idea of sovereign nations will be gone, instead, America will be first, nations closer integrated into US will be second, and everyone else will obey.
2. Finance and political function will be governed centrally worldwide from Washington. No transaction or political movement will be allowed without the white house's say so.
3. American companies will have primacy and the last word in all markets. Competitors are only allowed if US gives the green light, which can be revoked at anytime.
4. All countries must accept American jurisdiction over their home territories.
5. America shall reshape other territories as they see fit, merging countries or balkanizing them as they wish.
The world has probably never seen such a brazen challenge ever since 1941, when Germany proclaimed Europe will be put under it's "new order", except even back then, it was "just" Europe and not the whole world.
America has been way smarter than Germany at reshaping the world, using covert infiltration of international institutions and salami slicing rather than total war against other large countries.
However, US is now running out of small countries to salami slice at without accidentally touching powder kegs. Their recent actions have alerted the international community about the degree of US infiltration in international systems, they cannot move anywhere near as freely as they could 10 or 20 years ago.
Smaller countries and mid sized countries are rapidly heading towards forming coalitions, while USA is enforcing unity in its own vassals, causing some to split off and others to become more extreme. These more extreme US underlings such as neo nazis, salafists etc. create even higher chance of conflict, as they may drag America into a war even they don't want.
As long as USA doesn't give up on this ridiculous and totalitarian "dream", they are headed towards a full frontal collision with any country who values their own freedom. WW3 will happen if they keep pushing for more and mroe while ignoring international law.
It isn't about great power competition, its about 1 side refusing to accept anything except totalitarian rule.
