Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

caudaceus said:

It's been a few days but in case you haven't seen it

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532234389202952192

I saw some Twitter pundits stated that Taiwan should abandon purchasing expensive hardwares like F-16s and focus equipping all reserves with this weapon.

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This reminds me of a reply from the other day：

A simple translation：No air control and no supply or air defense,relying solely on conscripts to carry light weapons and portable missiles,but can defeat the Russian army,then we just need a lot of conscripts and a lot of production of portable missiles.

This would mean that all expensive and complex military industrial construction would be unnecessary, and infantry would offset the value of all tanks, aircraft, and tactical missiles.

The next reply was even sharper, "The Americans will be so shocked to see such a result that they will have to help the Russians achieve victory (or they won't be able to budget for a huge military)"

A good opinion what CN/TW could learn from Mariupol siege

caudaceus said:

A good opinion what CN/TW could learn from Mariupol siege

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Only problem I see with the opinion is the comparison of time it took to take Mariupol and the Steel plants. The Russians took the slow and steady approach in taking Mariupol. If the PLA is more dedicated to storming it then the whole scenario will change in how long they can resist in the cities.

Coalescence said:

Are the really learning the wrong lessons from the Ukraine War?

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Yes they are.

caudaceus said:

A good opinion what CN/TW could learn from Mariupol siege

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If the article is correct, then China's initial military priority in an armed reunification with Taiwan is to quickly seize and secure several strategic footholds in and around the main island, established a secured perimeter round the main island (no fly zone and sea blockade) to prevent outside interference before they can materialize, and then take her time to "pacify" the rest of Taiwan.

Didn't Russia initially tried to overrun East Ukraine with lightning speed, ran into stiffer resistance than expected, then quickly shifted strategy, including the use of nuclear threat, to stop NATO from interfering directly with boots on the ground. Now Russia is taking her time to "pacify" the rest of E Ukraine.

Rettam Stacf said:

If the article is correct, then China's initial military priority in an armed reunification with Taiwan is to quickly seize and secure several strategic footholds in and around the main island, established a secured perimeter round the main island (no fly zone and sea blockade) to prevent outside interference before they can materialize, and then take her time to "pacify" the rest of Taiwan.

Didn't Russia initially tried to overrun East Ukraine with lightning speed, ran into stiffer resistance than expected, then quickly shifted strategy, including the use of nuclear threat, to stop NATO from interfering directly with boots on the ground. Now Russia is taking her time to "pacify" the rest of E Ukraine.

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Russia as usual is strategically incompetent. First, you cut off possibility of outside interference and then you go and and attack the frontlines.

I trust the Chinese planners to be infinitely more smarter than the big brain Putin on this aspect. First you cut off any possibility of outside interference by the US and various puppets and then the PLA can take its sweet time (<1 year) at storming Taiwan.

Even then, Taiwan is not the main focus here, Taiwan merely represents the clash of China and the US at the Asia Pacific. If China was to ever attack, it should only do so if it feels confident to take the fight against the US in the whole Asia Pacific region, not only in Taiwan.

Overbom said:

Russia as usual is strategically incompetent. First, you cut off possibility of outside interference and then you go and and attack the frontlines.

I trust the Chinese planners to be infinitely more smarter than the big brain Putin on this aspect. First you cut off any possibility of outside interference by the US and various puppets and then the PLA can take its sweet time (<1 year) at storming Taiwan.

Even then, Taiwan is not the main focus here, Taiwan merely represents the clash of China and the US at the Asia Pacific. If China was to ever attack, it should only do so if it feels confident to take the fight against the US in the whole Asia Pacific region, not only in Taiwan.

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110% agree with you on the highlighted statement.

But being able to "fight against the US (and her allies) in the whole Asia Pacific region" is probably too much to ask, even for China. I would suspect that by the time hot reunification with Taiwan starts, China would have found some ways to help rid Singapore and especially Philippines of US and allied bases. That will leave just those north of Taiwan in the first island chain to worry about. And over there, China can get help from N Korea and Russia.

From postings recently by @ansy1968 , @Bellum_Romanum et al in the China's SCS Strategy thread, this may be already starting to happen in the Philippines.

Rettam Stacf said:

If the article is correct, then China's initial military priority in an armed reunification with Taiwan is to quickly seize and secure several strategic footholds in and around the main island, established a secured perimeter round the main island (no fly zone and sea blockade) to prevent outside interference before they can materialize, and then take her time to "pacify" the rest of Taiwan.

Didn't Russia initially tried to overrun East Ukraine with lightning speed, ran into stiffer resistance than expected, then quickly shifted strategy, including the use of nuclear threat, to stop NATO from interfering directly with boots on the ground. Now Russia is taking her time to "pacify" the rest of E Ukraine.

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Any island taken from Taiwan they'll never get back because then they'll need to launch an amphibious invasion while being shot at. If Penghu is taken, for instance, there's now a permanent artillery and drone base 30 km from Taiwan that splits Taiwan into 2 halves with artillery fire and making it impossible for south and north to mutually reinforce.

Overbom said:

Russia as usual is strategically incompetent. First, you cut off possibility of outside interference and then you go and and attack the frontlines.

I trust the Chinese planners to be infinitely more smarter than the big brain Putin on this aspect. First you cut off any possibility of outside interference by the US and various puppets and then the PLA can take its sweet time (<1 year) at storming Taiwan.

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On paper this sounds like a great idea. But how do you cut their access to the border with a really hard to maintain supply line. In particular to cut the border between Romania and Ukraine. The fact is the Russians went in with much more limited goals to the operation. The initial goal was never to conquer Ukraine unlike what the US keeps telling.

Doing that had a major risk, because I think Russia actually considers a conflict vs NATO more likely than what you seem to be assuming here. Those troops would then risk a simultaneous attack from the trapped Ukrainians and NATO forces.

gelgoog said:

The fact is the Russians went in with much more limited goals to the operation. The initial goal was never to conquer Ukraine unlike what the US keeps telling.

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Another well known strategic mistake. The moment you unilaterly start a war, you aren't able to determine when you will stop it. Russia might be content on achieving its limited goals, but who said that Ukraine is content with that, Ukraine might as well as continue the war ad infinitum. On other words, you can decide to unilaterally start a war whenever you like, but the other party has to agree if you want to stop the war.

So yes, maybe Russia's inititial goals were limited, but they should had taken forceful measures to ensure that if Ukraine really decided to go all in to damage Russia as much as they can, that Ukraine wouldn't be able to get supplies/help from external actors.

Strategic principles are quite clear. If you go for 1vs1, you take care so the other guy doesn't bring the whole gang with him to swarm you like flies. Its Putin's fault, hubris, and incompetence that has led to this.

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There are no excuses for China on this. Strategic war principles are pretty clear. First you get to (or close to) 100% certainty that you can deny external interference and then you can calmly start your war. The only other (IMO quite low) possibility is that China might be willing to show weakness in order to draw far away US forces near Taiwan where China has the biggest advantage and can quickly eliminate US assets.

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The biggest lesson that China can take from this war and apply to Taiwan, is to stay steady, cover all high possibility scenarios (including foreign interference) and keep doing whatever it has been doing so far successfully. R&D, procurement and joint-level high intensity realistic training. And yes, burn all the Russian books about their so called superior theories on warfare. Its a shame to even have to read them while watching this clusterf*ck happening in Ukraine.