Ladakh Flash Point

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Jiang ZeminFanboy

Jiang ZeminFanboy

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I've read the last pages and I suggest not make many posts (answers) with one-liners where you can edit it and make it one but a bigger one. It's hard to read 5 comments by one person one-liners where he answers sth or makes 4 posts by itself on one page in few minutes.
 
Nobonita Barua

Nobonita Barua

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twineedle said:
This is what Dr. Taylor Fravel, an MIT Political Scientist and China scholar, said. Most people here will probably disagree, but it is an interesting perspective.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360021978929893384
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You mean most of the people with common sense in the world will disagree that china has disengaged with india because of raising cost with these
dw5.jpg
dw4.jpg

It seems Mr fravel is desperate from attention the country which is by him, of him, for him

There is no competition. US is no country,it's a failed wannabe disneyland that had it's moment aftermath of WW2 due to power vacuum , period.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Kakyan said:
You were saying same thing about Pangong but this week gave you all eggs on your faces
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Indians are the only people who can lose a jet in combat, then shoot down their own helicopter in response, then get 20 soldiers killed running away in the cold with over 60 POWs returned, suffer drownings and heightened cold-induced injuries (even with those fancy expensive American coats LOL), lose hundreds of km^2 of land by their own account, and then go "Booyaa! We got an agreement to end and pull back! Eggs on YOUR face!!" LOLOL If China performed this poorly, half the people would engulf the government in riots and the other half would be too ashamed to come outside but Indians are proud of it.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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boytoy said:
From his Tweet, he clearly thinks China is the aggressor here, and that China is withdrawing due to long-term strategic consideration with the US. But it's not as if China and US were best friends back in May/June, 2020 when the whole thing started. Did China forget about this bigger strategic outlook to just to rob India of some negligible amount of inhospitable hills? For what?

China has nothing to gain by provoking India. China's 4 out of 5 strategic frontlines are ocean facing in the east, while the Indian border received the least priority. China never viewed India as an enemy.

On the other hand, India has so much to gain (or at least they think they do) by provoking China:
  1. By siding with U.S in the trade/tech war, India might get U.S industries relocated to India, which can help India industrialize.
  2. By winning a border clash India can demonstrate that they can be a valuable member for the U.S led QUAD coalition, which leads to further military co-operation and maybe even military tech-transfers.
  3. India believed that due to covid, China is weakened, and that political climate in China won't allow a prolonged border standoff; China is likely to capitulate.
China pushed Indian advance back to Finger 4 out of necessity to defend territorial integrity. PLA activities in Galwan Valley and Pangong Lake are based on "底线思维" or "bottom line mentality."

I think, in terms of the bigger picture, most people would agree with his assessment; that the withdraw has to do with long term strategic considerations visa vi the US. But his explanation doesn't really explain why withdraw now? India is in a tight spot currently and China holds all the cards.

Currently, China is arguably in the strongest relative position visa vi India -- In China, Covid is under control, the economy has bounced back; while in India, Covid is still spreading, the economy is in disarray, and farmers are protesting. If China drags this out for another, India would slowly resolve its internal issues, which leads to a stronger position on the negotiating table.

Does this mean India would be disadvantaged in the upcoming negotiation? Once again, China has never viewed India as an enemy. By voluntarily withdrawing now, China once again demonstrate good will and desire for amiable and lasting solution to the border issue.

What if an amiable solution can't be reached? Does this not put China in unfavourable position having to dismantle camps and infrastructure built up to Finger 4? Not really. It took what? Like a few months to build them up, and China can easily build them up again if the situation changes. The same can't be said for the Indian side.

So in conclusion, by withdrawing now, China maximize likely hood of a amiable solution to the border issue with India with no visible disadvantages.
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Nonetheless it is disheartening to see the Chinese map and word China erased from the fingers. The soldiers already suffered through half of the winter but now they have to go back...
 
Xizor

Xizor

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Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
If China performed this poorly, half the people would engulf the government in riots and the other half would be too ashamed to come outside
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Truer things haven't been said.

If China performed that poorly then itd be over for China and things would probably be worse than covid-19.
siegecrossbow said:
Nonetheless it is disheartening to see the Chinese map and word China erased from the fingers. The soldiers already suffered through half of the winter but now they have to go back...
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Compared to what's with South Tibet? No. That region still has dotted boundaries. This is piecemeal compared to that.
 
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