Ladakh Flash Point

twineedle said:

This is what Dr. Taylor Fravel, an MIT Political Scientist and China scholar, said. Most people here will probably disagree, but it is an interesting perspective.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360021978929893384

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From his Tweet, he clearly thinks China is the aggressor here, and that China is withdrawing due to long-term strategic consideration with the US. But it's not as if China and US were best friends back in May/June, 2020 when the whole thing started. Did China forget about this bigger strategic outlook to just to rob India of some negligible amount of inhospitable hills? For what?

China has nothing to gain by provoking India. China's 4 out of 5 strategic frontlines are ocean facing in the east, while the Indian border received the least priority. China never viewed India as an enemy.

On the other hand, India has so much to gain (or at least they think they do) by provoking China:

1. By siding with U.S in the trade/tech war, India might get U.S industries relocated to India, which can help India industrialize.
2. By winning a border clash India can demonstrate that they can be a valuable member for the U.S led QUAD coalition, which leads to further military co-operation and maybe even military tech-transfers.
3. India believed that due to covid, China is weakened, and that political climate in China won't allow a prolonged border standoff; China is likely to capitulate.

China pushed Indian advance back to Finger 4 out of necessity to defend territorial integrity. PLA activities in Galwan Valley and Pangong Lake are based on "底线思维" or "bottom line mentality."

I think, in terms of the bigger picture, most people would agree with his assessment; that the withdraw has to do with long term strategic considerations visa vi the US. But his explanation doesn't really explain why withdraw now? India is in a tight spot currently and China holds all the cards.

Currently, China is arguably in the strongest relative position visa vi India -- In China, Covid is under control, the economy has bounced back; while in India, Covid is still spreading, the economy is in disarray, and farmers are protesting. If China drags this out for another, India would slowly resolve its internal issues, which leads to a stronger position on the negotiating table.

Does this mean India would be disadvantaged in the upcoming negotiation? Once again, China has never viewed India as an enemy. By voluntarily withdrawing now, China once again demonstrate good will and desire for amiable and lasting solution to the border issue.

What if an amiable solution can't be reached? Does this not put China in unfavourable position having to dismantle camps and infrastructure built up to Finger 4? Not really. It took what? Like a few months to build them up, and China can easily build them up again if the situation changes. The same can't be said for the Indian side.

So in conclusion, by withdrawing now, China maximize likely hood of a amiable solution to the border issue with India with no visible disadvantages.

eprash said:

Why did China went with this agreement though? They hold all the cards here and it simply doesn't make sense, The concessions India got are just too generous

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That is because, China WON huge in Galwan Valley and Desprang, even in Pango Tsao. It has pushed indians to finger 3 ! Not bad.

BTW, it is India that started this disengagement talk.

You have to know that It was China being the aggressor in this skirmish from the start. China's main goal is to capture Galawan Valley and its secondary goal is Desprang. Both are achieved. Pangon Tsao is just a side objective which the outcome is still pretty good.

India is the instigator in this one because Modi started building road to the LAC without talking to the Chinese, Chinese are suspicious of india and acted first with deadly efficiency.

twineedle said:

This is what Dr. Taylor Fravel, an MIT Political Scientist and China scholar, said. Most people here will probably disagree, but it is an interesting perspective.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360021978929893384

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"Having just poured a glass of wine...China long realized it overstretched in May/June, but now amid “profound changes unseen in a century” and long-term competition w/ US, the cost of poor relations w India and/or risk of major escalation is much greater."

I actually agree with Fravel's main points in spirit, but not in letter:

1. China has pushed back hard and substantially against Indian aggression/incursion ("overstretched" is his choice of word). This is not something China "long realized," but has been China's objective all long. To put it slightly diffrently: two steps forward, one-step back.

2. The “profound changes unseen in a century” and long-term competition w/ US" is not something new. This was Xi's saying before the current Ladakh confrontation, amid the tension with Trump administration. There is a profound on-going power shift between the US and China. This is China's priority. As said, India is not China's primary priority, it's pretty worthless to invest too much attention or resources on India as long as it is deterred.

Now, I know Indians want to feel tough and strong, particularly knowing they're actually in a pretty weak and vulnerable position. We've seen they have behaved that way and have gone very far to even make up stuffs in order to feel that way since the beginning of the conflict. It's no wonder you want to find solace in Fravel's or others' words. I can sympathize with that.

But you should know India is dominated and over-matched by China in all dimensions. China has given India a face-saving way out. Do feel happy about it and celebrate if you so desire, but don't get carried away as to learn the wrong lesson again. China can move back quickly and kick your ass, just as it can quickly move out 200 main battle tanks. India is at best a second-rate power, behave like one.

weig2000 said:

"Having just poured a glass of wine...China long realized it overstretched in May/June, but now amid “profound changes unseen in a century” and long-term competition w/ US, the cost of poor relations w India and/or risk of major escalation is much greater."

I actually agree with Fravel's main points in spirit, but not in letter:

1. China has pushed back hard and substantially against Indian aggression/incursion ("overstretched" is his choice of word). This is not something China "long realized," but has been China's objective all long. To put it slightly diffrently: two steps forward, one-step back.

2. The “profound changes unseen in a century” and long-term competition w/ US" is not something new. This was Xi's saying before the current Ladakh confrontation, amid the tension with Trump administration. There is a profound on-going power shift between the US and China. This is China's priority. As said, India is not China's primary priority, it's pretty worthless to invest too much attention or resources on India as long as it is deterred.

Now, I know Indians want to feel tough and strong, particularly knowing they're actually in a pretty weak and vulnerable position. We've seen they have behaved that way and have gone very far to even make up stuffs in order to feel that way since the beginning of the conflict. It's no wonder you want to find solace in Fravel's or others' words. I can sympathize with that.

But you should know India is dominated and over-matched by China in all dimensions. China has given India a face-saving way out. Do feel happy about it and celebrate if you so desire, but don't get carried away as to learn the wrong lesson again. China can move back quickly and kick your ass, just as it can quickly move out 200 main battle tanks. India is at best a second-rate power, behave like one.

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It seems pretty clear to me what India's role is to bother China on the Western front during a Taiwan/SCS conflict should that day come.

They should behave till then.




This is a known now, so less certainty is good.

The main question for me is what Russia will do.

A few days ago, Indians were jumping up because of TASS reporting about 45 PLA death. It turns out that TASS used recycle reporting from an Indian news media.

Kakyan said:

India's defence ministry says it won't accept 1959 line and will continue to claim LAC is at Finger 8 just like China will continue to claim LAC is at Finger 2.

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They can keep saying that,situation on ground tells a different story

jfy1155 said:

A few days ago, Indians were jumping up because of TASS reporting about 45 PLA death. It turns out that TASS used recycle reporting from an Indian news media.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360959432612605954

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Eu DisinfoLab report also suggests how India creates a fake echo chamber to parrot fake narrative

twineedle said:

I'm not sure why you are talking about Galwan, where disengagement happened last July. Both sides moved back from PP14, the approximate location of the LAC, and clash, although Indian camps are closer.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1281829922168659969

Although, both sides have limited operations in Galwan due to the winter.

Don't know what you mean by Indian constructions being taken down, becasue the Indian beidge built near the mouth of the Galwan was completed and still standing. Although tbh it doesn't really matter now. All constructions in pp14 were taken down, but those were mostly Chinese. The only thing India had built was a temporary defensive wall.

Disengagement is also complete at hot springs, so only gogra is left. Although China is not on the Indian side of the LAC, but India still wants a buffer zone there to create more distance between Indian Army and PLA.

Overall is the disengagement on Pangong is completed, status quo ante as of February 2020 will be restored. Sounds like a win win for both, and not a complete Chinese victory like some are suggesting.

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No one is saying this is a complete Chinese victory. If anything it's a Chinese loss since China agreed to move out of the land it still claims (disputed) even though PLA moved in against the approval of India. None of us know why China agreed to a disengagement since pla sitting there for a year proved the positions were in fact tenable.

Bilateral disengagement could be what china wanted since the beginning because this now means India is not able to patrol in areas they used to but it may mean the same for China. The details of which are totally left out by both sides. Since China negotiated with a superior position I think undeniable, it only makes sense they got some bargain since I doubt the CCP is kind enough to let go of such an advantage even if it's done, it would be done out of some political or economic benefit, of which none are apparent.

The details do matter. Modi needs some pressure release. CCP may give him a bone with nice sounding disengagements but it could mean formal withdrawal from India and a pretend withdrawal from China. In a few months to years time it could be PLA patrolling up to finger 3 with India sitting behind it. Eroding the line using similar salami slicing both sides have used for decades.

Btw china dismantling a jetty and some tents doesn't mean much. I don't think they can dismantle a helipad. That's fake news clueless journos write to make it sound good for India. China took the disputed parts leaving some for India exactly like it wanted to define the lac back in the 1950s.

While there is some chance the CCP is just finding a bargain in the deal somehow or being uncharacteristically kind to what is now undeniably a nation that considers china their enemy, it is totally likely disengagement for India is real whereas disengagement by china is bilaterally set up to only sound good for Modi who agreed to give it all up.

Continuing the posturing is no good for Modi. He needs a win and only something that looks like a win. Trade a fake win for real land is possibly what he did.

China went in holding all the cards and the better conditions. India not as much and volatile conditions. Hard to believe china will let it go when it captured it for a year. Let it go for free that is. There was a price paid by India and no one will reveal lest outrage and further forced action by India which isn't something China would like either.

manqiangrexue said:

Oh, so Indian national and Indian sources are not to be trusted, right? I would agree with that LOL

By the way, I briefly rescanned those 2 articles and the only sources they cited were "Indian officials," sometimes with name and military rank, not any Indian media, etc...

From the Bloomberg article: "India realized it had lost control of about 250 square kilometers of land in the Depsang Plains, which holds key roads leading up to the Karakoram Pass, as well as 50 square kilometers of land in the Pangong Tso, Indian officials said."

So basically, you're saying that Indian media and Indian officials and all articles citing them are not trustworthy, right? You have a funny way of arguing for your country...

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Yes Indian claims on LAC area are not neutral as they have their own bias.