Ladakh Flash Point

ougoah said:

That's just how the CCP operates. Their ways are indeed very mysterious but they also seem to know what's up and plan surprisingly well.

I don't think China gets anything from withdrawing even though it is technically going to be China giving up "gains". I say that because from China's pov they're just retaking what they considered their's to begin with while leaving India still a fairly decent chunk of that disputed strip this whole time. China's claim run up to finger 2 iirc.

Jai Hinds will chalk it up to Rafales or Biden or US or undisclosed jawan heroism and effectiveness that mysteriously was not used for a whole year despite numerous attempts and changes in approach to repel PLA. That is somewhat of a loss for China but then again, if both are moving to pre-2019 positiions or so and India stops inflaming the disputed territory as much as they did between Doklam crisis and 2019, then that's relatively better for China not considering the gains.

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I wonder how they'll enforce the withdraw this time. We all know how it went down last time in June.

siegecrossbow said:

I wonder how they'll enforce the withdraw this time. We all know how it went down last time in June.

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With strict discipline. Hopefully the Indian commanders control their men this time since the previous violence erupted with their men attacking lone or insanely outnumbered Chinese construction workers or PLA communications officers.

indians probably won’t try anything now that pompeo ain’t around to give them false promises

Commander level negotiations, that had 9 rounds of it, after half an year...

to simply pull back to the original positions?

Nah, there are some details hidden there. Details which are fruits of those long rounds of negotiations. Let's be patient and see what "disengagement" means for both.

I think it’s possible the Chinese have partially or fully achieved their strategic aim... i.e. they rolled in with force... followed by engineers and construction workers... build, build, build and build some more... now they have permanent emplacements and barracks in place at the points they want, that otherwise would have been seen as a long-term aggressive posture, like the SCS military bases, if they had invested and constructed during peace time... now there is no more point in stationing as much troops there, so why not withdraw some of the forces back to the said, now permanent emplacements and barracks as it was intended in the first place... thus they now have groups of troops far larger, with far more comfortable and long term quarters, then before to protect the south-western boarder from Indian salami slicing... Additionally, now they can use the withdraw to extract any possible benefits, allow the Indians to save whatever face they have left and to demonstrate they are in fact not being aggressive and unreasonable in stationing that much troops and hardware near the LAC... plus ‘disengagement’ doesn’t really automatically mean returning to status quo before the incident, no matter how the Indians want to spin it... just that the troops wouldn’t be effectively face to face on a daily basis...

Further there is also the side benefit of the Indians having spent and still having to spend additional amount of resources to match infrastructure and long term operational costs of stationing larger amount of troops and hardware in those locations... troops which may have otherwise provided more flexibility to the Indians to quell the large scale protests... additionally in case of future war... the Indians would have built infrastructure and can be captured for the PLA’s own use, given that the area is not exactly the most assessable area by land and can be relatively easily cut off, if the IAF is stop in their tracks...

Now that we have had Doklam and Ladakh... I would expect there will be a future episode in Arunachal Pradesh near Assam in a few years time...

Kakyan said:

Currently tanks are being pulled back.
Just after Chinese realized Biden is not going to be soft on China, they accepted the disengagement plan proposed by India in November.
How predictable.

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Hahaha Sleepy Joe?? Trump wouldn't even dare fight against China in the conflict he duped you into and Trump's crazy! Who are you gonna look to next for help, Betty White? LOL

Indians always dreaming of white people coming to save them, sell them things they can't make themselves, etc... How predictable. You do realize that in a fantasy, anything can happen, right? You could even dare to dream that you don't rely on white people and can get things done yourselves!

Kaeshmiri said:

Disengagement begins at North and South banks of Pangong lake.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359459760840400897

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Disengagement = Withdrawal?

The devil is in the details. Time will tell.

siegecrossbow said:

That was genuinely a surprising development

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I don’t trust India will keep their word. Same conflict will happen again if India side does not change their policy.

Curling game was held at china-Pakistan border (克克吐鲁克) at altitude 4300m.